希臘危機的背後事實 - 經濟

同樣是這個網站, 寫的很好玩.
因為,大家都中了,希臘也因此不能倒.不然這風暴不止是希臘自己而已.
德法美三國的保險公司和銀行業也一起爆炸了.
它的圖表影音都弄的很好,參觀一下不錯.

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/greek-saga-sails

The never ending Greek tragedy goes on and on, with bail outs, austerity
demands (codespeak to screw the poor and middle class), and votes of no
confidence in government officials. All of this raucous is interspersed with
violent protests. Now Europe is in talks for a second bail out, about the
same as the first one, or $157 billion.

The EU and ECB refuse to let Greece default and insist the new bailout should
guarantee no adverse credit event. Greece's debt is now about 150% of annual
GDP, heading to 160%, or $485 billion, with some estimates of Greek debt
being $532 billion. Add to this, Greece's economy is shrinking, which will
never enable them to pay off this debt. This is what austerity brings, social
unrest and a non-productive economy, as the Prime Minister tries to blame
inept workers.

Below is a graph of countries' exposure to Greek debt from BBC news.

Yet, Economist Kash Mansori did a little more digging and found the United
States exposure to Greece debt much higher, $41.4 billion and that's just
Greece.

Mansori has done more work in trying to ascertain U.S. bank exposure to the
European debt crisis and received quite a bit of denial blow back as
financial stocks declined in response. Bottom line, he stands behind the
$41.4 billion of Greek crisis U.S. exposure.

In other words, the BIS data does indeed represent true net exposure, and
in the case of US banks that exposure is about $40 billion to Greece, on par
with the exposure faced by banks in France and Germany. No, we don't know
exactly how much of that takes the form of CDS contracts, but we do know that
the exposure is there.

Buried in a never ending series of Greek bail out stories, we have plans for
a non-default default of Greek debt. Why? So, credit default swaps are not
triggered, in part. The official party line is credit default swaps are
currently valued a €5 billion. Yet here is the pressure to avoid default.

Citigroup highlighted in a research note that such a move could undermine
the use of CDS as a tool to hedge against sovereign risk more generally.

While Citigroup and other U.S. banks are pressuring for Greece to avoid
default, for then they would have to pay out on CDSes, €5 billion, in the
big scheme of things, is not that much. Considering the games being played,
most of it on the backs of working people in the forms of austerity, the odds
are Mansori's estimate is correct.

Remember that shtick how the taxpayers had to bail out the banks in order to
save the economy for working people? Remember how banks would lend to small
business and individuals? Right o, we know that banks did not do that
Instead, they appear to have re-entered the great derivatives gambling hall
by placing bets that Greece would be bailed out.

So, what exactly is keeping Greece from being able to default on some of it's
debt? The banks. Even the interest on the debt, now currently 6.6% of GDP,
projected to be 8.8% of GDP by 2014, isn't being forgiven.

We have a never ending spiral of bail outs, social unrest and a never ending
shrinking Greece economy, double whammied due to austerity demands and
interest on the debt. This never ending saga is now to be stretched out, like
picking at a scab underneath a band-aid, instead of getting the pain done and
over with in order to help Greece actually economically recover.

What was that phrase half measures availed us nothing? Maybe the phrase
should be modified to say half measures availed us more time to make flash
trades and pull in premiums before impeding doom hits.

--
Our Father who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.
Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done on earth as it is in heaven.
Give us this day our daily bread, and forgive us our trespasses,
as we forgive those who trespass against us,
and lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil

--