Fed這次會升2或3碼?鴿或鷹調?美股走勢 - 經濟

By Delia
at 2022-11-02T06:26
at 2022-11-02T06:26
Table of Contents
※ [本文轉錄自 Stock 看板 #1ZOBQmR3 ]
作者: oibmk (Jay) 看板: Stock
標題: [新聞] Fed這次會升2或3碼?鴿或鷹調?美股走勢
時間: Tue Nov 1 14:03:26 2022
原文標題:
Fed這次會升2或3碼?鴿或鷹調?美股走勢六套劇本推演
原文連結:
https://reurl.cc/28gD56
發布時間:
2022-11-01 09:25
記者署名:
編譯葉亭均/綜合外電
原文內容:
美國聯準會(Fed)即將在台灣時間3日凌晨2時公布利率決策,雖然市場認為升息3碼幾乎
成定局,但摩根大通的交易部門認為,如果Fed本周在宣布決策時轉向鴿派,可能引發股
市大漲。
摩根大通銷售團隊泰勒(Andrew Tyler)等人表示,如果Fed只升息2碼,主席鮑爾在會後
記者會上暗示願意容忍高通膨與緊俏的勞動力市場,那麼美股標普500指數可能一天飆漲
至少10%。小摩團隊指出,這種情節是「最不可能實現的」,但對股市投資人來說卻是「
最看漲」的結果。
摩根大通團隊列舉Fed決策日最有可能的六種情節,並基於今年對股市利多的一類事件預
測美股的反應。根據彭博資訊彙編的數據,在Fed今年來的六個決策日中,標普500指數有
四次上漲、兩次下跌。
摩根大通的分析師預期Fed本周升息3碼,與彭博訪調分析師的預測中值一致,泰勒的團隊
也認為出現其他情況的可能性很低。
以下是摩根大通團隊對Fed決策日的六套劇本推演:
1. 升息2碼+鴿調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數上漲10%至12%
小摩團隊說,考量到通膨水準和緊俏的勞動力市場,很難想像會出現這種結果。但如果這
種結果發生,市場立即的反應可能會產生二位數的股市單日漲幅。
2.升息2碼+鷹調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數上漲4%至5%
小摩團隊說,這一結果可能源於Fed愈來愈擔心金融穩定,試圖平衡經濟成長和通膨。
3. 升息3碼+鴿調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數上漲2.5%至3%。
小摩團隊說,這是發生可能性第二高的情況,「如果你看到Fed為12月會議提供明確的指
引,那麼這可能被視為鴿派結果。」
4. 升息3碼+鷹調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數下跌1%至上漲0.5%
小摩團隊表示: 「這是最可能的結果,鮑爾保留12月和2023年會議上的選擇權,同時強
調當前的通膨上行風險。」該團隊還認為這是債券市場最預料的結果,因此表示,殖利率
可能不會出現重大波動,不會導致股市崩盤。
5. 升息4碼+鴿調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數下跌4%至5%
摩根大通分析師團隊說,雖然升息4碼的可能性不大,但可能意味著Fed既想要更高的終端
利率,也希望今年底前完成緊縮周期,「另外,市場可能據此認為Fed事先知道下周的消
費者物價指數(CPI)數字。」
6. 升息4碼+鷹調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數下跌6%至8%,可能下探年內低點
小摩團隊指出,這種結果對於等待最近漲勢消失的股市空頭人士而言是最佳結果,「這顯
然代表Fed重新評估自己的通膨預測,一些投資者原本就認為Fed的預測太樂觀」。
心得/評論:
