曾式通道時間選用 - 股票
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By Hedda
at 2016-10-10T17:28
at 2016-10-10T17:28
Table of Contents
同指標進入週期分析的時候,
常會有你所謂的週期衝突問題,
(這個問題類似就是同週期不同指標的多空衝突)
簡單來說,
把週期分成長-中-短
方向大至分成多-空
會有很多種組合
而三個週期會互相影響,
長線趨勢會帶動短線,但是短線可能扭轉長線,
這也是為什麼當趨勢走多時,短線走空是稱作「拉回買點」,
而趨勢走空時,遇到反彈走多時則稱做「反彈空點」。
回到你的問題
技術指標的時間層級問題(我習慣把不同時間週期稱做層級)
其實也沒甚麼解決的方法,
因為技術分析(指標)重點在於輔助策略制定。
----
當大層級為多頭,中層級為多頭,小層級為空頭時該怎麼處理跟觀察??
我的建議是等待小時間層級由空轉多時進場做多,
或是等待小時間層級扭轉中時間層級轉為空頭時,
選擇觀望或是進場放空,拼看看能否影響長時間層級。
空頭則相反。
----
那當大層級為多頭,中層級為空頭,小層級為多頭時該怎麼處理??
這種狀況通常不會太好做,
這也是為什麼前例當小層級空頭將中層級多頭轉空時
其中一個選項是觀望的原因,
而在這個狀況你也可以選則做多,相信長線趨勢會把中層級拉回多頭,
或是當小層級再度轉空時,拼中層級空頭可以把長線趨勢轉空。
----
回到你舉的例子(僅提供思考方向,未有推薦含意)
10Y-多頭修正 5Y-多頭過熱 1.5Y-超跌區
我會解讀成
10Y-多頭 5Y-多頭 1.5Y-空頭
多頭修正,還是多頭,趨勢未有改變。
多頭過熱,也還是多頭,過熱不代表後續會轉空頭。
超跌區,空頭,超跌代表現在在跌。
這個狀況就是符合我舉的第一個例子,
等待短線翻多進場,或是留意中層級趨勢是否被扭轉成空頭。
----
※ 引述《mrright (帥過帥過頭)》之銘言:
: 曾式通道簡介:
: http://www.quamnet.com/newscolumnistcontent.action?articleId=3559180
: 想問一下,如果有一檔個股在不同期間的曾式通道中,顯示的結果多空互異,
: 應該選用(相信)什麼指標
: 例如中華電的5-year長這樣,在過熱區
: http://imgur.com/nYVVzYl
: 而10-year在牛市修正區
: http://imgur.com/5xqAbJC
: 但是1.5year卻在超跌區,如圖
: http://imgur.com/p4NwjIq
: 請問該如何解決技術指標的時間問題,感謝
: (另一個類似情況,我想應該是周K翻多,但是日K有壓力這樣?)
--
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股票
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