小摩喊進台積:絕不會太貴 - 股票
By Iris
at 2019-10-03T02:17
at 2019-10-03T02:17
Table of Contents
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/4082441
美股轉跌,台積電昨(2)收跌0.5元、以279.5元收市,但在外資連五買共達6萬張的推升下,盤中一度站上281元新天價、市值增至7.2兆元,累計9月來漲幅7.9%。
摩根大通昨天針對台積電近日飆漲,彙整出國際投資人的六大問題並一一釋疑,重申現在依舊是買進台積電的絕佳時機,絕對不會太貴。
摩根大通科技產業研究部主管哈戈谷在報告中提到,因為最近台積電漲太兇,國際投資人提問踴躍度大增,他整理出六個問題,幫助投資人決策該如何布局。
第一是台積電明年的毛利率會不會重返50%?哈戈谷表示,2020年台積電12吋產能製程會臻於成熟,有助稀釋28奈米,另外是台積電也有意削減28奈米產能;他看好高毛利的7奈米,會產生比目前更大的毛利率。
第二是台積電2020年主要的上漲或下跌因素為何?哈戈谷認為,首先是全球半導體庫存去化速度,目前他預估,明年台積電扣除5奈米和7奈米的營收將下滑,但若有更廣泛的復甦將好轉;其次,5G iPhone買氣會不會比預期好,三是超微在伺服器和PC市場市占成績,有沒有機會做更大發揮。
第三,台積電拉高資本支出對獲利好嗎?哈戈谷說,經驗顯示,台積電擴大資本支出往往有好的效果,如2009-2012年間,台積電近三年滾動平均資本密集度逐年拉升,同期近三年的滾動平均營收年增率也穩定增加。
第四,台積電拉高資本支出,還能維持股息成長政策嗎?哈戈谷說,接下來兩年,台積電資本支出可能拉高到120-130億美元,換算EPS將從13元提升到16元至18元,每股股利也將增加,2021年預估達11.5元。
第五,現在買台積電會不會太貴?哈戈谷認為一點也不,因為這波由基本面帶動的評價上修循環,至少可延續三、四年之久。第六,台積5奈米會不會貴到沒客戶採用?哈戈谷說,系統廠不像晶片開發商,如蘋果、華為、字母、阿里有自建的生態系要維護,其中世代交替愈早採用高階製程愈好,不用擔心。
心得:
買台積的五大理由小摩都列給你了
絕對不會太貴,見綠買逢低買攤平買
直奔財富自由
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