論海運終將脫離景氣循環 - 股票
By Lauren
at 2021-05-13T21:47
at 2021-05-13T21:47
Table of Contents
一樣代po
市場充斥著雜音
許多說法認為海運是景氣循環股
航運漲勢僅是一波流
在疫情緩解後,海運終歸會回到過去
或是比以前好一些些的運價水準
更有甚者拿國巨之亂或口罩之亂來比擬
但也是因為過去海運20年來的確都是一波流才會有如此刻板印象
不過基於以下因素
海運終將脫離景氣循環股
進入穩定高運價的營運模式
1.產業結構轉型
海運產業從過去大造船時代最多934家
至今銳減為64家
至2020年造船訂單為近20年新低
表示產業運力增加極為有限
即使現在大量下單造船
每艘船工期達1.5年到2年
要回到過去殺價競爭已是不可能
況且從製造業缺工缺料的現況可合理預期
造船工期只會增加不會減少
而且很少人關注的是
一般貨櫃船使用年限為15年
十年來造船廠大量倒閉導致新船越來越少
相對地舊船越來越多
甚至航商為了減少虧損主動拆新船
未來五年非常多的舊船面臨拆船(運力減少)
此消彼也消之下,更加顯示"缺船"才是這波航運的關鍵。
2.運價飆漲原因
不管什麼價格都是供給與需求的拉扯的結果
國巨之亂是單一產業供需失衡造成的
其中不乏許多人為因素(產業老大村田減產、供應鏈囤貨)
因被動元件也不是什麼高技術產業
當時許多公司爭相購入製造機台及可跨入產業
最終供給過剩導致泡沫破裂,口罩之亂亦如是
然而此次運價飆漲屬於總體經濟因素
與國巨之亂或口罩之亂等單一低產業門檻的供需失衡完全不一樣
除了疫情之外,封城搶購物資、美國大撒幣等等都讓消費大幅度成長
中國出口最大港廣州藍田港、美西最大進口港洛杉磯港吞吐量都逐月創歷史新高
顯示運價飆漲是由於世界大量物流需求拉動
大量增加的運輸需求卻面臨成長極少的運力增長
自然讓海運艙位奇貨可居,運價飆漲
3.疫情結束後不會運價回落
許多人認為此次運價飆漲是因為疫情導致塞港、缺櫃、缺工的緣故
在疫情緩解後,港口工作速度加快,運價就會回落低水準
疫情嚴重的時候因為封城搶購物資導致物資(海運)需求增加
疫情結束之後反而更會因為恢復工作讓所得增加
所增加消費需求只會更強
可是做點簡單的總經功課就可以明顯發現
世界經濟成長率越高,海運需求就越強
前20年間的海運股價一波流都是在景氣衰退後的復甦期
但是因為船實在太多總是很快將需求消化完畢
最後運價快速回落,股價也快速下跌
然而因為論點1,海運運力無法成長
運力供需結構已改變,運價勢必無法回到過去低水準
3.消費端要補庫存、生產端亦如是
從美國企業存貨銷售比可以看到
零售業存貨處於歷史低點水準
宏遠報告提到要回補庫存依過去經驗約需1.5年到2年
所以消費需求可以支撐海運運輸需求1.5年到2年
可是這是只看消費面
要補庫存也要生產端製造的出產品
再看美國製造業客戶端存貨指數也是歷史新低
表示生產端完成品存貨極低
製造業已難以提供完成品供消費端消費
顯示消費端庫存回補將面臨嚴重挑戰
推論美國零售業存貨將大於1.5年到2年
海運未來運輸存在強大需求是無虞的
4.印度疫情日趨嚴重
鮮少人知道,印度人船員佔全世界船員將近30%
印度疫情爆發將導致海運人力短缺
進一步讓緊繃的運力雪上加霜
雖然是海運運價利多
仍然祝印度早日控制疫情
5.運價漲跌取決於全球市場供需,難以輕易影響
最強大的極權國家莫如中國
在2020年曾嘗試壓抑海運運價
找海運大咖來喝咖啡聊是非
表面運價是壓抑了
殊不知大量海運運輸需求仍讓海運航商的艙位奇貨可居
檯面下的附加費加到檯面上運價的1.5倍以上
以計程車來比喻
檯面上運價是計程車起跳價
檯面下的附加費就是跳錶跳到天上去的費用
你不付附加費就是用各種原因讓你上不了船
甚至現在願意付附加價也不一定上的了船
可見即使強勢如中國都無法抗衡失去平衡的海運供需狀態
6.海運運輸需求減少了?沒關係,航商減少航班
往年農曆年節顯著下跌的運價
而今年只有2%-5%的緩跌
這是為什麼?中國年節連假出口量減少了
依供需法則運價應該要下跌阿
不好意思,航商會自主減少航班維持運價
過去因為船太多了,年節即使減少航班只是為了減少營運成本
而現在缺船,減少航班目的是為了維持運價
否則歐美消費需求旺盛
應該要早點將積壓在中國港口的出口存貨運出去啊
但航商不是白癡
全球航商有默契地在中國年節連假一齊減少航班
以維持高運價,有錢大家一起賺啦
7.環保意識
國際海事組織(IMO)要求自2020年1月1日起船隻必須使用低硫燃料油以減低污染,
新船已經自備脫硫器,舊船必須進廠安裝脫硫器
舊船在安裝脫硫器前必須使用昂貴的低硫燃油
除了MSC跟長榮有大批新船之外
其他航商的船大多數都是舊船
舊船進廠安裝脫硫器工期約2個月
每年約有3-4%的運力受到影響,象徵著運力減少
這是現正進行中的環保影響。
另外前陣子歐盟決議課徵課徵碳關稅,減碳形成國際共識
單單海運產業排碳就佔全球的2%-3%
如果是一個國家的話是全球第七
未來海運勢必有減碳措施,否則或有可能面臨碳稅等罰則
如果無法開發乾淨的生物燃料
唯一解法就剩下船隻航速減速
https://ctee.com.tw/news/global/89290.html
(全球逾100家船運公司近日連署致函IMO,呼籲讓他們透過船隻減速的方式達成減碳目標
。)
https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5104611
