高通將搶單!外資降評聯發科 開出第一槍 - 股票
By Eden
at 2020-08-13T23:02
at 2020-08-13T23:02
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5607/4780213
2.原文內容:
繼外資圈紛紛上修聯發科(2454)目標價後,廣發證券今(13)日發布報告,逆勢降評聯發科至「持有」,開出調降第一槍!廣發轉保守的理由直指外資圈最看好的「華為禁令效益」,認為日前傳出高通將搶進華為鏈,恐對聯發科造成直接衝擊,因此下修未來獲利預測,目標價同步降為725元。
聯發科今天回神大漲,終場漲4元,收684元,廣發的目標價僅有5.9%上漲空間,不具備積極買進理由。
廣發表示,聯發科前波急速上漲,來自市場看好華為禁令創造獲利高速成長契機,但這樣的利多,在高通傳出派員遊說美國政府,希望供貨華為後生變。而此前廣發就已經預測,高通即使不遊說,也可能被特殊豁免,英特爾和超微已拿到美國政府批准,高通的4G晶片同樣有豁免權,未來5G晶片被批准只是早晚的問題。
廣發指出,近期華為推出Mate 40,同步採用麒麟1020和聯發科的天璣1000,P50也採用天璣1000,超高階機種則採用麒麟1020。但看向更長遠的未來,高通可能搶食聯發科的高階晶片份額,畢竟高通在高階市場擁有更大的品牌力。
廣發進一步分析,華為不排除已為高通預先開發平台,讓晶片導入時能快速接軌,最快明年中,華為手機就可能採用高通晶片。廣發預測,華為定價3,500人民幣的系列機種,將有25%至30%被高通搶下,雖然聯發科仍囊括大半份額,但前景樂觀度已不如市場預期。
廣發認為,若高通搶進華為鏈,單靠OPPO/VIVO/小米出貨成長,絕對難彌補聯發科在華為丟失的份額。預估聯發科明年5G晶片出貨僅1.84億顆,此前預測1.92億顆,同步調整聯發科2020-2022年每股純益(EPS)預測為24.2元、33元、37.3元。
3.心得/評論:
高通加上華為加上聯發科
華為禁令效應真的很顯著
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Sent from JPTT on my Samsung SM-N9208.
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