花旗跳水式降評鴻海、TPK - 股票
By Steve
at 2018-04-18T08:34
at 2018-04-18T08:34
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20180418000207-260202
2.原文內容:
花旗環球證券出重手,一口氣把蘋果供應鏈指標股鴻海與TPK-KY投資評等由「買進」,跳
水式砍至「賣出」。其中,對鴻海推測未來12個月合理股價75元是外資圈最低,TPK-KY的
股價估值則是從原本的118元,攔腰斬至60元。
鴻海與TPK-KY昨(17)日同步下挫,外資籌碼逃竄,外資單日賣超鴻海19,412張,是賣超
排行首位;對TPK-KY也大賣5,598張。2檔個股收盤價各是86.5與71元,離前波低點86.1、
64.7元十分接近,面臨破底危機。
花旗環球此番大舉調整對供應鏈看法,根據以下3大邏輯:1.蘋果6.1吋LCD版iPhone啟動
量產晚、6.5吋OLED版iPhone售價貴,不利銷售揚升。2.蘋果積極進行分散供應鏈策略,
一線供應商難逃訂單被瓜分。
3.根據2014~2016年經驗,供應鏈為了應付iPhone 6大賣擴增產能,後來當遇到6S、7銷
售疲弱時,變成要想盡辦法降價搶單維持產能利用率。目前看來,供應商既面臨價格競爭
,又得衝量以填滿去年擴充的產能,均會壓抑毛利。
花旗環球證券科技產業分析師楊維倫進一步解釋,鴻海眼前不只有市占下降、價格競爭利
空,還有2大不確定因素,導致資金較戒慎。
首先,鴻海旗下FII於大陸掛牌,稀釋鴻海獲利。其次,鴻海觸角延伸到電信、機器人、
電動車、軟體服務、面板等業務,儘管執行力向來是鴻海公認優勢,但這些新事業還需時
間孵化,不太可能抵消蘋果2018、2019年下滑的侵擾。
TPK-KY自2013年以來,對資本支出控管相當不錯,然花旗環球發現,TPK-KY今年資本支出
占營收比重從2017年的3.4%,提高到7.8%;就算out-cell觸控模組是一商機,但其實更
是一把雙面刃(double-edged sword),尤其GIS-KY價格競爭來勢洶洶,TPK-KY未必討得
到便宜。
根據外資估算,TPK-KY去年每股純益6.63元,由虧轉盈後,但接下來獲利表現恐不進反退
,2018~2020年每股純益是6.59元、6.57元與6.15元,缺乏動能。
3.心得/評論:
花旗嚴選 花旗推薦... 賣出 ~
--
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