期貨如何在風險與報酬間取得平衡 - 理財

By Dorothy
at 2023-04-14T00:14
at 2023-04-14T00:14
Table of Contents
(以下討論的是期貨無限轉倉)
最大報酬方面:
由於股市長期來看是向上的,每天的期望報酬都是正的
因此只在上漲的過程中進行再平衡加倉,而在下跌的過程中則採取buy and hold的策略
這樣可以避免承擔槓桿耗損,相比之下,如果在下跌時進行再平衡,就會造成報酬低於前
者
也就是說,如果目的是追求最大報酬,那麼在下跌時buy and hold可以最大化獲利
風險方面:
由於在下跌的過程中不減倉而不斷放大槓桿,將會導致面臨margin call的風險
雖然1.5倍的槓桿一般被認為足夠安全,因為需要下跌66%才會margin call,而二戰後歷
年股災最大的drawdown是60%
但是,過去的經驗無法保證未來不會出現類似全球戰爭等影響股市的事件,比如說如果台
海或中美發生戰爭,全球股市會不會出現大於66%的跌幅
這就像all in台股、台灣房地產而賭不會發生戰爭一樣,難道要把人生的命運壓在這種不
確定性的事情身上嗎?
想問大家覺得以下哪種方式更合理呢?
1.
使用1.5倍槓桿,上漲時再平衡,下跌時buy and hold(drawdown 66%以上,財富歸零)
2.
使用2倍槓桿,上漲下跌都會再平衡(雖然再平衡會降低報酬率,但因為使用更高的槓桿
可以彌補一部分再平衡帶來的損失,而且相比1.沒有margin call風險)
3.
200日均線以上使用2倍槓桿,跌至200日均線以下將槓桿降至1倍也就是無槓桿(屬於擇時
策略,原因是200日均線下通常會增加波動率,此時如果直接選擇無槓桿可以減少槓桿耗
損帶來的影響,而且也沒有margin call風險)
--
最大報酬方面:
由於股市長期來看是向上的,每天的期望報酬都是正的
因此只在上漲的過程中進行再平衡加倉,而在下跌的過程中則採取buy and hold的策略
這樣可以避免承擔槓桿耗損,相比之下,如果在下跌時進行再平衡,就會造成報酬低於前
者
也就是說,如果目的是追求最大報酬,那麼在下跌時buy and hold可以最大化獲利
風險方面:
由於在下跌的過程中不減倉而不斷放大槓桿,將會導致面臨margin call的風險
雖然1.5倍的槓桿一般被認為足夠安全,因為需要下跌66%才會margin call,而二戰後歷
年股災最大的drawdown是60%
但是,過去的經驗無法保證未來不會出現類似全球戰爭等影響股市的事件,比如說如果台
海或中美發生戰爭,全球股市會不會出現大於66%的跌幅
這就像all in台股、台灣房地產而賭不會發生戰爭一樣,難道要把人生的命運壓在這種不
確定性的事情身上嗎?
想問大家覺得以下哪種方式更合理呢?
1.
使用1.5倍槓桿,上漲時再平衡,下跌時buy and hold(drawdown 66%以上,財富歸零)
2.
使用2倍槓桿,上漲下跌都會再平衡(雖然再平衡會降低報酬率,但因為使用更高的槓桿
可以彌補一部分再平衡帶來的損失,而且相比1.沒有margin call風險)
3.
200日均線以上使用2倍槓桿,跌至200日均線以下將槓桿降至1倍也就是無槓桿(屬於擇時
策略,原因是200日均線下通常會增加波動率,此時如果直接選擇無槓桿可以減少槓桿耗
損帶來的影響,而且也沒有margin call風險)
--
Tags:
理財
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