震盪中的投資紀律 - 投資
By Ethan
at 2020-03-07T14:58
at 2020-03-07T14:58
Table of Contents
各位午安,小弟剛出社會,存了些現金想投資,但信心(信仰?)不足,有些問題想請教大大們。
現在遇到的疑慮在於,過往所接觸的知識都推崇定期定額(或不定額)、紀律買進並長期持有,不預測市場走向,下好單便安心好眠,儘管有短期虧損也欣然接受,畢竟時間會還你公道,股價總會回到高檔。這是小弟目前所青睞的投資心法。
但前幾天卻被家中長期做當冲的長輩念了一頓,而我仔細想想卻也覺得很有道理,以下是她的想法。
由於疫情的關係,未來財報、股市必然受到影響,而且,(1)「在震盪時期進入市場是不明智的,應該在穩定後再來做長期投資策略」(2)「股票不能越跌越買,應該要越買越漲,才能證明自己走在正確的方向」
這句話讓我思考了很久,用定期定額平均成本的方法就是因為預測不了未來漲跌,放棄適時進場的時機,以時間去換報酬率。但如果未來是空頭市場(甚至是系統性風險)的機率較大,是否要現金為王(太菜還不能做空XD),等標的到達便宜價再加碼進場?
請各位前輩賜教~
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Sent from JPTT on my iPhone
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