3和4目前猜測機會最高,從fedwatch看目前比率11月應該無懸念3碼,但12月看起來425-450
和450-475各46~47%幾乎接近,這應該才是之後更重要的指標
--
作者: oibmk (Jay) 看板: Stock
標題: [新聞] Fed這次會升2或3碼?鴿或鷹調?美股走勢
時間: Tue Nov 1 14:03:26 2022
原文標題:
Fed這次會升2或3碼?鴿或鷹調?美股走勢六套劇本推演
原文連結:
https://reurl.cc/28gD56
發布時間:
2022-11-01 09:25
記者署名:
編譯葉亭均/綜合外電
原文內容:
美國聯準會(Fed)即將在台灣時間3日凌晨2時公布利率決策,雖然市場認為升息3碼幾乎
成定局,但摩根大通的交易部門認為,如果Fed本周在宣布決策時轉向鴿派,可能引發股
市大漲。
摩根大通銷售團隊泰勒(Andrew Tyler)等人表示,如果Fed只升息2碼,主席鮑爾在會後
記者會上暗示願意容忍高通膨與緊俏的勞動力市場,那麼美股標普500指數可能一天飆漲
至少10%。小摩團隊指出,這種情節是「最不可能實現的」,但對股市投資人來說卻是「
最看漲」的結果。
摩根大通團隊列舉Fed決策日最有可能的六種情節,並基於今年對股市利多的一類事件預
測美股的反應。根據彭博資訊彙編的數據,在Fed今年來的六個決策日中,標普500指數有
四次上漲、兩次下跌。
摩根大通的分析師預期Fed本周升息3碼,與彭博訪調分析師的預測中值一致,泰勒的團隊
也認為出現其他情況的可能性很低。
以下是摩根大通團隊對Fed決策日的六套劇本推演:
1. 升息2碼+鴿調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數上漲10%至12%
小摩團隊說,考量到通膨水準和緊俏的勞動力市場,很難想像會出現這種結果。但如果這
種結果發生,市場立即的反應可能會產生二位數的股市單日漲幅。
2.升息2碼+鷹調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數上漲4%至5%
小摩團隊說,這一結果可能源於Fed愈來愈擔心金融穩定,試圖平衡經濟成長和通膨。
3. 升息3碼+鴿調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數上漲2.5%至3%。
小摩團隊說,這是發生可能性第二高的情況,「如果你看到Fed為12月會議提供明確的指
引,那麼這可能被視為鴿派結果。」
4. 升息3碼+鷹調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數下跌1%至上漲0.5%
小摩團隊表示: 「這是最可能的結果,鮑爾保留12月和2023年會議上的選擇權,同時強
調當前的通膨上行風險。」該團隊還認為這是債券市場最預料的結果,因此表示,殖利率
可能不會出現重大波動,不會導致股市崩盤。
5. 升息4碼+鴿調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數下跌4%至5%
摩根大通分析師團隊說,雖然升息4碼的可能性不大,但可能意味著Fed既想要更高的終端
利率,也希望今年底前完成緊縮周期,「另外,市場可能據此認為Fed事先知道下周的消
費者物價指數(CPI)數字。」
6. 升息4碼+鷹調記者會
美股預料反應:標普500指數下跌6%至8%,可能下探年內低點
小摩團隊指出,這種結果對於等待最近漲勢消失的股市空頭人士而言是最佳結果,「這顯
然代表Fed重新評估自己的通膨預測,一些投資者原本就認為Fed的預測太樂觀」。
心得/評論:
3和4目前猜測機會最高,從fedwatch看目前比率11月應該無懸念3碼,但12月看起來425-450
和450-475各46~47%幾乎接近,這應該才是之後更重要的指標
--
Tags:
經濟
All Comments

