OSJ：費率設定應務實，但不要耽誤了目標 - 股票

這篇文出自「離岸風電雜誌」（Offshore Support Journal ，OSJ），是歐洲最好的海洋
議題媒體「Riviera Maritime Media」旗下的出版品。

1.原文連結：https://reurl.cc/O4WZX

2.原文內容：

標題：費率設定應該務實，但不要耽誤了目標。
　
David Foxwell 從台灣離岸風電行業的問題中學到教訓，並思考如何把這些教訓應用於亞
洲其他地區。
　
就像之前強調的，整個亞太地區正在接近離岸風電起飛的引爆點，與美國過去12-18 個月
的狀況是一樣的。
　
在這些亞太地區的領先者中，最重要的就是中國和台灣，後者最近基於各種錯誤的原因受
到了很多關注。
　
台灣已被視為短期內離岸風電最重要的潛在出口市場，然而在 2018 年末／2019 年初，我
們對於這個國家的計畫實施情形感到擔憂
　
對開發商來說，2019 年 1 月 2 日取得購售電合約（Power Purchase Agreement，PPA）
的死線已經逼近，然而在過程中並沒有得到任何保障。 台灣的中央政府僅指責地方政府不
核發開發商所需的許可證。 無論是哪一方的問題，這個延遲將導致開發商無法使用台灣當
局於 2018 年簽署合約時所提出的躉購費率。規劃中的 2019 年躉購費率明顯降低，更不
用說在沒有完整供應鏈的情況下，執行建設計畫需要耗費多少成本。
　
全球離岸風力發電產業的領導者「沃旭能源」，面對這些發展，開始重新審視其在台灣建
造離岸風場的承諾。 雖然 2019 年的躉購費率尚未確定，但該公司表示，將停頓並重新審
視台灣的所有計畫活動、計畫時間表、供應鏈承諾及合約等，所有於 2018 年試算而簽訂
的購電協議項目。
　
該公司表示，它「非常關注」2019 年的建議躉購費率以及新提出的年滿載時間上限，並指
出躉購費率需要反映出其在台灣的建設（大彰化 1 與 2a 計畫）所面臨的極高成本。沃旭
能源表示，這些主要與建立當地供應鏈，加強電網基礎設施，以及在具有挑戰性的水域建
設、運營和維護離岸風場有關。
　
沃旭能源表示，這些變化「危及了當地離岸風電供應鏈的創建，損害朝可再生能源轉型的
計畫，並對觀望台灣市場的國際投資者帶來重大不確定性。」
　
誠如我所提出的，歐洲低補貼和零補貼市場增長所潛在的危險是，離岸風電的新開發國家
，往往會被視為能達成同等優勢的交易，即使是在沒有一個完整供應鏈的情況下也是如此
。
　
當然，這是不可能的。歐洲花了十年，才將成本下降到足以實現零補貼和低補貼競標的狀
態。成熟市場的成本將進一步下降，但新市場的成本仍需考量實際面。
　
除台灣外，一些國家正接近或已達到離岸風電的轉捩點。如 Linklaters（一家以英國為總
部的國際律師事務所）在最近對潛在市場的評論中所述，日本似乎是其中之一，另一個是
韓國。
　
Linklaters 指出，韓國政府將致力於綠色能源轉型，並在 2030 年前實現海上風機裝置容
量 12 GW 的宏偉目標。與亞太地區的其他政府一樣，韓國開發離岸風電項目面臨的主要挑
戰，是缺乏大型商業化的離岸風電項目發展紀錄，特別是那些有國際參與的項目。 迄今開
發的大多數離岸風電風電項目都是由韓國政府以「自上而下」的方式所領導發展的。
　
儘管仍存在著這些挑戰，由於韓國擁有有利的地形，完善的基礎設施和韓國政府的大力支
持，其離岸風電市場依然具有吸引力。
　
希望韓國政府已看到台灣在發展離岸風電的過程中所遇到的主要問題，設計並實施一個既
強大又可達成發展程序，以避免陷入與沃旭能源和台灣其他開發商陷入相同困境——需要
深呼吸並重新考慮他們是否該繼續投資該市場。
--
Be realistic about tariffs, and don’t move the goal posts

David Foxwell considers lessons learned from problems in Taiwan’s offshore
wind industry and how they might be applied elsewhere in Asia

As previously highlighted, the Asia Pacific region as a whole is approaching a
tipping point when offshore wind will take off, as it has in the last 12-18
months in the US.

