澳幣有賺的快逃命吧~~ - 美元

http://business.theage.com.au/business/dollar-dive-40-us-cents-warning-20081031-5evh.html

Dollar dive: 40 US cents warning

The Australian dollar may fall to a record low next year, possibly dipping
below 40 US cents for the first time, as slowing growth in emerging markets
cools demand for the raw materials exported by the nation.


The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents
on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It
reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely
in 1983.

"I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a
London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The
Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that
happening in the next year or so," he added.

The forecast is based on the assumption that the current pace of dollar
repatriation will continue as investors sell emerging-market assets around
the world, causing the US currency to overshoot by as much as 30%, according
to State Street.


Australia's currency rose 5.3% to 68.43 cents at 7:03pm in Sydney, from 68.43
cents late yesterday in Asia.


The currency advanced to its July high as surging commodities prices and a
benchmark interest rate of 7.25% helped attract investment. It has been the
worst performer of the 16 most-traded currencies against the dollar and yen
over the past 3 months as a seizure in credit markets fueled concern the
global economy is headed for a recession.


Commodities account for about 60% of Australia's exports and the
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials has fallen 42% since closing
at a record high on July 2.


"Because the Aussie dollar is liquid, the punishment for emerging markets
undergoing a crisis will be paid through the Aussie dollar," said Doyle.
"It's like a contagion."

But others believe the currency is not likely to fall to that level.

"I believe that 40 US cents is a unlikely, not because I'm hugely bullish
commodity markets or think emerging markets will out perform, but because I
don't believe that US dollar can strengthen that much," HiFX Australia senior
consultant Thomas Averill said in an email.

"The structural concerns in the US economy that had weighed on the US dollar
since 2001 still remain and have no easy resolution. "

Since September the Reserve Bank of Australia has reduced borrowing costs to
6% to boost its slowing economy. Traders are betting that the central bank
will cut its benchmark rate by 136 basis points over the next 12 months,
according to a Credit Suisse index based on overnight swaps. A basis point is
0.01 percentage point.


Bloomberg with Chris Zappone, BusinessDay


有誇張~~~ 大概算了一下

按照目前澳幣對台幣匯率的話

如果澳幣真的貶到 0.4 換一美元

那對台幣大概是 13-14 左右

逃命吧~~~~

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