(要達到聯合國減空污、減碳的目標,俞克維說,「減速是目前最好的方法。」)
如果,是說如果,真的發生了
海運將會成為全球最頂端的產業利潤掠食者,不過這都是後話了
最後再次強調,爆發性的消費即零售商回補庫存才是推升運價的主因,塞港、缺櫃只是推
波助瀾,疫情讓航運恢復健康的產業結構,疫情如果更加嚴重反而會降低準班率是不利海
運的,而各大航運聯盟勢必努力控制運量維持賣方議價權(老實說想增加運量也很困難),
不會輕易回到過去的買方市場,最終海運將維持高水準運價。
以上淺見跟大家分享。
--
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你整理再多分析給他看 得到的回應也只有套十年
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外資報告估2022年 6元 本益比10倍 60元目標價
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估不出來我還是看外資報告跟馬士基比較準
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一切
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長知識
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這才是重點 有銀彈拉高股價的是他們
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at 2021-12-30T10:18
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能讓潛在競爭者不敢進場的位置
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By Edith
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By Carolina Franco
at 2022-01-20T21:43
at 2022-01-20T21:43
大人要阿明阿榮下去就是得下
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-01-20T22:46
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at 2022-01-21T21:52
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at 2022-02-08T10:08
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By Frederic
at 2022-02-08T20:58
at 2022-02-08T20:58
蒐集網路一堆亂七八糟資料然後自我安慰
By Daph Bay
at 2022-02-10T17:30
at 2022-02-10T17:30
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at 2022-02-15T18:11
at 2022-02-15T18:11
By Isabella
at 2022-02-16T09:11
at 2022-02-16T09:11
運 夠了沒啊
By John
at 2022-02-19T19:38
at 2022-02-19T19:38
明明手裡拿一把爛掃帚
By Candice
at 2022-02-21T11:07
at 2022-02-21T11:07
By Candice
at 2022-02-23T07:08
at 2022-02-23T07:08
By Ida
at 2022-02-26T01:14
at 2022-02-26T01:14
重 不過融資已經比今年1月少了 其實有點意外
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-02-26T22:30
at 2022-02-26T22:30
By Sandy
at 2022-02-27T22:08
at 2022-02-27T22:08
By Carol
at 2022-03-03T07:38
at 2022-03-03T07:38
By Candice
at 2022-03-07T13:50
at 2022-03-07T13:50
阿布達比基金的出來了
By Edith
at 2022-03-10T05:31
at 2022-03-10T05:31
By Quanna
at 2022-03-14T04:50
at 2022-03-14T04:50
By Isla
at 2022-03-15T23:58
at 2022-03-15T23:58
然後 前妻就爽死了
By Oliver
at 2022-03-19T02:58
at 2022-03-19T02:58
先殺到剩10元洗3~6個月 之後再漲 撐得住?