Foremost among the front-runners in the region are China and Taiwan, the latter
having received a lot of attention recently for all the wrong reasons.

In the near-term, Taiwan has come to be seen as the most important potential
export market for offshore wind, but late 2018/early 2019 saw concerns raised
about implementing projects in the country.

Deadlines for developers to secure PPAs by 2 January 2019 came and went without
them being secured. The government in the country blamed local governments for
sitting on their hands and not granting the licences that were needed. Whoever
is at fault, the delay is compounded by the fact that developers will no longer
be able to take advantage of the feed-in tariff the Taiwanese authorities
proposed for deals signed in 2018. A proposed feed-in tariff for 2019 is
significantly lower, despite the high cost of building projects in a country
without an established supply chain.

These developments led Ørsted, the world’s leading developer of offshore
wind projects, to revisit commitments it made to build offshore windfarms in
Taiwan. Although the 2019 feed-in-tariff has not been confirmed yet, the
offshore wind company said it would pause and revisit all project activity in
Taiwan, the timeline of projects and supply chain commitments and contracts,
all of which assumed signing of PPAs in 2018.

The company said it was “very concerned” about the suggested feed-in tariff
level for 2019 as well as a newly proposed cap on annual full-load hours, and
noted that the feed-in tariff needs to reflect the extraordinarily high costs
faced by its projects in Taiwan, Greater Changhua 1 and 2a. These, it said,
were mainly related to creating a local supply chain, reinforcing the grid
infrastructure and building, operating and maintaining offshore windfarms in
challenging waters.

Ørsted said the retrospective changes “jeopardise the creation of a local
offshore wind supply chain, harm the planned transition to renewable energy and
cause significant uncertainty among international investors looking to Taiwan.
”

As I noted here, one danger inherent in the growth of the low and zero-subsidy
market in Europe is that countries that are new to offshore wind will be lulled
into thinking they can strike equally advantageous deals, even where there isn
’t an established supply chain. They can’t, of course: it has taken Europe a
decade to get to the point where costs have fallen sufficiently for zero-
subsidy and low-subsidy bids to materialise. Costs will fall even further in
established markets, but new ones need to be realistic.

Apart from Taiwan, a number of countries are approaching or have reached a
tipping point for offshore wind. Japan is seemingly one of them, and South
Korea is another, as Linklaters noted in a recent review of the potential
market there.

Linklaters noted the South Korean Government’s commitment to the green energy
transition and ambitious target of 12 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.
Like other governments in the region, it said, a key challenge for developing
offshore wind projects in South Korea is the lack of track record of large-
scale commercial offshore wind projects, in particular, those with
international participation. Most of the offshore wind projects developed to
date have been led by the South Korean Government in a ‘top-down’ format.

Despite these challenges, the country’s offshore wind market remains
attractive given the favourable topography, well-developed infrastructure and
strong support by the South Korean Government.

Hopefully, the South Korean Government has taken note of the major hiccups in
the Taiwanese process, and will design and implement a robust, realistic and
achievable process for offshore wind that avoids the pitfalls that have made &#
216;rsted and the other developers in Taiwan take a deep breath and reconsider
their involvement in that market.

3.心得/評論：

美國這兩年離岸風電產業大爆發，不只供電瓦數提升成本降低，而且風場租借的權利金也
很可觀。投資台灣的風電業者也有提供租金，價格並不比美國風場低，而且簽約階段就已
經在彰化繳了快三千萬的印花稅。
　
台灣的能源討論應該要有更多進展，這無關擁核反核，因為綠能應該是無論哪方都想要的
。前面還只是談錢的好處而已，新世代能源產業如果順利在台灣扎根，這背後有太多錢買
不到的價值，台灣真的不要錯過這個機會。
　
離岸風電潛力無限，可望成為未來美國綠能發展主力
https://reurl.cc/O4WZr
　
美國 2018 年首季共 30GW 風場發展中，比去年同期成長 40%
https://reurl.cc/xQq54
　
麻州離岸風場招租，海削 4.05 億美元權利金
https://reurl.cc/9p8ex

--
「我們都生活在陰溝裡，但仍有人仰望星空。」

"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars."

-- 王爾德 Oscar Wilde --

--