FOMC會議報告翻譯 - 期貨

※ [本文轉錄自 Stock 看板 #1LGIa0rz ]

作者: sorryandbye (隨ｇ致富) 看板: Stock
標題: [其他] FOMC會議報告翻譯
時間: Thu Apr 30 02:54:53 2015
Press Release

記者會發布

Release Date: April 29, 2015

發布日期:2015年04/29

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March
suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part
reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the
unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators
suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth
in household spending declined; households' real incomes rose strongly,
partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment
remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing
sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below
the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in
energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based
measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of
longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

自從FOMC在三月來接收到的資訊，顯示冬季經濟成長緩慢，部份的原因可以歸咎於季節
性調整因素。就業成長步調和緩，而失業率穩定持平，在就業市場的指標範圍顯示以往
勞動資源並未被有效利用，而最近有些微改變，在日用品消費部分事減低了，而家庭真
實成長強勁，部分原因反映出能源價格下跌，而消費者的情緒仍顯高昂。企業投資放緩
而住屋情況仍顯疲弱。通膨率對會議成員的長期預估仍是太低，部分反映能源的下跌以
及非能源商品的價格減低；基於市場對於通膨率的回歸仍舊低迷，而基於調查結果顯示
長期通膨率仍在穩定範圍。

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum
employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment
slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with
appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate
pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the
Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to
see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as
nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level
in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually
toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further
and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate.
The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

委員會一致認同需要懷抱最大就業率(即:最低失業率)的希望以及對於價格平穩的展望，
縱使第一季出口成長與就業放緩，委員會持續期望政策的適切調整，會使得經濟活動擴
張在溫和的步調，而就業指標緩慢靠向原本委員會的兩個條件之一(譯按:通膨&就業)。
委員持續試圖(從以下兩個指標)找出風險:經濟活動的展望、就業市場需要維持平衡。
通膨率仍預期在低區間，但委員會預期通膨率理應回升至中長期2%(對應於勞動市場的
長期增長，以及短期的能源價格影響、進口品價格的浪費)，委員會將持續密切關注通
膨的發展狀況。

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability,
the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent
target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining
how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess
progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum
employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account
a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions,
indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on
financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it
will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when
it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably
confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the
medium term.

對於最大就業率的支持(即最低失業率)及價格穩定的狀況，委員會重申目前聯邦基金
利率維持在0-1/4%區間，對於評估(低息時代)我們該維持多久(實際的與理想的)，目標
仍為最大就業率以及2%長期通膨率，這項評估將會有充分的理由對通膨以宏觀看待，
包含了就業市場的概況、通膨壓力、通膨預期、各種各樣的金融與國際發展。委員會
對於適當的升息保持樂觀(作者云:前提是經濟好轉以及通膨加速並且失業率減低再來
是就業薪資當然還有不可少的初領失業金balabala)，直到通膨2%以及就業市場穩定。

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal
payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed
securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing
Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's
holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain
accommodative financial conditions.

委員會維持現有的對於再投資政策，即對於持有代理機構債券以及代理機構抵押債券，
以代理機構為抵押之證券、即將到期抵押證券等等，我們將會予以拍賣，這項政策確保
委員會儲藏長期證券的相當比例，所以我們應該維持時時變動的財務概況。

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will
take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum
employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates
that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels,
economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal
funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

委員會決定減少政策性調整，這將會帶我們步入長期目標--最大化就業率(重複好幾次
都懶得打了)_以及2%通膨(???????????)。委員會對於各種各樣的目標維持樂觀....
作為長期聯邦基金利率回到水準目標的保證，委員會將視為長期行動。

快速結論:
1.升息等晚點
2.2%通膨、極高度就業市場仍是長期目標(多高我也不知道)
3.拍賣短期到期債券以維持長期債券持有的相當比例

心得:
無
又再重複播放錄音機*100遍
而3帶來的影響為短期債券市場價格將會上升
即:短期債券殖利率將會再下降

原為誤植，應為債券價格下降，殖利率將上升(因拋售者眾)

感謝版友指教

此舉將會再債券市場的資金逼出
使得投資債券之投資人將資金抽離
轉往哪邊就不得而知了~

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