Fed升息一碼，並暗示2019只會升兩次 - 股票

原本2019年預計升息3~4次
代表經濟數據持續強勁

今日決議，明年2019年，預計只升息2次

這表示經濟前景比以前不景氣

目前景氣處在高檔，正要往下
不管升息幾次，就是要殺

這次的會議結果，給空頭很好的機會
不再受升息次數調整的干擾
一切由產業景氣主導

老話一句，拉高請逃命

※ 引述《meRscliche (如此而已)》之銘言：
: 1.原文連結：
: https://yhoo.it/2Reg5Fb
: Yahoo Finance
: < Fed hikes rates, but signals just two more hikes in 2019 >
: 2.原文內容：
: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the fourth time t
hi
: s year.
: 這次是今年第四次升息
: The Fed increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 25 bas
is
: points to a new band of 2.25%-2.5%, putting the Fed funds rate at its highe
st
: level since the spring of 2008.孭ll ten voting members of the FOMC voted in
f
: avor of Wednesday’s decision.
: 升息一碼，Fed funds rate來到2.25%~2.5%。十位具投票權之委員，都投下這次升息的
同
: 意票。（本次FOMC共17人參與）
: In its statement, the Fed pointed to a labor market that has “continued to
st
: rengthen” and economic activity that is “rising at a strong rate.” The Fe
d
: did note the slowdown in private investment seen over the last several month
s,
: saying “business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlie
r
: in the year.”
: Fed聲明表示：勞動市場、經濟成長皆強健。Fed有注意到私部門投資，數月來成長趨緩
；
: 企業固定投資緩和下來，不若其於上半年的快速。
: Along with its latest policy statement the Fed also released an updated set
of
: economic projections, which shows a downgrade in the Fed’s forecast for in
te
: rest rate hikes next year.
: Fed表示2019升息次數將減少。
: The Fed’s latest dot plot now shows the FOMC’s median forecast calling for
t
: wo rate hikes in 2019, down from three in September. Six members of the FOMC
,
: however, see three rate hikes next year as appropriate.
: 最新的dot plot 的中位數預測，展現了Fed認為2019將升息兩次，比9月預估的三次下
降
: 了。但依然有6位（共17位）認為會升息到3次。
: (幫補上個圖)
: https://i.imgur.com/sVUZtRm.jpg
: The longer-run neutral rate of interest that is expected to sustain full emp
lo
: yment and price stability also fell slightly in December, with the median FO
MC
: forecast now indicating the neutral rate is 2.8%, down from 3% in September
.
: 對於長期的「中性利率」在哪，17人的中位數落在2.8%（其實是2.75%，而且下面數來
第1
: 0個人就跳到3%了好嗎），比9月時的相同數字3%低。
: In late November, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell moved markets烀hen he
sa
: id濳he Fed funds rate was “just below” the range of estimates for the neut
ra
: l rate of interest that allows the economy to sustain 2% inflation and full
em
: ployment. That range of estimates has now come down, indicating the current
cy
: cle of interest rate increases is closer to its end than previously thought.
: 11月底時（11/27），Powell 說目前利率只比「中性利率」僅低一點。隨著今日的升息
，
: 本次利率循環又更接近尾聲了。
: Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting markets had all but priced out any further rat
e
: increases in 2019. The Fed’s downgrade in its expected path for future rate
h
: ikes shows the central bank softening its view towards how many more interes
t
: rate increases will be needed before the neutral rate is reached, though mar
ke
: t pricing and the Fed’s new forecast are still out of step.
: （跳過）
: Financial market volatility was also acknowledged by the Fed in Wednesday’s
s
: tatement, with the central bank adding language which said it, “will contin
ue
: to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their impl
ic
: ations for the economic outlook.” In November, the Fed said simply that ris
ks
: to the economic outlook were roughly balanced.
: The Fed made a key change to its forward guidance on Wednesday, saying that
“
: some further gradual increases” in the Fed funds rate would be warranted. T
hi
: s alters previous language that had simply said “further gradual increases
”
: would be necessary. The addition of the word “some” — in addition to the
ne
: w dot plot — suggests the Fed is nearing what it sees as the end of the cur
re
: nt tightening cycle.
: Fed 在未來的指導原則敘述中，做了重大改變，語氣變的較鴿派，再搭配上 dot plot
，
: 這兩個證據，暗示了緊縮循環即將進入尾聲。
: The Fed on Wednesday also tempered its expectations for economic growth this
y
: ear and next, forecasting real GDP growth of 3% this year and 2.3% next year
.
: In September, the Fed forecasted real GDP growth of 3.1% and 2.5% in 2018 an
d
: 2019, respectively.
: 2018 & 2019實質GDP預估，比起9月時都被下修了
: 2018：3.1% -> 3%
: 2019：2.5% -> 2.3%
: Inflation forecasts for the Fed were also downgraded on Wednesday, with core
P
: CE inflation now expected to rise 1.9% this year and 2% over the next three
ye
: ars. In September, the Fed had expected core inflation to rise 2% in 2018 an
d
: 2.1% in each of the next three years. Since the Fed’s September meeting, oi
l
: prices have declined sharply and inflation data have softened.
: 通膨（核心PCE）預測也較9月下修了，因為9月的升息導致石油價格大跌，通膨因此疲
軟
: 。
: 2018：2% -> 1.9%
: 接下來三年：2.1% -> 2%
: The Fed’s unemployment forecast was little-changed on Wednesday, with unemp
lo
: yment expected to be 3.7% this year and 3.5% next year, unchanged from Septe
mb
: er. In 2020 and 2021, the Fed now sees unemployment rates of 3.6% and 3.8%,
re
: spectively, increases of 0.1% from September’s forecast. Both years, howeve
r,
: are expected to see unemployment rates below the Fed’s long-run forecast o
f
: a 4.4% unemployment rate that sustains a “full employment” environment.
: 預測失業率的部分，相較於9月，只有上修一點點：
: 2018 -> 一樣3.7%
: 2019 -> 一樣3.5%
: 2020 -> 3.6%，上修0.1%
: 2021 -> 3.8%，上修0.1%
: 即使微幅上修2020與2021，這兩年的失業率，依然低於Fed 長期預測的4.4%。而Fed認
為
: 在充分就業下的失業率（i.e.自然失業率）就在4.4%附近。
: On a more technical note, the Federal Reserve also announced that the intere
st
: paid on excess reserves, or IOER rate, at 2.4%, 10 basis points below the u
pp
: er band of the Fed funds rate.
: In June and then in September, the Fed set the IOER 5 basis points below the
F
: ed funds rate to maintain a cushion between the upper band of its targeted r
an
: ge and the effective rate paid out to reserves kept at the Fed. In recent mo
nt
: hs, the effective Fed funds rate has been sitting around 2.19%, just 1 basis
p
: oint below the previous IOER.
: （跳）
: 3.心得/評論：
: 開獎了，道瓊目前 -1.16%，標普 -1.29%。台股準備好跳水！
: 雖然各種經濟預估下修，但以歷史來看，似乎還沒到崩盤危機？但，短暫拉回是避免不
了
: 。

--