有必要投資美國外全市場指數嗎? - 投資
By John
at 2022-09-04T01:07
at 2022-09-04T01:07
Table of Contents
※ 引述《foxishaonian (佛系少年)》之銘言:
: 正統的指數投資者喜歡說美國市場未來不一定勝過非美市場,因為美國曾經也有不如非美的時候,所以資產配置一定要包括非美,例如vxus
: 然而指數投資者一方面強調費用率有多重要,像0050費用率0.45%太貴了等等,卻另一方面一直買費用率+股息稅高達1.1%(以一般台灣人30%的股息稅計算)超貴的非美etf vxus,而且1.1%還沒把各國政府對於美國etf額外課的股息稅算入,如果算進去1.1%只多不少
: 反觀vti費用率+股息稅也不過0.47%就還算合理
: 1.1%的超貴股息稅明明就對長期的報酬傷害很大,可是為何卻很少看到指數投資人強調股息稅的重要性呢?
: 況且未來非美市場能不能贏過美國市場誰都不知道(至少過去平均報酬是輸的),有必要為了對於全球配置的堅持用兩倍的代價去買非美市場的指數etf嗎?
: (以上不考慮英股etf,畢竟除了費用率便宜,其他流動性安全性方便性什麼的幾乎都輸給美股etf)
有疑問的可以看看這個訪問伯格的影片
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8
認真講
1.要不要投資非美市場?
指數投資之父 約翰伯格跟你說 只要投資美國就好
美國以外不要超過20%
一開始的指數投資是指美國市場 (美股200年來 扣掉通膨 大盤年化報酬率是7%)
但現在還擴大到全球不挑市場
有風散分險 但沒有降低風險
非美地區有匯率風險 國家制度風險 地緣政治風險
可以理解為
美國風險度50% 平均分配給美國全市場
但投資全世界 是把風險度60% 平均分配給全球9000多支股票
以近幾次系統性下跌 VT沒有跌比較少
再說美國跟其他市場股票有週期性變化
但最後 還是美國市場勝出或打平
2.不只全球投資還要加股債比?
這些只是讓自己好過一點的投資組合
以全股票投資來說只要投資拉到10年以上 波動度就很小了
債券只是短期波動的緩衝 記住值錢的是會幫你賺錢的公司 不會是債券
當然抗壓性不足 還是可以搭債券
3.要不要選市場?
以VT裡面持股日本 南韓 台灣
來說 就整個讓人有疑問
三個持續少子化又產業集中又有地緣政治影響的國家
長期來講 以後國力會多強? 不是長投的好標的
投資當然要選市場 選一個夠安全的市場 好企業夠多 夠分散的市場
投資當然要分散 但是不是分散到危險度更高的市場
4.
綜合伯格跟巴菲特觀點
伯格:市場選美國夠安全
巴菲特:護城河夠深夠好有定價能力的公司
最佳選擇還是S&P500指數 VOO
--
: 正統的指數投資者喜歡說美國市場未來不一定勝過非美市場,因為美國曾經也有不如非美的時候,所以資產配置一定要包括非美,例如vxus
: 然而指數投資者一方面強調費用率有多重要,像0050費用率0.45%太貴了等等,卻另一方面一直買費用率+股息稅高達1.1%(以一般台灣人30%的股息稅計算)超貴的非美etf vxus,而且1.1%還沒把各國政府對於美國etf額外課的股息稅算入,如果算進去1.1%只多不少
: 反觀vti費用率+股息稅也不過0.47%就還算合理
: 1.1%的超貴股息稅明明就對長期的報酬傷害很大,可是為何卻很少看到指數投資人強調股息稅的重要性呢?
: 況且未來非美市場能不能贏過美國市場誰都不知道(至少過去平均報酬是輸的),有必要為了對於全球配置的堅持用兩倍的代價去買非美市場的指數etf嗎?
: (以上不考慮英股etf,畢竟除了費用率便宜,其他流動性安全性方便性什麼的幾乎都輸給美股etf)
有疑問的可以看看這個訪問伯格的影片
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P54trh0Rre8
認真講
1.要不要投資非美市場?
指數投資之父 約翰伯格跟你說 只要投資美國就好
美國以外不要超過20%
一開始的指數投資是指美國市場 (美股200年來 扣掉通膨 大盤年化報酬率是7%)
但現在還擴大到全球不挑市場
有風散分險 但沒有降低風險
非美地區有匯率風險 國家制度風險 地緣政治風險
可以理解為
美國風險度50% 平均分配給美國全市場
但投資全世界 是把風險度60% 平均分配給全球9000多支股票
以近幾次系統性下跌 VT沒有跌比較少
再說美國跟其他市場股票有週期性變化
但最後 還是美國市場勝出或打平
2.不只全球投資還要加股債比?
這些只是讓自己好過一點的投資組合
以全股票投資來說只要投資拉到10年以上 波動度就很小了
債券只是短期波動的緩衝 記住值錢的是會幫你賺錢的公司 不會是債券
當然抗壓性不足 還是可以搭債券
3.要不要選市場?
以VT裡面持股日本 南韓 台灣
來說 就整個讓人有疑問
三個持續少子化又產業集中又有地緣政治影響的國家
長期來講 以後國力會多強? 不是長投的好標的
投資當然要選市場 選一個夠安全的市場 好企業夠多 夠分散的市場
投資當然要分散 但是不是分散到危險度更高的市場
4.
綜合伯格跟巴菲特觀點
伯格:市場選美國夠安全
巴菲特:護城河夠深夠好有定價能力的公司
最佳選擇還是S&P500指數 VOO
--
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