美股恐再跌4成!華爾街大佬:標普500最慘 - 股票
By Rachel
at 2020-04-06T17:25
at 2020-04-06T17:25
Table of Contents
※ 引述《opie (giddy)》之銘言:
: : 再跌約1000點,因此,建議投資人應把重點放在債券上。
: : 麥納德指出,受疫情重創的航空業、酒店業股票現在是高風險賭注,因為其中一些企業恐
: : 永遠不會回到疫情爆發前的水平。麥納德還估計,今年美國國內生產總值(GDP)將萎縮
: : 10%以上。
: : 3.心得/評論:
: : 麥納德警告,當失業率上升、經濟增長和企業盈利萎縮時,市場將出現另1輪恐慌
: 我心中有幾點疑惑
: 1.美國從29000跌下來的期間,病患人數跟死亡人數都遠比現在少。
: 2.美國現在就是統計病患人數直線上升,死亡人數直線上升
: 但是股市也跟著這些統計數字上升而逐漸回穩。
: 為什麼呢?難道股市早已在病患人數跟死亡人數上升前就提前反應了第一點嗎?
: 3.但新冠病毒在去年12月就開始了,中國新年期間,也就是1月就開始全國封城了,
: 結果美股2月繼續漲,經濟學人總編接受訪問就說投資人太樂觀了,
: 而美股直到3月才反應而大幅向下修正,股市不都提前反應嗎?
: 為什麼1月中國都封城了,直到3月才反應呢?
: 4.現在美股小道瓊正大漲快800點,是否又是投資人太過樂觀?
: 彷彿又回到2月的時候,不理中國的新冠肺炎,而刻正大漲中?
股價跟疫情正相關沒那麼大
現在股價會漲是因為美國無限QE的緣故
你有個絕對不會倒也絕不會催款的債權人
美國人當然是直接借爆
但麥納德點出重點於“當失業率上升、經濟增長和企業盈利萎縮時”
沒有實質的經濟活動,這個泡泡遲早會破
也是為什麼各國政府都想盡快復工的原因
FED跟美國政府不是笨蛋
他們願意砸那個多錢代表相對應的風險就是這麼大
我認為假如疫情舒緩速度趕不上復工期限
美國政府勢必會有更激烈的行動(這聽起來好像廢話)
反正拜大灑幣所賜現在為何不進去賺些便當錢
台股又有感冒液護盤,真的崩潰了要跑也還來的及不是
自己現在就玩隔日沖,然後週末不留,邊看邊做
看不懂就空手不就好了
--
: : 再跌約1000點,因此,建議投資人應把重點放在債券上。
: : 麥納德指出,受疫情重創的航空業、酒店業股票現在是高風險賭注,因為其中一些企業恐
: : 永遠不會回到疫情爆發前的水平。麥納德還估計,今年美國國內生產總值(GDP)將萎縮
: : 10%以上。
: : 3.心得/評論:
: : 麥納德警告,當失業率上升、經濟增長和企業盈利萎縮時,市場將出現另1輪恐慌
: 我心中有幾點疑惑
: 1.美國從29000跌下來的期間,病患人數跟死亡人數都遠比現在少。
: 2.美國現在就是統計病患人數直線上升,死亡人數直線上升
: 但是股市也跟著這些統計數字上升而逐漸回穩。
: 為什麼呢?難道股市早已在病患人數跟死亡人數上升前就提前反應了第一點嗎?
: 3.但新冠病毒在去年12月就開始了,中國新年期間,也就是1月就開始全國封城了,
: 結果美股2月繼續漲,經濟學人總編接受訪問就說投資人太樂觀了,
: 而美股直到3月才反應而大幅向下修正,股市不都提前反應嗎?
: 為什麼1月中國都封城了,直到3月才反應呢?
: 4.現在美股小道瓊正大漲快800點,是否又是投資人太過樂觀?
: 彷彿又回到2月的時候,不理中國的新冠肺炎,而刻正大漲中?
股價跟疫情正相關沒那麼大
現在股價會漲是因為美國無限QE的緣故
你有個絕對不會倒也絕不會催款的債權人
美國人當然是直接借爆
但麥納德點出重點於“當失業率上升、經濟增長和企業盈利萎縮時”
沒有實質的經濟活動,這個泡泡遲早會破
也是為什麼各國政府都想盡快復工的原因
FED跟美國政府不是笨蛋
他們願意砸那個多錢代表相對應的風險就是這麼大
我認為假如疫情舒緩速度趕不上復工期限
美國政府勢必會有更激烈的行動(這聽起來好像廢話)
反正拜大灑幣所賜現在為何不進去賺些便當錢
台股又有感冒液護盤,真的崩潰了要跑也還來的及不是
自己現在就玩隔日沖,然後週末不留,邊看邊做
看不懂就空手不就好了
--
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