By Margaret
at 2022-03-20T11:19
at 2022-03-20T11:19
By Quanna
at 2022-03-20T15:14
at 2022-03-20T15:14
By Charlotte
at 2022-03-24T16:25
at 2022-03-24T16:25
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-03-26T12:04
at 2022-03-26T12:04
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-03-29T03:10
at 2022-03-29T03:10
難道你真的要當傳家寶?
By Mary
at 2022-03-29T20:33
at 2022-03-29T20:33
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-04-02T04:27
at 2022-04-02T04:27
By Belly
at 2022-04-04T21:58
at 2022-04-04T21:58
By Hamiltion
at 2022-04-05T23:17
at 2022-04-05T23:17
By Quanna
at 2022-04-06T06:25
at 2022-04-06T06:25
By Jack
at 2022-04-10T23:32
at 2022-04-10T23:32
就算幾年後證明你是對(假設對) 那你要抱好幾年嗎
By Zanna
at 2022-04-11T12:01
at 2022-04-11T12:01
板
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-04-13T00:58
at 2022-04-13T00:58
By Caroline
at 2022-04-17T00:37
at 2022-04-17T00:37
By Annie
at 2022-04-21T09:20
at 2022-04-21T09:20
By Zora
at 2022-04-24T23:54
at 2022-04-24T23:54
假設台積電要先回去100元洗再上700
By Bennie
at 2022-04-27T02:47
at 2022-04-27T02:47
By Olive
at 2022-04-29T10:32
at 2022-04-29T10:32
怎樣套很多喔 需要壯膽嗎
By Dora
at 2022-05-02T15:38
at 2022-05-02T15:38
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-05-05T06:12
at 2022-05-05T06:12
By Tom
at 2022-05-05T23:34
at 2022-05-05T23:34
By Zanna
at 2022-05-07T13:57
at 2022-05-07T13:57
By Valerie
at 2022-05-10T08:35
at 2022-05-10T08:35
By Irma
at 2022-05-15T02:24
at 2022-05-15T02:24
一堆人反串都看不懂是韭菜還航酸了
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-05-19T06:06
at 2022-05-19T06:06
該醒醒了,不要真的套到邊傳家寶
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-05-22T06:25
at 2022-05-22T06:25
By Zanna
at 2022-05-24T00:02
at 2022-05-24T00:02
By Liam
at 2022-05-27T03:51
at 2022-05-27T03:51
根本沒有技術屏障的東西
By Daph Bay
at 2022-05-28T03:02
at 2022-05-28T03:02
造船也不難啊,開船也不難啊
By Delia
at 2022-05-31T21:24
at 2022-05-31T21:24
By Elizabeth
at 2022-06-01T17:03
at 2022-06-01T17:03
By Queena
at 2022-06-04T03:50
at 2022-06-04T03:50
By Yuri
at 2022-06-08T20:21
at 2022-06-08T20:21
人人都會種的高麗菜,最後就是放到爛掉
By Eden
at 2022-06-13T17:44
at 2022-06-13T17:44
By Gilbert
at 2022-06-16T18:47
at 2022-06-16T18:47
By Connor
at 2022-06-20T14:19
at 2022-06-20T14:19
By Hedy
