一題貝氏機率 - 經濟

By Yedda
at 2011-06-09T04:54
at 2011-06-09T04:54
Table of Contents
Give
Pr(Mp=0|W=0)=Pr(Mp=1|W=1)=Bp
Pr(Mi=0|W=0)=Pr(Mi=1|W=1)=Bi
Pr(W=0)=Pr(W=1)=0.5
So
0.5Bp
Up=Pr(W=0|Mp=0)=------------------ = Bp ------(1)
0.5Bp+0.5(1-Bp)
Pr(Mi=0|Mp=0)=UpBi+(1-Up)(1-Bi) --------(2)
想請問的是關於式子 2的概念是否是來自於
Pr(Mi=0|Mp=0)=Pr(Mi=0|W=0)*Pr(W=0|Mp=0)+Pr(Mi=0|W=1)*Pr(W=1|Mp=0) ??
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