貿易戰惡果?美國8月對中國貿易逆差創紀 - 股票
By Margaret
at 2019-10-02T22:57
at 2019-10-02T22:57
Table of Contents
※ 引述《wen9008 (股神)》之銘言:
: 跟我目前在業界看到的狀況方向一致,這狀況會在9月開始出現一些變化
: 中國對美出口8月份已經大降16%,後面的衰退幅度會~非~常~大~(9月、10月見真章)
: 而且會連帶影響各行各業,在各國的供應鏈出貨(因為9月份新加的稅率已經生效)
: 目前不確定這到底是全球需求下降,還是美企仍然在觀望所以減少下單
: 不管是哪一個,可以確定的是,美國進出口貿易額會開始下降
: (不確定蘋果新機會引響多少,但扣除蘋果新機一定下降)
: 這代表一件事,全球不景氣(應該沒人反駁這句吧!?)將蔓延到美國國內
: 原本強盛的美國經濟將受到全球需求衰弱而拖累
: 最後產生惡性循環,既然大家普遍的認知是中美貿易戰短期內不會結束
: 那就代表這種狀況短期內不會改驗,隨著時間的增長狀況會越來越差
: 目前看來要支撐起美國經濟的前提,只有全球景氣改善
: 但我看不到全球景氣短中期內會有什麼轉機,所以我個人認為
: 接下來的一、兩年全球股市存在較大幅度修正的風險越來越高
: 期待川普貿易戰會有正面進展的,我勸你還是早點清醒的好.....
快一個月過去了,現在來看一下我當時有沒有唬爛
美國製造業活動連兩個月萎縮 10年來新低
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2933345
國發會公布「連續第8顆」黃藍燈 景氣疲弱
https://reurl.cc/K6p65R
貿易戰衝擊!WTO 將今年貿易成長預估值狠砍一半以上
http://0rz.tw/TUPSR
其他就不貼了,看看當時底下推文,只能說是可笑至極
整個PTT被政治勢力:綠營廠公和1450入侵
不論是非黑白,邏輯只有:說資進黨、日本和美國壞話的就是挺中國、9.25毛
當時噓的人要不要出來道歉阿?
自補一句,省得版主說跟股票無關
"到年底前還不見起色",就這樣~
--
: 跟我目前在業界看到的狀況方向一致,這狀況會在9月開始出現一些變化
: 中國對美出口8月份已經大降16%,後面的衰退幅度會~非~常~大~(9月、10月見真章)
: 而且會連帶影響各行各業,在各國的供應鏈出貨(因為9月份新加的稅率已經生效)
: 目前不確定這到底是全球需求下降,還是美企仍然在觀望所以減少下單
: 不管是哪一個,可以確定的是,美國進出口貿易額會開始下降
: (不確定蘋果新機會引響多少,但扣除蘋果新機一定下降)
: 這代表一件事,全球不景氣(應該沒人反駁這句吧!?)將蔓延到美國國內
: 原本強盛的美國經濟將受到全球需求衰弱而拖累
: 最後產生惡性循環,既然大家普遍的認知是中美貿易戰短期內不會結束
: 那就代表這種狀況短期內不會改驗,隨著時間的增長狀況會越來越差
: 目前看來要支撐起美國經濟的前提,只有全球景氣改善
: 但我看不到全球景氣短中期內會有什麼轉機,所以我個人認為
: 接下來的一、兩年全球股市存在較大幅度修正的風險越來越高
: 期待川普貿易戰會有正面進展的,我勸你還是早點清醒的好.....
快一個月過去了,現在來看一下我當時有沒有唬爛
美國製造業活動連兩個月萎縮 10年來新低
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2933345
國發會公布「連續第8顆」黃藍燈 景氣疲弱
https://reurl.cc/K6p65R
貿易戰衝擊!WTO 將今年貿易成長預估值狠砍一半以上
http://0rz.tw/TUPSR
其他就不貼了,看看當時底下推文,只能說是可笑至極
整個PTT被政治勢力:綠營廠公和1450入侵
不論是非黑白,邏輯只有:說資進黨、日本和美國壞話的就是挺中國、9.25毛
當時噓的人要不要出來道歉阿?
自補一句,省得版主說跟股票無關
"到年底前還不見起色",就這樣~
--
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