at 2022-06-21T03:37
at 2022-06-21T03:37
By Lucy
at 2022-06-23T16:52
at 2022-06-23T16:52
By William
at 2022-06-26T23:35
at 2022-06-26T23:35
By Kyle
at 2022-06-27T11:55
at 2022-06-27T11:55
行呀
By Quanna
at 2022-06-29T18:29
at 2022-06-29T18:29
了
對吼我說太多了
By Lucy
at 2022-06-30T01:30
at 2022-06-30T01:30
By Christine
at 2022-06-30T16:48
at 2022-06-30T16:48
By Caroline
at 2022-07-03T15:39
at 2022-07-03T15:39
By Connor
at 2022-07-04T20:05
at 2022-07-04T20:05
By Kelly
at 2022-07-09T00:57
at 2022-07-09T00:57
By Quintina
at 2022-07-12T10:50
at 2022-07-12T10:50
我想航酸很多是被狂粉弄出來的
By William
at 2022-07-13T17:53
at 2022-07-13T17:53
By Oliver
at 2022-07-15T11:39
at 2022-07-15T11:39
不要用印象派來說一個行業
By Eartha
at 2022-07-20T05:54
at 2022-07-20T05:54
你是有看過高速公路塞車一星期的嗎
By Sarah
at 2022-07-24T01:34
at 2022-07-24T01:34
示一下黑單 結果相對這篇文 看著像野狗在吠
By Mary
at 2022-07-28T17:19
at 2022-07-28T17:19
水手明天準備補錢啦
By Anonymous
at 2022-08-01T20:30
at 2022-08-01T20:30
By Una
at 2022-08-06T05:52
at 2022-08-06T05:52
GN老蘇還是狂酸啊
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-08-06T17:29
at 2022-08-06T17:29
By Candice
at 2022-08-07T10:15
at 2022-08-07T10:15
可惜事實就不是這樣,或是你只看到眼前短暫的假面
By Lauren
at 2022-08-11T05:36
at 2022-08-11T05:36
長榮目前orderbook的運能有6x萬teu
幾乎等於陽明的總運能
這批預計明年年初會交船
這個劇情我2007年就看過了
接下來就看Maersk哪天帶頭砍運價
三大聯盟早就知道MARPOL 2020
而且在那之前所有下訂的新船都有考量環保因素
去年油價低點,其實改scrubber的效益很低
又有一堆國家禁止開式脫硫
所以變成大家也就乖乖排隊,能裝就裝
不能裝就買貴一點的ULSFO來燒而已
現在運能成長速度跟2007年速率完全不一樣
以前一艘頂多7,800teu
現在歐美主流12,000teu算基本盤了
大船營運變成每航次要填滿倉位壓力更大
等到塞港解決,掛靠準點提升以後
運價腰斬再腰斬是遲早的事
By Mia
at 2022-08-14T11:31
at 2022-08-14T11:31
By Emma
at 2022-08-17T09:51
at 2022-08-17T09:51
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-08-19T09:22
at 2022-08-19T09:22
沒用還是看戲就好
By Belly
at 2022-08-23T02:58
at 2022-08-23T02:58
By Jacky
at 2022-08-27T23:32
at 2022-08-27T23:32
By Odelette
at 2022-08-29T16:01
at 2022-08-29T16:01
By Robert
at 2022-09-01T22:34
at 2022-09-01T22:34
By Ivy
at 2022-09-04T18:28
at 2022-09-04T18:28
運價維持高點本身就是錯誤假設
alpha liner top 100上面orderbook
數字一清二楚,大家訂單早就掛好等交船
而且很平均2M,OCEAN,THE三大聯盟都會增加50萬teu以
上
運能膨脹是現在進行式
現在主流船廠造一艘萬teu以上的船
快的話18個月就能從放龍骨到交船
而且大航商要淘汰高船齡的船
只要下放到比較冷門航線甚至二手賣掉就好
二手市場被其他經營近洋線航商買走
這艘船的運能依然在市場上沒有消失
By Hardy
at 2022-09-05T23:42
at 2022-09-05T23:42
