美元下跌 阻止通膨? - 經濟

在台灣混口飯吃怎麼這麼容易?
這種翻譯程度也可以當記者,然後,鉅亨網再把它放上去?
然後大學生再傷透腦筋,想不透這個問題?

所以說,大學時老師總叫我們自己去看原文,不要看中文的東西,不是沒有道理.
看看原文吧.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-dollar-needs-fall-lot-further-here

重點在這邊,記者一輩子都看不懂的東西,所以它不翻.

From Goldman Sachs:

Historically, only a relatively small fraction of a Dollar fall is ‘passed
through’ into consumer prices. For example, a paper by researchers at the
Fed concludes based on data from 1981 to 2000 that a 10 percent decline in
the trade-weighted Dollar boosts inflation by only around 30 bps, a very
small effect. The small magnitude of this effect reflects a variety of
factors, among which perhaps the most important is the desire of foreign
exporters to preserve market share in the US, which means that they tend to
react to Dollar falls by accepting smaller profit margins rather than hiking
prices.

We estimate a similar magnitude for the pass-through as the Fed for data
through 2000, but when we update the analysis for more recent data we find
that the exchange rate pass-through into core CPI has fallen to essentially
zero. This decline in pass-through is put down to the changing composition of
imports in the academic literature, with the composition of imports changing
over time towards goods with low pass-through.

結論:

We think that this will help benchmark the Dollar decline we have seen
to-date, and also help put in perspective our forecast for a further 5%
decline in the Dollar on a broad, trade-weighted basis from here over the
next 12 months.

這時候再回過頭來看這段話.

This in turn means that – if indeed the Fed sees the Dollar as one of its
key policy levers for preventing inflation from staying below its mandate for
a prolonged period – the Dollar needs to fall a lot further from here."

意思是說,美元還要再跌一大段,才會變成Fed要開始注意的地方.反過來說,就是
Fed現在不會去管美元一直跌.因為它現在根本就不對通膨構成影響.




※ 引述《skyracer ( )》之銘言：
: 這是看到這篇文章:
: http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20101029/KCCC4ESNIZCMU.shtml?c= wgy?
: 可否有人可以解釋呢 ?
: 美元下跌意味著要拋售美元 或者 印製美元
: 應該是推升美元怎嚜會是可以抑制通膨?

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