美國市政債的一個迷思 - 投資
By Todd Johnson
at 2019-09-12T12:44
at 2019-09-12T12:44
Table of Contents
市政債的一個迷思
大家好,最近在考慮投資美國市政債,主要是看上它配息穩定以及價格波動
較小。今天做了一個回測,卻意外發現一個問題。回測條件設定如圖:
https://i.imgur.com/jgAIiHn.jpg
為簡化說明,在Profile 1中我只選NEA,對照組則是Vanguard 500 index.
回測結果如圖:
https://i.imgur.com/FcDaeT1.jpg
==========
經過將近20年的時間,NEA因為價格穩定,所以初期投入的1萬元,到現在
是9366,相差並不多。考慮每個月穩定配息的話,看來還是有4~5%的收益。
問題來了,如果把通膨考慮進去,那20年前投入的1萬元,到今天只剩下6728
的價值,也就是虧損了33%。
而對照組的Vanguard 500,初期投入的1萬元到今天有26386。就算把通膨
考慮進去,到今天也還有18953的價值,也就是賺了90%。
市政債的穩定月配息4~5%雖然好,但是時間拉長來看因為價格並不會有
太大差異,使得資產總值實際上會因為通膨而萎縮。
不知道大家是如何看待這個問題的?
如果你說可以趁市政債的價格在高檔時賣出賺取價差,這樣又和買市政債
的初衷違背了。而且除非是買在極低點,不然真的沒什麼價差可賺。
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