By Iris
at 2022-11-02T13:36
at 2022-11-02T13:36

By Una
at 2022-11-02T20:46
at 2022-11-02T20:46

By Olga
at 2022-11-03T03:56
at 2022-11-03T03:56

By Kama
at 2022-11-03T11:06
at 2022-11-03T11:06

By James
at 2022-11-03T18:16
at 2022-11-03T18:16

By Regina
at 2022-11-04T01:26
at 2022-11-04T01:26

By Necoo
at 2022-11-04T08:36
at 2022-11-04T08:36

By Donna
at 2022-11-04T15:46
at 2022-11-04T15:46

By George
at 2022-11-04T22:56
at 2022-11-04T22:56

By Steve
at 2022-11-05T06:06
at 2022-11-05T06:06

By Adele
at 2022-11-05T13:16
at 2022-11-05T13:16

By Todd Johnson
at 2022-11-05T20:25
at 2022-11-05T20:25

By Kelly
at 2022-11-06T03:35
at 2022-11-06T03:35

By Freda
at 2022-11-06T10:45
at 2022-11-06T10:45

By Lucy
at 2022-11-06T17:55
at 2022-11-06T17:55

By Erin
at 2022-11-07T01:05
at 2022-11-07T01:05

By Heather
at 2022-11-07T08:15
at 2022-11-07T08:15

By Rebecca
at 2022-11-07T15:25
at 2022-11-07T15:25

By Lucy
at 2022-11-07T22:35
at 2022-11-07T22:35

By Agnes
at 2022-11-08T05:45
at 2022-11-08T05:45

By Belly
at 2022-11-08T12:55
at 2022-11-08T12:55

By Hedwig
at 2022-11-08T20:05
at 2022-11-08T20:05

By Ursula
at 2022-11-09T03:15
at 2022-11-09T03:15

By Necoo
at 2022-11-09T10:25
at 2022-11-09T10:25

By Ethan
at 2022-11-09T17:35
at 2022-11-09T17:35

By Una
at 2022-11-10T00:45
at 2022-11-10T00:45

By Zora
at 2022-11-10T07:55
at 2022-11-10T07:55

By Eden
at 2022-11-10T15:05
at 2022-11-10T15:05

By Jacky
at 2022-11-10T22:15
at 2022-11-10T22:15

By Carol
at 2022-11-11T05:25
at 2022-11-11T05:25

By Ingrid
at 2022-11-11T12:35
at 2022-11-11T12:35

By Olga
at 2022-11-11T19:44
at 2022-11-11T19:44

By Robert
at 2022-11-12T02:54
at 2022-11-12T02:54

By Annie
at 2022-11-12T10:04
at 2022-11-12T10:04

By Audriana
at 2022-11-12T17:14
at 2022-11-12T17:14

By Liam
at 2022-11-13T00:24
at 2022-11-13T00:24

By Audriana
at 2022-11-13T07:34
at 2022-11-13T07:34

By Ingrid
at 2022-11-13T14:44
at 2022-11-13T14:44

By Gilbert
at 2022-11-13T21:54
at 2022-11-13T21:54

By Odelette
at 2022-11-14T05:04
at 2022-11-14T05:04

By Joe
at 2022-11-14T12:14
at 2022-11-14T12:14

By Jessica
at 2022-11-14T19:24
at 2022-11-14T19:24

By Aaliyah
at 2022-11-15T02:34
at 2022-11-15T02:34

By Yedda
at 2022-11-15T09:44
at 2022-11-15T09:44

By Doris
at 2022-11-15T16:54
at 2022-11-15T16:54

By Jacky
at 2022-11-16T00:04
at 2022-11-16T00:04

By Edith
at 2022-11-16T07:14
at 2022-11-16T07:14

By Charlie
at 2022-11-16T14:24
at 2022-11-16T14:24

