關於景氣循環投資法的一點分享 - 投資
By Queena
at 2022-09-21T10:32
at 2022-09-21T10:32
Table of Contents
如果房子的承重柱出了問題,那麼颳風可以刮倒它、大雨河水可以沖垮它、
台東地震可震倒它、老鼠打洞可以搞壞它。
什麼事件都沒有,它也會因為自然風化而塌陷。
提到景氣循環投資法,許多人總會總結出一個過分簡單的結論【你做不到擇時】,
這個事要做得好,不在於你要押寶抓中轉折點,
不在於預測什麼事件可能造成市場反轉、何時將反轉,
而是要評估有沒有系統性因素的轉變,會造成整個結構的不穩。
房子壞掉的方式有一百種,你沒有辦法預測是哪一種,
但是因為它結構性出了問題,你判斷問題將持續影響很長一段時間,
並會在某個尚不知的時機點上導致房子壞掉的結果。
透過具因果關係的系統性原理,這個判斷有很高的機率是正確的,
否則經濟學和會計學有何價值?
這時主動投資者的工作是逐步調整資產配置的比例,
避開報酬明顯不稱其風險的資產,擁抱價格顯得低估的資產。
一項典型的指導原則是,將股債比例限制在25%到75%之間調整,
平常時期,股債配置比例 50% : 50%;
投資者判斷危險偏高時,將持股比例調降到50%以下;
當因為長期空頭而形成的"廉價"市場出現時,將持股比例拉高到50%以上。
1. 預測景氣轉折是徒勞無功的,但判斷景氣的持續作用力不是。
它就像【今年上半年雨水持續乾旱,接著年底的報告出現柑橘產量下滑】
一樣有合理的因果邏輯,所有人都看得到老天不下雨,都知道乾旱已經持續半年時間了,
也不知道何時才下雨,但是柑橘的價格並不是在乾旱的第一天就一步反映在漲價上,
正常情況仍然是在乾旱持續發威的過程中緩緩爬升,有充分的時間讓你上車。
其實主動投資真的不是他們說的【你自認為可預測哪天是下雨的轉折點?】,
只需要考慮持續乾旱導致柑橘減產的可能性有多強烈,
是否調整資產配置分批提前買些便宜的柑橘,這就是主動投資了,
以當前來說,沒有什麼比貨幣政策和通膨更強烈的因素。
若事後印證判斷邏輯正確,自然能取得高於被動投資的成果,
而且過程也沒什麼神奇之處。當然失敗的結果也只能是自己承擔,不可歸咎於其他人。
2. 不可盡信效率市場假說,
市場不是有效率或是無效率,真實的市場是【足夠缺乏效率】。
你要相信的是行為經濟學,即人不是理性的,有各種心理情緒及認知謬誤,
只要市場還有貪婪與恐懼,價格就還有泡沫高估和低估,證券分析就還能發揮用處。
市場資訊也一直都是不對稱的,會認為一切已知資訊皆已反映在現價上的人,
你一定不曾有過在公司發布前先拿到財報的經驗;
也不曾有過在大陸廠房大火後,先低調慢慢賣完股票,
三天後喝茶悠哉看著"最新消息"出現在台灣報紙上的經驗。
--
業餘操盤手可以靠盤感交易,
全職操盤手不行,盤感不來,肚子還是會餓。
--
台東地震可震倒它、老鼠打洞可以搞壞它。
什麼事件都沒有,它也會因為自然風化而塌陷。
提到景氣循環投資法,許多人總會總結出一個過分簡單的結論【你做不到擇時】,
這個事要做得好,不在於你要押寶抓中轉折點,
不在於預測什麼事件可能造成市場反轉、何時將反轉,
而是要評估有沒有系統性因素的轉變,會造成整個結構的不穩。
房子壞掉的方式有一百種,你沒有辦法預測是哪一種,
但是因為它結構性出了問題,你判斷問題將持續影響很長一段時間,
並會在某個尚不知的時機點上導致房子壞掉的結果。
透過具因果關係的系統性原理,這個判斷有很高的機率是正確的,
否則經濟學和會計學有何價值?
這時主動投資者的工作是逐步調整資產配置的比例,
避開報酬明顯不稱其風險的資產,擁抱價格顯得低估的資產。
一項典型的指導原則是,將股債比例限制在25%到75%之間調整,
平常時期,股債配置比例 50% : 50%;
投資者判斷危險偏高時,將持股比例調降到50%以下;
當因為長期空頭而形成的"廉價"市場出現時,將持股比例拉高到50%以上。
1. 預測景氣轉折是徒勞無功的,但判斷景氣的持續作用力不是。
它就像【今年上半年雨水持續乾旱,接著年底的報告出現柑橘產量下滑】
一樣有合理的因果邏輯,所有人都看得到老天不下雨,都知道乾旱已經持續半年時間了,
也不知道何時才下雨,但是柑橘的價格並不是在乾旱的第一天就一步反映在漲價上,
正常情況仍然是在乾旱持續發威的過程中緩緩爬升,有充分的時間讓你上車。
其實主動投資真的不是他們說的【你自認為可預測哪天是下雨的轉折點?】,
只需要考慮持續乾旱導致柑橘減產的可能性有多強烈,
是否調整資產配置分批提前買些便宜的柑橘,這就是主動投資了,
以當前來說,沒有什麼比貨幣政策和通膨更強烈的因素。
若事後印證判斷邏輯正確,自然能取得高於被動投資的成果,
而且過程也沒什麼神奇之處。當然失敗的結果也只能是自己承擔,不可歸咎於其他人。
2. 不可盡信效率市場假說,
市場不是有效率或是無效率,真實的市場是【足夠缺乏效率】。
你要相信的是行為經濟學,即人不是理性的,有各種心理情緒及認知謬誤,
只要市場還有貪婪與恐懼,價格就還有泡沫高估和低估,證券分析就還能發揮用處。
市場資訊也一直都是不對稱的,會認為一切已知資訊皆已反映在現價上的人,
你一定不曾有過在公司發布前先拿到財報的經驗;
也不曾有過在大陸廠房大火後,先低調慢慢賣完股票,
三天後喝茶悠哉看著"最新消息"出現在台灣報紙上的經驗。
--
業餘操盤手可以靠盤感交易,
全職操盤手不行,盤感不來,肚子還是會餓。
--
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