景氣對策信號VS.台股走勢 7月若亮藍燈 6400點不保 - 股票

By Callum
at 2008-07-31T03:04
at 2008-07-31T03:04
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2008/new/jul/31/today-e12.htm
2.內容:
〔記者陳永吉/台北報導〕最近在法人圈流傳一篇文章,是由一位網友針對「景氣對策信
號VS.台股走勢」做深入分析,判斷台股未來走勢,結果獲得相當多法人好評,根據文章
內容指出,如果7月的景氣不小心亮出藍燈,則台股6,400點將岌岌可危。
過去景氣對策信號,常常被法人視為落後指標,因為當月的景氣對策信號,總要到隔月底
才會公布,對股市而言根本緩不濟急,不過法人也認同網友所說的,如果是一個中長期趨
勢形成,投資人應該要提高警覺。
網友指出,根據過去歷史經驗顯示,由高到低跑完四個燈號,台股跌幅至少要滿足35%以
上,也就是說,如果從去年9月、10月亮出的黃紅燈,後來再經過六個月的綠燈,現在又
出現兩個月黃藍燈,如果7月亮出藍燈,就滿足四個燈號循環,因此從去年高點9,859點來
算,跌幅35%約在6,408點,可能會是台股下個防守的底線。
不過究竟7月會不會亮出藍燈,到實際公布時間,還有將近一個月,不過網友將每個細項
數據進行分析,認為7月景氣對策信號分數,最高只會在19分,應該會落在12至17分之間
,這樣亮出藍燈的機會就非常高了。
若以衰退的時間來看,如果真的歷經四次燈號的景氣循環,到景氣落底至少要14個月,目
前台股到7月底也才11個月,而脫離谷底的時間至少要15個月以上,因此這波景氣要復甦
的時間可能得等到明年底。
法人指出,如果7月真的點亮藍燈,過去僅有2000年時景氣才衰退如此快速,如果根據網
友統計,過去30年來,從來沒有在景氣對策信號反轉後,股市還能逆勢展開多頭行情的,
這種機率根本是零,也就是說,未來三至六個月之間,台股要攻上萬點幾乎是不可能的事
,當初信誓旦旦說台股今年要挑戰萬點的官員及名嘴,恐怕是讓投資人慘賠最大的禍源!
3.心得/評論:
這篇說的不就是i大的文章嗎?
--
2.內容:
〔記者陳永吉/台北報導〕最近在法人圈流傳一篇文章,是由一位網友針對「景氣對策信
號VS.台股走勢」做深入分析,判斷台股未來走勢,結果獲得相當多法人好評,根據文章
內容指出,如果7月的景氣不小心亮出藍燈,則台股6,400點將岌岌可危。
過去景氣對策信號,常常被法人視為落後指標,因為當月的景氣對策信號,總要到隔月底
才會公布,對股市而言根本緩不濟急,不過法人也認同網友所說的,如果是一個中長期趨
勢形成,投資人應該要提高警覺。
網友指出,根據過去歷史經驗顯示,由高到低跑完四個燈號,台股跌幅至少要滿足35%以
上,也就是說,如果從去年9月、10月亮出的黃紅燈,後來再經過六個月的綠燈,現在又
出現兩個月黃藍燈,如果7月亮出藍燈,就滿足四個燈號循環,因此從去年高點9,859點來
算,跌幅35%約在6,408點,可能會是台股下個防守的底線。
不過究竟7月會不會亮出藍燈,到實際公布時間,還有將近一個月,不過網友將每個細項
數據進行分析,認為7月景氣對策信號分數,最高只會在19分,應該會落在12至17分之間
,這樣亮出藍燈的機會就非常高了。
若以衰退的時間來看,如果真的歷經四次燈號的景氣循環,到景氣落底至少要14個月,目
前台股到7月底也才11個月,而脫離谷底的時間至少要15個月以上,因此這波景氣要復甦
的時間可能得等到明年底。
法人指出,如果7月真的點亮藍燈,過去僅有2000年時景氣才衰退如此快速,如果根據網
友統計,過去30年來,從來沒有在景氣對策信號反轉後,股市還能逆勢展開多頭行情的,
這種機率根本是零,也就是說,未來三至六個月之間,台股要攻上萬點幾乎是不可能的事
,當初信誓旦旦說台股今年要挑戰萬點的官員及名嘴,恐怕是讓投資人慘賠最大的禍源!
3.心得/評論:
這篇說的不就是i大的文章嗎?
--
Tags:
股票
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