人反而不太好看 因為你講的深度只有 「垃圾公司超
漲了」 沒其他內容了
By Freda
at 2022-09-09T11:43
at 2022-09-09T11:43
By Valerie
at 2022-09-14T04:58
at 2022-09-14T04:58
By Victoria
at 2022-09-15T22:17
at 2022-09-15T22:17
By Eartha
at 2022-09-19T21:53
at 2022-09-19T21:53
又砸盤~
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-24T11:28
at 2022-09-24T11:28
By Susan
at 2022-09-25T13:44
at 2022-09-25T13:44
還不如無腦台積
By Damian
at 2022-09-30T02:12
at 2022-09-30T02:12
By Charlotte
at 2022-10-01T19:36
at 2022-10-01T19:36
現在ORDERBOOK不到50萬TEU
增加最多的是OCEAN聯盟,粗估破百萬
2M大概80萬TEU
現在市場一定比2016年健康啦
但是能健康多久就要看大家自制能力
如果大家一直想不開狂造船
那市場早晚回去那個死樣子
By Connor
at 2022-10-05T15:14
at 2022-10-05T15:14
這種飆股飆完了才在那邊分析,只會好笑
那麼會分析,陽明5元長榮10元怎麼不分析
By Jacob
at 2022-10-08T01:49
at 2022-10-08T01:49
By Andy
at 2022-10-12T14:30
at 2022-10-12T14:30
分析好嗎,分析只是比較厲害?
By Irma
at 2022-10-17T02:13
at 2022-10-17T02:13
當初美德醫,合一下山階段也一堆分析啊
By Hazel
at 2022-10-19T00:36
at 2022-10-19T00:36
你說的對~
By Eden
at 2022-10-21T01:51
at 2022-10-21T01:51
By David
at 2022-10-22T18:17
at 2022-10-22T18:17
By Michael
at 2022-10-23T22:32
at 2022-10-23T22:32
By Catherine
at 2022-10-26T20:35
at 2022-10-26T20:35
反來覆去很沒營養
By Rachel
at 2022-10-28T03:04
at 2022-10-28T03:04
By Daniel
at 2022-10-31T10:54
at 2022-10-31T10:54
By Oscar
at 2022-11-05T07:26
at 2022-11-05T07:26
By George
at 2022-11-08T10:40
at 2022-11-08T10:40
注運價以外也很重要的一件事
By Regina
at 2022-11-11T04:00
at 2022-11-11T04:00
說造船廠變少,所以船不夠,那這跟村田減產不是同
件事嗎? 這波純粹就是疫情大家硬拉貨補庫存,大家
By Anthony
at 2022-11-12T01:34
at 2022-11-12T01:34
巨的經驗還歷歷在目
By Elma
at 2022-11-14T03:18
at 2022-11-14T03:18
改變產業本質?拜託了解他商業模式好嗎
By Brianna
at 2022-11-18T16:55
at 2022-11-18T16:55
可以吃到死了
By Anthony
at 2022-11-21T15:48
at 2022-11-21T15:48
By Brianna
at 2022-11-25T22:18
at 2022-11-25T22:18
By Frederica
at 2022-11-30T16:54
at 2022-11-30T16:54
經慘十年 你們都不看好這行業了 誰要砸錢砸時間進
來啊
By Elizabeth
at 2022-12-02T05:37
at 2022-12-02T05:37
By Eden
at 2022-12-03T11:54
at 2022-12-03T11:54
By Delia
at 2022-12-05T21:32
at 2022-12-05T21:32
一直嘴國巨 長榮本益比要不要也比照國巨
By Connor
at 2022-12-08T18:23
at 2022-12-08T18:23
市的高手
By Kristin
at 2022-12-09T06:29
at 2022-12-09T06:29
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-12-11T01:30
at 2022-12-11T01:30
到幾倍本益比,長榮陽明要不要比照ㄏ
