Fed升息一碼，並表示2019只會升兩次 - 股票

1.原文連結：
https://yhoo.it/2Reg5Fb

Yahoo Finance
< Fed hikes rates, but signals just two more hikes in 2019 >

2.原文內容：

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the fourth time thi
s year.

這次是今年第四次升息

The Fed increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis
points to a new band of 2.25%-2.5%, putting the Fed funds rate at its highest
level since the spring of 2008.孭ll ten voting members of the FOMC voted in f
avor of Wednesday’s decision.

升息一碼，Fed funds rate來到2.25%~2.5%。十位具投票權之委員，都投下這次升息的同
意票。（本次FOMC共17人參與）

In its statement, the Fed pointed to a labor market that has “continued to st
rengthen” and economic activity that is “rising at a strong rate.” The Fed
did note the slowdown in private investment seen over the last several months,
saying “business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier
in the year.”

Fed聲明表示：勞動市場、經濟成長皆強健。Fed有注意到私部門投資，數月來成長趨緩；
企業固定投資緩和下來，不若其於上半年的快速。

Along with its latest policy statement the Fed also released an updated set of
economic projections, which shows a downgrade in the Fed’s forecast for inte
rest rate hikes next year.

Fed表示2019升息次數將減少。

The Fed’s latest dot plot now shows the FOMC’s median forecast calling for t
wo rate hikes in 2019, down from three in September. Six members of the FOMC,
however, see three rate hikes next year as appropriate.

最新的dot plot 的中位數預測，展現了Fed認為2019將升息兩次，比9月預估的三次下降
了。但依然有6位（共17位）認為會升息到3次。

(幫補上個圖)
https://i.imgur.com/sVUZtRm.jpg

The longer-run neutral rate of interest that is expected to sustain full emplo
yment and price stability also fell slightly in December, with the median FOMC
forecast now indicating the neutral rate is 2.8%, down from 3% in September.


對於長期的「中性利率」在哪，17人的中位數落在2.8%（其實是2.75%，而且下面數來第1
0個人就跳到3%了好嗎），比9月時的相同數字3%低。

In late November, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell moved markets烀hen he sa
id濳he Fed funds rate was “just below” the range of estimates for the neutra
l rate of interest that allows the economy to sustain 2% inflation and full em
ployment. That range of estimates has now come down, indicating the current cy
cle of interest rate increases is closer to its end than previously thought.


11月底時（11/27），Powell 說目前利率只比「中性利率」僅低一點。隨著今日的升息，
本次利率循環又更接近尾聲了。

Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting markets had all but priced out any further rate
increases in 2019. The Fed’s downgrade in its expected path for future rate h
ikes shows the central bank softening its view towards how many more interest
rate increases will be needed before the neutral rate is reached, though marke
t pricing and the Fed’s new forecast are still out of step.

（跳過）

Financial market volatility was also acknowledged by the Fed in Wednesday’s s
tatement, with the central bank adding language which said it, “will continue
to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implic
ations for the economic outlook.” In November, the Fed said simply that risks
to the economic outlook were roughly balanced.

The Fed made a key change to its forward guidance on Wednesday, saying that “
some further gradual increases” in the Fed funds rate would be warranted. Thi
s alters previous language that had simply said “further gradual increases”
would be necessary. The addition of the word “some” — in addition to the ne
w dot plot — suggests the Fed is nearing what it sees as the end of the curre
nt tightening cycle.

Fed 在未來的指導原則敘述中，做了重大改變，語氣變的較鴿派，再搭配上 dot plot ，
這兩個證據，暗示了緊縮循環即將進入尾聲。


The Fed on Wednesday also tempered its expectations for economic growth this y
ear and next, forecasting real GDP growth of 3% this year and 2.3% next year.
In September, the Fed forecasted real GDP growth of 3.1% and 2.5% in 2018 and
2019, respectively.

2018 & 2019實質GDP預估，比起9月時都被下修了
2018：3.1% -> 3%
2019：2.5% -> 2.3%

Inflation forecasts for the Fed were also downgraded on Wednesday, with core P
CE inflation now expected to rise 1.9% this year and 2% over the next three ye
ars. In September, the Fed had expected core inflation to rise 2% in 2018 and
2.1% in each of the next three years. Since the Fed’s September meeting, oil
prices have declined sharply and inflation data have softened.

通膨（核心PCE）預測也較9月下修了，因為9月的升息導致石油價格大跌，通膨因此疲軟
。
2018：2% -> 1.9%
接下來三年：2.1% -> 2%

The Fed’s unemployment forecast was little-changed on Wednesday, with unemplo
yment expected to be 3.7% this year and 3.5% next year, unchanged from Septemb
er. In 2020 and 2021, the Fed now sees unemployment rates of 3.6% and 3.8%, re
spectively, increases of 0.1% from September’s forecast. Both years, however,
are expected to see unemployment rates below the Fed’s long-run forecast of
a 4.4% unemployment rate that sustains a “full employment” environment.

預測失業率的部分，相較於9月，只有上修一點點：
2018 -> 一樣3.7%
2019 -> 一樣3.5%
2020 -> 3.6%，上修0.1%
2021 -> 3.8%，上修0.1%

即使微幅上修2020與2021，這兩年的失業率，依然低於Fed 長期預測的4.4%。而Fed認為
在充分就業下的失業率（i.e.自然失業率）就在4.4%附近。

On a more technical note, the Federal Reserve also announced that the interest
paid on excess reserves, or IOER rate, at 2.4%, 10 basis points below the upp
er band of the Fed funds rate.

In June and then in September, the Fed set the IOER 5 basis points below the F
ed funds rate to maintain a cushion between the upper band of its targeted ran
ge and the effective rate paid out to reserves kept at the Fed. In recent mont
hs, the effective Fed funds rate has been sitting around 2.19%, just 1 basis p
oint below the previous IOER.

（跳）


3.心得/評論：

開獎了，道瓊目前 -1.16%，標普 -1.29%。台股準備好跳水！

雖然各種經濟預估下修，但以歷史來看，似乎還沒到崩盤危機？但，短暫拉回是避免不了
。

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