海運漲價 類股獲利補 - 股票
By Oliver
at 2020-12-12T22:40
at 2020-12-12T22:40
Table of Contents
※ 引述《jiouje (JioUje)》之銘言:
: 我本身有貨物走海運出口到中國,運費沒有漲價而且原本星期三、六的運班變成只有星期
: 六,我客戶收到貨物也很準時並沒有延後的問題
: 前幾天跟客戶聊天聊到股票,他是某‘’代工業‘’上市公司原始股東,他們貨物是往全
: 世界跑的,他說認為航運刻意漲價 缺櫃缺成這樣是假象
: 歐美現在經濟活動還沒完全復甦疫情變嚴重,近期瘋狂拉貨到底在拉什麼貨?缺貨缺成這
: 樣?
: 中國現在算是經濟活動稍微復甦,都認為今年我中國客戶叫貨力道明顯衰退,電子出口創
: 新高沒錯但我出口的是傳產民生用品,這10年來碰到中國節日貨物清關都慢 我都跟客戶
: 說要提早叫貨,結果今年缺櫃怎麼這麼順?
: 缺櫃缺成這樣到底在缺什麼?
: P.s今年是大驚奇年,我也不敢否定說長榮王分析的30-40元區間不會到達,只是我碰到的
: 產業現況去說明,如果留著上40恭喜你,如果提早跑而沒賠也恭喜你。
家人在三大航商上班
中國運費沒漲是因為
航商都被中國政府請喝過咖啡
不準漲!
但商人自然會找到出路
現在運費沒漲
但想搶櫃的就灌入各種附加費
所以實際上也是漲
然後真正的獲利來自歐美
高雄>紐約
年初報價一千多現在七千多
一櫃難求
現在客人打電話進去只問有沒有櫃位
已經沒有人在問報價
本來照理來說
一條健康的航線
應該要滿船去滿船回來
但現在因為歐美疫情造成失能
進出口完全失衡
拼命印鈔票從亞洲拉貨
卻沒有東西可以賣回亞洲
造成美>亞回頭船集貨找貨的時間大幅拉長
幾個月下來就變成船漸漸卡在美>亞的路徑上
因此亞>美路徑船奇缺
運費瘋狂暴漲
現在已經變成
亞>美路線跑完卸完貨之後
就直接開回來還有暴利的奇特現象
但即使如此
還是趕不上亞>美路徑的需求
而且短時間之內也無法再擴充這個路徑的產能
因為沒櫃!
貨櫃都在歐美的流通路線上收回來的速度很慢
(跟上面其實是一件事
因為歐美沒貨可賣 所以貨櫃流回來的速度太慢
大量貨櫃閒置在歐美大陸各處集貨點)
亞太區域全部備用貨櫃早就已經全部調光
甚至還派船專門去回收貨櫃
但不管你怎麼做
這個進出口的失衡情況太嚴重
調度能做的努力都是杯水車薪
短時間之內都沒有辦法解決
歐美這麼多國家進出口逆差一下多幾十%
這麼大的差距以百萬計的櫃量
怎麼可能靠調度就能夠平衡的回來?
所以在歐美疫情緩解
能恢復足夠製造能力之前
都無法解除這個畸形的現象
股票會不會漲跌不好說
但這個因為歐美失能需求暴增
再加上航線失衡雙重因素造成運費暴漲的現象
冬天結束之前一定不會緩解
--
: 我本身有貨物走海運出口到中國,運費沒有漲價而且原本星期三、六的運班變成只有星期
: 六,我客戶收到貨物也很準時並沒有延後的問題
: 前幾天跟客戶聊天聊到股票,他是某‘’代工業‘’上市公司原始股東,他們貨物是往全
: 世界跑的,他說認為航運刻意漲價 缺櫃缺成這樣是假象
: 歐美現在經濟活動還沒完全復甦疫情變嚴重,近期瘋狂拉貨到底在拉什麼貨?缺貨缺成這
: 樣?
: 中國現在算是經濟活動稍微復甦,都認為今年我中國客戶叫貨力道明顯衰退,電子出口創
: 新高沒錯但我出口的是傳產民生用品,這10年來碰到中國節日貨物清關都慢 我都跟客戶
: 說要提早叫貨,結果今年缺櫃怎麼這麼順?
: 缺櫃缺成這樣到底在缺什麼?
: P.s今年是大驚奇年,我也不敢否定說長榮王分析的30-40元區間不會到達,只是我碰到的
: 產業現況去說明,如果留著上40恭喜你,如果提早跑而沒賠也恭喜你。
家人在三大航商上班
中國運費沒漲是因為
航商都被中國政府請喝過咖啡
不準漲!
但商人自然會找到出路
現在運費沒漲
但想搶櫃的就灌入各種附加費
所以實際上也是漲
然後真正的獲利來自歐美
高雄>紐約
年初報價一千多現在七千多
一櫃難求
現在客人打電話進去只問有沒有櫃位
已經沒有人在問報價
本來照理來說
一條健康的航線
應該要滿船去滿船回來
但現在因為歐美疫情造成失能
進出口完全失衡
拼命印鈔票從亞洲拉貨
卻沒有東西可以賣回亞洲
造成美>亞回頭船集貨找貨的時間大幅拉長
幾個月下來就變成船漸漸卡在美>亞的路徑上
因此亞>美路徑船奇缺
運費瘋狂暴漲
現在已經變成
亞>美路線跑完卸完貨之後
就直接開回來還有暴利的奇特現象
但即使如此
還是趕不上亞>美路徑的需求
而且短時間之內也無法再擴充這個路徑的產能
因為沒櫃!
貨櫃都在歐美的流通路線上收回來的速度很慢
(跟上面其實是一件事
因為歐美沒貨可賣 所以貨櫃流回來的速度太慢
大量貨櫃閒置在歐美大陸各處集貨點)
亞太區域全部備用貨櫃早就已經全部調光
甚至還派船專門去回收貨櫃
但不管你怎麼做
這個進出口的失衡情況太嚴重
調度能做的努力都是杯水車薪
短時間之內都沒有辦法解決
歐美這麼多國家進出口逆差一下多幾十%
這麼大的差距以百萬計的櫃量
怎麼可能靠調度就能夠平衡的回來?
所以在歐美疫情緩解
能恢復足夠製造能力之前
都無法解除這個畸形的現象
股票會不會漲跌不好說
但這個因為歐美失能需求暴增
再加上航線失衡雙重因素造成運費暴漲的現象
冬天結束之前一定不會緩解
--
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