By Delia
at 2022-11-16T21:34
at 2022-11-16T21:34

By Rosalind
at 2022-11-17T04:44
at 2022-11-17T04:44

By Edith
at 2022-11-17T11:54
at 2022-11-17T11:54

By Andrew
at 2022-11-17T19:03
at 2022-11-17T19:03

By Skylar Davis
at 2022-11-18T02:13
at 2022-11-18T02:13

By Andy
at 2022-11-18T09:23
at 2022-11-18T09:23

By Mary
at 2022-11-18T16:33
at 2022-11-18T16:33

By Delia
at 2022-11-18T23:43
at 2022-11-18T23:43

By Madame
at 2022-11-19T06:53
at 2022-11-19T06:53

By Damian
at 2022-11-19T14:03
at 2022-11-19T14:03

By Irma
at 2022-11-19T21:13
at 2022-11-19T21:13

By Hedy
at 2022-11-20T04:23
at 2022-11-20T04:23

By Jack
at 2022-11-20T11:33
at 2022-11-20T11:33

By Gary
at 2022-11-20T18:43
at 2022-11-20T18:43

By Olive
at 2022-11-21T01:53
at 2022-11-21T01:53

By Faithe
at 2022-11-21T09:03
at 2022-11-21T09:03

By Olive
at 2022-11-21T16:13
at 2022-11-21T16:13

By Rachel
at 2022-11-21T23:23
at 2022-11-21T23:23

By Regina
at 2022-11-22T06:33
at 2022-11-22T06:33

By Jake
at 2022-11-22T13:43
at 2022-11-22T13:43

By Quintina
at 2022-11-22T20:53
at 2022-11-22T20:53

By Hedda
at 2022-11-23T04:03
at 2022-11-23T04:03

By Audriana
at 2022-11-23T11:13
at 2022-11-23T11:13

By Valerie
at 2022-11-23T18:22
at 2022-11-23T18:22

By Sandy
at 2022-11-24T01:32
at 2022-11-24T01:32

By Andrew
at 2022-11-24T08:42
at 2022-11-24T08:42

By Ethan
at 2022-11-24T15:52
at 2022-11-24T15:52

By Lauren
at 2022-11-24T23:02
at 2022-11-24T23:02

By Belly
at 2022-11-25T06:12
at 2022-11-25T06:12

By Quanna
at 2022-11-25T13:22
at 2022-11-25T13:22

By Jacky
at 2022-11-25T20:32
at 2022-11-25T20:32

By Ivy
at 2022-11-26T03:42
at 2022-11-26T03:42

By Caroline
at 2022-11-26T10:52
at 2022-11-26T10:52

By Puput
at 2022-11-26T18:02
at 2022-11-26T18:02

By Candice
at 2022-11-27T01:12
at 2022-11-27T01:12

By Agatha
at 2022-11-27T08:22
at 2022-11-27T08:22

By Ula
at 2022-11-27T15:32
at 2022-11-27T15:32

By Kama
at 2022-11-27T22:42
at 2022-11-27T22:42

By Eartha
at 2022-11-28T05:52
at 2022-11-28T05:52

By Carol
at 2022-11-28T13:02
at 2022-11-28T13:02

By Delia
at 2022-11-28T20:12
at 2022-11-28T20:12

By Edwina
at 2022-11-29T03:22
at 2022-11-29T03:22

By Jack
at 2022-11-29T10:32
at 2022-11-29T10:32

By Selena
at 2022-11-29T17:41
at 2022-11-29T17:41

By Hamiltion
at 2022-11-30T00:51
at 2022-11-30T00:51

By Steve
at 2022-11-30T08:01
at 2022-11-30T08:01

By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-11-30T15:11
at 2022-11-30T15:11

