美國第一季GDP growth rate第三次預測 - 經濟

剛好在看自己的股票時, google給了這個分析.

清楚簡單.圖表很正點.也清楚地了解了美國經濟走緩的趨勢.但是它暗藏玄機.
需要看商業部經濟局的note才能進一步了解.可惜,記者功力畢竟太弱,
不會解釋的出來.2010年的經濟刺激措施,影響不少.

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/q1-2011-gdp-3rd-estimate-19

以下是官方的原文, 6/24/2011公布

我沒排版,建議直接上美國商業部的經濟局網站,也就是以下的連結去看.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2011 (Third Estimate); Corporate
Profits: First Quarter 2011 (Revised Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by
labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in
the first quarter of 2011, (that
is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "third"
estimate released by the Bureau
of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data
than were available for
the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the
increase in real GDP was 1.8
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected
positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment,
exports, and nonresidential
fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from
federal government spending and
state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP,
increased.

__________________
BOX. --
Annual Revision of the National Income and Product
Accounts

The annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs)
will be released along
with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2011 on July 29.
In addition to the regular
revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the first quarter of
2011, GDP and some
components will be revised back to the first quarter of 2003 (see "Preview of
the Upcoming Annual
NIPA Revision" in the May Survey of Current Business). The August Survey
will contain an article that
describes the annual revision in detail.
__________________
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual
rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these
published estimates.
Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real
” estimates are in
chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the
Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
__________________

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected
a sharp upturn in imports, a
deceleration in PCE, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and a
deceleration in
nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a sharp upturn in
private inventory investment.

Motor vehicle output added 1.18 percentage points to the first-quarter
change in real GDP after
subtracting 0.27 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change. Final
sales of computers added 0.10
percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.35
percentage point to the fourth-
quarter change.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices
paid by U.S. residents,
increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter, 0.1 percentage point more than in
the second estimate; this
index increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy
prices, the price index for
gross domestic purchases increased 2.3 percent in the first quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.1
percent in the fourth.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2 percent in the
first quarter, compared with
an increase of 4.0 percent in the fourth. Real nonresidential fixed
investment increased 2.0 percent,
compared with an increase of 7.7 percent. Nonresidential structures
decreased 14.8 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 7.6 percent. Equipment and software increased 8.8 percent,
compared with an increase
of 7.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 2.0 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 3.3
percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 7.6 percent in the first
quarter, compared with an
increase of 8.6 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services
increased 5.1 percent, in
contrast to a decrease of 12.6 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment
decreased 8.1 percent
in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the fourth.
National defense decreased
11.8 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percent. Nondefense was
unchanged, after an increase of
3.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and
gross investment decreased
4.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.6 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 1.31 percentage points to
the first-quarter change in
real GDP, after subtracting 3.42 percentage points from the fourth-quarter
change. Private businesses
increased inventories $55.7 billion in the first quarter, following increases
of $16.2 billion in the fourth
quarter and $121.4 billion in the third.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private
inventories -- increased 0.6
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 6.7 percent in the
fourth.


Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods
and services wherever
produced -- increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.2 percent in the
fourth.


Gross national product

Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the
labor and property
supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter,
compared with an increase of 2.8
percent in the fourth. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of
income from the rest of the
world, which increased $51.1 billion in the first quarter after decreasing
$10.5 billion in the fourth; in
the first quarter, receipts increased $14.2 billion, and payments decreased
$36.8 billion.


Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods
and services -- increased
4.0 percent, or $146.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $15,018.1
billion. In the fourth quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 3.5 percent, or $126.3 billion.


Revisions

The "third" estimate of the first-quarter change in real GDP is 0.1
percentage point more than the
"second" estimate. A downward revision to imports and an upward revision to
inventory investment
were largely offset by downward revisions to exports, to nonresidential fixed
investment, and to state
and local government spending.


Advance Estimate Second Estimate
Third Estimate
(Percent change from
preceding quarter)

Real GDP................................... 1.8 1.8
1.9
Current-dollar GDP......................... 3.7 3.8
4.0
Gross domestic purchases price index....... 3.8 3.8
3.9



Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation
and capital
consumption adjustments) increased $48.7 billion in the first quarter,
compared with an increase of
$38.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash
flow with inventory valuation
adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment --
increased $16.7 billion in the
first quarter, compared with an increase of $36.9 billion in the fourth.

Taxes on corporate income increased $33.2 billion in the first quarter,
in contrast to a decrease of
$1.3 billion in the fourth. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
increased $15.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of
$39.5 billion in the fourth.
Dividends increased $14.8 billion, compared with an increase of $8.9 billion;
current-production
undistributed profits increased $0.7 billion, compared with an increase of
$30.6 billion.

Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $66.3 billion in
the first quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $57.7 billion in the fourth. Domestic profits of
nonfinancial corporations increased
$60.7 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $10.1
billion in the fourth. In the first
quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and
profits per unit of real value
added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected an increase in unit
prices and a decrease in the
unit labor costs; unit nonlabor costs were unchanged.

The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $54.4 billion in
the first quarter, in contrast
to a decrease of $9.4 billion in the fourth. This measure is calculated as
(1) receipts by U.S. residents of
earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S.
residents from unaffiliated foreign
corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their
foreign parents plus dividends
paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The
first-quarter increase was accounted for
by an increase in receipts and a decrease in payments.

Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best
available measure of industry
profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry
do not exist. This measure
reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax
returns. According to this
measure, domestic profits of financial corporations decreased while domestic
profits of nonfinancial
corporations increased. The increase in nonfinancial corporations reflected
increases in all the major
subaggregates shown except for a small decrease in transportation and
warehousing. Within
manufacturing, the increase reflected increases in all the industries shown
except computer and
electronic products.

Profits before tax increased $140.3 billion in the first quarter, in
contrast to a decrease of $48.3
billion in the fourth. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect,
as does profits from current
production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments.
These adjustments convert
depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a
tax-return, historical-cost basis to
the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts.
The capital consumption
adjustment decreased $90.5 billion in the first quarter (from -$15.8 billion
to -$106.3 billion), in contrast
to an increase of $153.5 billion in the fourth. The inventory valuation
adjustment decreased $1.2 billion
(from -$103.2 billion to -$104.4 billion), compared with a decrease of $66.8
billion.

The large decrease in the first-quarter capital consumption adjustment
reflects the expiration of
"bonus depreciation" claimed under the Small Business Jobs and Credit Act of
2010. (For detailed data,
see the table at www.bea.gov/national/xls/technote_tax_acts.xls.) Profits
from current production are
not affected because they do not depend on the depreciation-accounting
practices used for federal
income tax returns; rather they are based on depreciation of fixed assets
valued at current cost and using
consistent depreciation profiles based on used-asset prices.

--
Our Father who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.
Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done on earth as it is in heaven.
Give us this day our daily bread, and forgive us our trespasses,
as we forgive those who trespass against us,
and lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil

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