Re: 壽險保單貼現基金的風險 - 理財
By Todd Johnson
at 2010-01-21T22:35
at 2010-01-21T22:35
Table of Contents
※ 引述《badfood (我怕蟑阿螂)》之銘言:
: 基本上也沒有甚麼好補充的 這是日本匯豐提供給"機構客戶"和"私人銀行客戶"的產品
: 以上是我看這個討論串和推文的一些想法 寫得落落長 不好意思
好吧!本來不想說,但是老大既然沒問到資料,那我就直接說了。
這是一樁多種產業合作的集體詐騙。關鍵出在於餘命只是一種估計,
並不是一個可精確預測的事實數據。
顯然,按照精算結果,只要口袋夠深,已經度過可抗辯期的保單,購入這些
保單在會計上的「現值」是高達 20% 的。由於生命週期表並非一種市場均衡
後的產物,不具市場性,所以就算這些金融機構不管購入多少張保單,依照
非市場性的數據計算出來的「現值」是高達20%的,由於無法隨市場供需浮動,
所以供給與需求的均衡點是持續無法滿足。也就是說,能買到幾張,市場就
願意買幾張。
這些購入保單的金融機構等同有意無意「漠視」這種無限量購入的行為,會
拉攏越多死不了的人投入生產保單,也會鼓勵精算機構「稍微低估」餘命,
到最後,買進來的保單在實際上是生產不出20%的價值的,但是因為有利可圖,
所以就會繼續購買,也不管醫學不斷進步,死亡越來越不容易,保單真實價格
已經低於20%的事實。
這就是透過非市場性數據與市場落差來創造出來的利潤。一邊是明知現值
不斷貶落,但是從會計方式看不出來,所以無限量收購的金融機構;另外一邊
是努力吸引資金,生產出供給者的機構;一邊是要資金參與,協同一起生產
這種「很難死」的死亡保單。
集體詐欺嘛!到有一天,這個大水球就要炸掉,最前端的就要很清楚,因為
炸掉是整個市場,所以可以賺的時間還很長,但是一旦炸掉就是不得了,
要跑得快一點。
--
: 基本上也沒有甚麼好補充的 這是日本匯豐提供給"機構客戶"和"私人銀行客戶"的產品
: 以上是我看這個討論串和推文的一些想法 寫得落落長 不好意思
好吧!本來不想說,但是老大既然沒問到資料,那我就直接說了。
這是一樁多種產業合作的集體詐騙。關鍵出在於餘命只是一種估計,
並不是一個可精確預測的事實數據。
顯然,按照精算結果,只要口袋夠深,已經度過可抗辯期的保單,購入這些
保單在會計上的「現值」是高達 20% 的。由於生命週期表並非一種市場均衡
後的產物,不具市場性,所以就算這些金融機構不管購入多少張保單,依照
非市場性的數據計算出來的「現值」是高達20%的,由於無法隨市場供需浮動,
所以供給與需求的均衡點是持續無法滿足。也就是說,能買到幾張,市場就
願意買幾張。
這些購入保單的金融機構等同有意無意「漠視」這種無限量購入的行為,會
拉攏越多死不了的人投入生產保單,也會鼓勵精算機構「稍微低估」餘命,
到最後,買進來的保單在實際上是生產不出20%的價值的,但是因為有利可圖,
所以就會繼續購買,也不管醫學不斷進步,死亡越來越不容易,保單真實價格
已經低於20%的事實。
這就是透過非市場性數據與市場落差來創造出來的利潤。一邊是明知現值
不斷貶落,但是從會計方式看不出來,所以無限量收購的金融機構;另外一邊
是努力吸引資金,生產出供給者的機構;一邊是要資金參與,協同一起生產
這種「很難死」的死亡保單。
集體詐欺嘛!到有一天,這個大水球就要炸掉,最前端的就要很清楚,因為
炸掉是整個市場,所以可以賺的時間還很長,但是一旦炸掉就是不得了,
要跑得快一點。
--
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