By Quintina
at 2022-11-30T22:21
at 2022-11-30T22:21

By Donna
at 2022-12-01T05:31
at 2022-12-01T05:31

By Regina
at 2022-12-01T12:41
at 2022-12-01T12:41

By Quintina
at 2022-12-01T19:51
at 2022-12-01T19:51

By George
at 2022-12-02T03:01
at 2022-12-02T03:01

By Franklin
at 2022-12-02T10:11
at 2022-12-02T10:11

By Donna
at 2022-12-02T17:21
at 2022-12-02T17:21

By Dinah
at 2022-12-03T00:31
at 2022-12-03T00:31

By Aaliyah
at 2022-12-03T07:41
at 2022-12-03T07:41

By Caitlin
at 2022-12-03T14:51
at 2022-12-03T14:51

By Sandy
at 2022-12-03T22:01
at 2022-12-03T22:01

By Ursula
at 2022-12-04T05:11
at 2022-12-04T05:11

By Ophelia
at 2022-12-04T12:21
at 2022-12-04T12:21

By Ophelia
at 2022-12-04T19:31
at 2022-12-04T19:31

By Dora
at 2022-12-05T02:41
at 2022-12-05T02:41

By Eden
at 2022-12-05T09:51
at 2022-12-05T09:51

By Una
at 2022-12-05T17:00
at 2022-12-05T17:00

By Jacob
at 2022-12-06T00:10
at 2022-12-06T00:10

By Daniel
at 2022-12-06T07:20
at 2022-12-06T07:20

By Sarah
at 2022-12-06T14:30
at 2022-12-06T14:30

By Madame
at 2022-12-06T21:40
at 2022-12-06T21:40

By Hedda
at 2022-12-07T04:50
at 2022-12-07T04:50

By Kama
at 2022-12-07T12:00
at 2022-12-07T12:00

By Tom
at 2022-12-07T19:10
at 2022-12-07T19:10

By William
at 2022-12-08T02:20
at 2022-12-08T02:20

By Elma
at 2022-12-08T09:30
at 2022-12-08T09:30

By Rachel
at 2022-12-08T16:40
at 2022-12-08T16:40

By Hedda
at 2022-12-08T23:50
at 2022-12-08T23:50

By Michael
at 2022-12-09T07:00
at 2022-12-09T07:00

By Bennie
at 2022-12-09T14:10
at 2022-12-09T14:10

By Andy
at 2022-12-09T21:20
at 2022-12-09T21:20

By Kumar
at 2022-12-10T04:30
at 2022-12-10T04:30

By Zanna
at 2022-12-10T11:40
at 2022-12-10T11:40

By Brianna
at 2022-12-10T18:50
at 2022-12-10T18:50

By Kelly
at 2022-12-11T02:00
at 2022-12-11T02:00

By Candice
at 2022-12-11T09:10
at 2022-12-11T09:10

By Regina
at 2022-12-11T16:19
at 2022-12-11T16:19

By Yedda
at 2022-12-11T23:29
at 2022-12-11T23:29

By David
at 2022-12-12T06:39
at 2022-12-12T06:39

By Freda
at 2022-12-12T13:49
at 2022-12-12T13:49

By Ethan
at 2022-12-12T20:59
at 2022-12-12T20:59

By Hamiltion
at 2022-12-13T04:09
at 2022-12-13T04:09

By Queena
at 2022-12-13T11:19
at 2022-12-13T11:19

By Iris
at 2022-12-13T18:29
at 2022-12-13T18:29

By Olivia
at 2022-12-14T01:39
at 2022-12-14T01:39

By Zora
at 2022-12-14T08:49
at 2022-12-14T08:49

By Iris
at 2022-12-14T15:59
at 2022-12-14T15:59

By Olga
at 2022-12-14T23:09
at 2022-12-14T23:09

By Hamiltion
at 2022-12-15T06:19
at 2022-12-15T06:19
Related Posts
加拿大央行升息從3碼變2碼

By Lily
at 2022-10-27T12:30
at 2022-10-27T12:30
投行大空頭喊多,Fed官員拋升息放緩言論

By Isla
at 2022-10-27T12:29
at 2022-10-27T12:29
Fed鷹王支持12月升息3碼 但終端利率無需更高

By Olivia
at 2022-10-27T12:26
at 2022-10-27T12:26
為什麼CPI高於預期 結果是大噴噴

By Hazel
at 2022-10-27T12:25
at 2022-10-27T12:25
講解 美國財政部買回公債計畫

By Doris
at 2022-10-27T00:09
at 2022-10-27T00:09