至於某個秀不出單小丑就只會幻想而已,可憐這樣的窮
By Iris
at 2022-12-11T08:22
at 2022-12-11T08:22
我都已經今年獲利2468109,這小丑還只能天天YY別人
賠錢,幫QQ
更不用算上去年鬆哥推長榮時就已經開始賺,小丑泡在
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-12-11T16:41
at 2022-12-11T16:41
By Rosalind
at 2022-12-14T21:02
at 2022-12-14T21:02
By Ethan
at 2022-12-16T21:53
at 2022-12-16T21:53
神標的ㄏㄏ
By Queena
at 2022-12-21T14:15
at 2022-12-21T14:15
By Quintina
at 2022-12-23T05:46
at 2022-12-23T05:46
船舶大型化以後,大家才發現15米吃水
的船席不夠用,橋式機吊櫃效率不夠
造船簡單,但是你要各國港口挖深船席
擴大港埠設施投資
目前全世界也只有中國花得起而已
其他國家光浚深維持港埠機能就很喘了
所以說塞港要解決其實也沒那麼容易
By Poppy
at 2022-12-24T02:50
at 2022-12-24T02:50
價的
By Dora
at 2022-12-28T21:51
at 2022-12-28T21:51
歷史總是驚人的相似
By Lily
at 2022-12-31T20:19
at 2022-12-31T20:19
By Wallis
at 2023-01-01T07:24
at 2023-01-01T07:24
兩根跌停
By Connor
at 2023-01-05T11:37
at 2023-01-05T11:37
By Ursula
at 2023-01-10T04:52
at 2023-01-10T04:52
碼大盤等等一大堆
By Jessica
at 2023-01-14T20:32
at 2023-01-14T20:32
By Carol
at 2023-01-15T19:37
at 2023-01-15T19:37
By Steve
at 2023-01-17T22:46
at 2023-01-17T22:46
By Mason
at 2023-01-20T22:23
at 2023-01-20T22:23
你要知道長榮+陽明佔了整個台股將近20%成交量 對整
個台灣 整個股市出現疑慮時 就是從這裡開始爆
By Daph Bay
at 2023-01-21T12:39
at 2023-01-21T12:39
By Isla
at 2023-01-25T04:36
at 2023-01-25T04:36
By Wallis
at 2023-01-25T21:54
at 2023-01-25T21:54
看就知道巷子內的
短線反彈是給你跑的
By Suhail Hany
at 2023-01-25T23:36
at 2023-01-25T23:36
By Barb Cronin
at 2023-01-27T19:57
at 2023-01-27T19:57
By Olive
at 2023-01-28T23:10
at 2023-01-28T23:10
By Isabella
at 2023-01-31T18:12
at 2023-01-31T18:12
By Hedy
at 2023-02-05T12:11
at 2023-02-05T12:11
船訂單占總運力的比例
By Rebecca
at 2023-02-08T18:39
at 2023-02-08T18:39
保因素等,現在接著缺船,港口效率起不來,港口優化
可不是一年半載就可以完成的
By Thomas
at 2023-02-11T13:44
at 2023-02-11T13:44
運費漲受傷的是美國進口商
By Rae
at 2023-02-15T05:50
at 2023-02-15T05:50
By Freda
at 2023-02-19T11:50
at 2023-02-19T11:50
By Harry
at 2023-02-22T23:12
at 2023-02-22T23:12
By Xanthe
at 2023-02-24T06:10
at 2023-02-24T06:10
By Kama
at 2023-02-24T13:23
at 2023-02-24T13:23
By Edith
at 2023-02-26T02:36
at 2023-02-26T02:36
By Victoria
at 2023-02-27T23:21
at 2023-02-27T23:21
By Ivy
at 2023-03-03T02:33
at 2023-03-03T02:33
By Xanthe
at 2023-03-07T17:49
at 2023-03-07T17:49
By Sarah
at 2023-03-08T05:22
at 2023-03-08T05:22
By Margaret
