重壓美國 vs 分散世界 - 投資
By Anonymous
at 2022-07-17T01:39
at 2022-07-17T01:39
Table of Contents
新手提問:
https://i.imgur.com/vIQYMzg.jpg
最近股災常常看到這張圖、注意到S&P500過去100年報酬率累積就是明顯勝出World Portf
olio, 當然過去100年不等於未來。但我想這證明說明美國長期經濟成長超越世界經濟平
均增長
但回頭看VT的持股,除了美國60% 其他國家比例都很少
https://i.imgur.com/d76xJFT.jpg
常看到舉例:金磚四國2000-2008績效超越美國一年10%、所以單純持有美國很危險、但是
你持有VT, 金磚四國應該加起來0.5%都不到、金磚那幾年累積報酬率100%好了也只帶給VT
十年共不到5%的總報酬、但美國不行(基本上此時大部分國家股市也不行)有啥用?VT報
酬率肯定也是爛爆
。
除非所有市場都等值分佈,比如美國25%,非美已開發25%、新興25%之類。這樣配置、應
該過20年你的長期績效應該會早已經遠遠遠遠落後於重壓美國、以過去10年非美跟已開發
國家原地踏步的股市,你們的報酬應該都差100%以上了、
當然還有一個可能、就是美元國際貨幣地位被取代、科技業也不再風光、經濟地位被中國
或日
本取代、或權重被另外一個強國明顯吃掉,但這麼明顯的東西、你自己調降美國ETF 比重
、移去比如VXUS, 應該會比VT自動半年一年調整一次快多了吧... 應該你反應再慢,也比
VT調整持股降低美股還快吧
等這一天發生、你累積的報酬率差異、永遠是你最大的優勢吧?到時候再調整綽綽有餘力
※ 引述《hawick (刺蝟哲學)》之銘言:
: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HXQIdSUGQ0
: 投資幾支股票才夠?全球分散風險無效?
: 結論就是全球分散投資降低風險效果
: 等權重優於市值加權
: 白話說就是VTI/VGK/VPL/VWO各佔1/4
: 優於VTI/VXUS各佔1/2
: 優於全部VT
: 但是美國近十年來的強勢表現
: 會影響投資人的判斷想要重壓美國
: 也就是說額外曝險美國期待增加報酬
: 所以想要報酬高或是想要風險低
: 兩者只能擇其一
: 分散投資永遠達不到過去尖牙股的漲幅
: 根據自己的屬性選股就好
: 沒有所謂標準答案存在
--
https://i.imgur.com/vIQYMzg.jpg
最近股災常常看到這張圖、注意到S&P500過去100年報酬率累積就是明顯勝出World Portf
olio, 當然過去100年不等於未來。但我想這證明說明美國長期經濟成長超越世界經濟平
均增長
但回頭看VT的持股,除了美國60% 其他國家比例都很少
https://i.imgur.com/d76xJFT.jpg
常看到舉例:金磚四國2000-2008績效超越美國一年10%、所以單純持有美國很危險、但是
你持有VT, 金磚四國應該加起來0.5%都不到、金磚那幾年累積報酬率100%好了也只帶給VT
十年共不到5%的總報酬、但美國不行(基本上此時大部分國家股市也不行)有啥用?VT報
酬率肯定也是爛爆
。
除非所有市場都等值分佈,比如美國25%,非美已開發25%、新興25%之類。這樣配置、應
該過20年你的長期績效應該會早已經遠遠遠遠落後於重壓美國、以過去10年非美跟已開發
國家原地踏步的股市,你們的報酬應該都差100%以上了、
當然還有一個可能、就是美元國際貨幣地位被取代、科技業也不再風光、經濟地位被中國
或日
本取代、或權重被另外一個強國明顯吃掉,但這麼明顯的東西、你自己調降美國ETF 比重
、移去比如VXUS, 應該會比VT自動半年一年調整一次快多了吧... 應該你反應再慢,也比
VT調整持股降低美股還快吧
等這一天發生、你累積的報酬率差異、永遠是你最大的優勢吧?到時候再調整綽綽有餘力
※ 引述《hawick (刺蝟哲學)》之銘言:
: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HXQIdSUGQ0
: 結論就是全球分散投資降低風險效果
: 等權重優於市值加權
: 白話說就是VTI/VGK/VPL/VWO各佔1/4
: 優於VTI/VXUS各佔1/2
: 優於全部VT
: 但是美國近十年來的強勢表現
: 會影響投資人的判斷想要重壓美國
: 也就是說額外曝險美國期待增加報酬
: 所以想要報酬高或是想要風險低
: 兩者只能擇其一
: 分散投資永遠達不到過去尖牙股的漲幅
: 根據自己的屬性選股就好
: 沒有所謂標準答案存在
--
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