at 2023-03-10T14:09
at 2023-03-10T14:09
By Susan
at 2023-03-10T23:48
at 2023-03-10T23:48
By Agnes
at 2023-03-15T14:13
at 2023-03-15T14:13
By Margaret
at 2023-03-18T15:53
at 2023-03-18T15:53
By Zanna
at 2023-03-23T01:35
at 2023-03-23T01:35
By Joe
at 2023-03-24T14:05
at 2023-03-24T14:05
By Zanna
at 2023-03-26T06:18
at 2023-03-26T06:18
By Dora
at 2023-03-31T00:29
at 2023-03-31T00:29
By Genevieve
at 2023-04-03T21:03
at 2023-04-03T21:03
By Jacob
at 2023-04-05T11:21
at 2023-04-05T11:21
By Ida
at 2023-04-09T07:00
at 2023-04-09T07:00
By Caitlin
at 2023-04-10T19:17
at 2023-04-10T19:17
By Hedda
at 2023-04-14T10:00
at 2023-04-14T10:00
By Elvira
at 2023-04-19T04:09
at 2023-04-19T04:09
By Odelette
at 2023-04-21T23:28
at 2023-04-21T23:28
By Regina
at 2023-04-24T08:33
at 2023-04-24T08:33
By Vanessa
at 2023-04-25T19:09
at 2023-04-25T19:09
By Agatha
at 2023-04-28T03:51
at 2023-04-28T03:51
By Brianna
at 2023-04-30T21:52
at 2023-04-30T21:52
要大家有默契的把運價維持在高檔就好R
By Kyle
at 2023-05-05T17:49
at 2023-05-05T17:49
By Kyle
at 2023-05-10T08:18
at 2023-05-10T08:18
By Charlotte
at 2023-05-13T18:15
at 2023-05-13T18:15
而改變未來的經營模式 這都不得而知
By Susan
at 2023-05-13T23:44
at 2023-05-13T23:44
這時就算有白目應該也會收斂一點
By Hardy
at 2023-05-15T14:54
at 2023-05-15T14:54
By Eartha
at 2023-05-17T22:48
at 2023-05-17T22:48
By Lydia
at 2023-05-18T13:26
at 2023-05-18T13:26
By Ursula
at 2023-05-22T12:34
at 2023-05-22T12:34
By Susan
at 2023-05-26T20:29
at 2023-05-26T20:29
By Skylar Davis
at 2023-05-29T04:28
at 2023-05-29T04:28
阿
By Charlotte
at 2023-06-01T06:26
at 2023-06-01T06:26
???
By Puput
at 2023-06-03T17:00
at 2023-06-03T17:00
By Liam
at 2023-06-07T17:05
at 2023-06-07T17:05
By Olivia
at 2023-06-11T02:14
at 2023-06-11T02:14
By Hedwig
at 2023-06-12T10:01
at 2023-06-12T10:01
By Zora
at 2023-06-16T13:48
at 2023-06-16T13:48
By Queena
at 2023-06-18T18:36
at 2023-06-18T18:36
By Damian
at 2023-06-19T04:01
at 2023-06-19T04:01
By Hedy
at 2023-06-22T23:26
at 2023-06-22T23:26
By Edwina
at 2023-06-23T15:40
at 2023-06-23T15:40
By Jake
at 2023-06-28T04:03
at 2023-06-28T04:03
By Hamiltion
at 2023-07-01T14:12
at 2023-07-01T14:12
By Isabella
at 2023-07-03T20:20
at 2023-07-03T20:20
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