Bank earnings, retail sales: What to k - 股票

Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2021-04-12T02:25

Table of Contents

原文標題:

Bank earnings, retail sales: What to know this week
銀行收益,零售額:本週須知

原文連結:

https://reurl.cc/E2yyLK

發布時間:

Mon, April 12, 2021, 12:20 AM·

原文內容:

A deluge of corporate earnings results and economic data due for release this
week will test investors after the stock market's latest record-setting
rally.

Traders have been pricing in the likelihood of a rebound in corporate
earnings to coincide with the recent batch of better-than-expected economic
data. Another round of firming economic data is expected this week, with the
effects of the latest round of fiscal stimulus and recent roll-back of more
social distancing restrictions bolstering economic activity.

First-quarter corporate earnings likely benefited from this firming economic
backdrop. Over the last several months, analysts have raised their aggregate
S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by a record 6.0%, according to
FactSet data.

And first-quarter earnings season will kick off with quarterly reports from
the big banks, which have seen some of the sharpest upward revisions to
profit estimates. In fact, the financial sector saw the second-largest
increase in bottom-up EPS estimates of all 11 sectors in the S&P 500,
according to FactSet, coming second only to the energy sector. Financials'
EPS estimates were revised up by 13.1%, which marked the second-largest
quarterly increase for the sector since FactSet started tracking the metric
in 2002.

The rosier outlook for bank profits coincided with a sharp move higher in
Treasury yields as expectations for economic growth increased. The benchmark
10-year Treasury yield has advanced by more than 70 basis points for the
year-to-date, with highest interest rates helping to boost the income banks
derive from their core lending businesses. The S&P 500 financials sector has
gained more than 18% for the year-to-date, or double the return of the
broader market of the broader market, as the recent rotation into cyclical
shares with earnings levered to a strong economic rebound lifted banking
stocks.

The banks reporting quarterly earnings results this week — including
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan
Stanley (MS) – will likely already reflect a bottom-line boost from this
higher-rate environment. Big banks' first-quarter results will also likely
get another boost from trading activity, given the stock markets
record-setting rally and volatility in the bond markets so far this year.
Fixed-income trading revenues already rose by the most in at least a decade
across the bond trading divisions at Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley,
JPMorgan and Bank of America last quarter, according to an Axios analysis.

However, with the latest rise in rates now well known and priced in by
investors, the next leg higher for bank stocks will likely require a new
driver, said Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor. And last week, cyclical
sectors already lost some momentum, as steadying rates prompted a resurgence
in technology and growth stocks.

"The next big catalyst for bank stocks is likely to be the return of loan
growth. Many view loan growth as one of the biggest long-term drivers of bank
earnings and of higher quality than the boost from higher interest rates,"
O'Connor wrote in a recent note. "Loans are coming in weaker than expected in
1Q... and may be sluggish again in 2Q given likely further deleveraging from
fiscal stimulus (and tax returns) and as [the] COVID-19 vaccine rollout will
take a good portion of the quarter (likely pushing the expected surge of
investment into 3Q or even 4Q)."

"But, we are confident loan growth will pick up and expect a sharp rise in 4Q
given a likely robust holiday season, closing of acquisitions and hopefully
investment by companies to expand and take advantage of what should be a
multi-year economic expansion," he said.

Major sources of loan growth will likely come from both consumer spending
during the post-pandemic recovery, and from businesses looking to ramp up
deal-making activity and corporate investment as uncertainty around the
pandemic diminishes.

Retail sales
A key print on consumer spending will be released on Thursday, with
consumption poised to get a boost from the delivery of stimulus checks and
warming spring weather.

Consensus economists expect the Commerce Department's March retail sales
report to show a monthly gain of 5.4% in March, according to Bloomberg data.
This would follow a 3% drop in sales in February, as inclement weather and
diminishing effects from the January round of $600 stimulus checks weighed on
the month-over-month change in spending. Still, retail sales remained higher
by 6.3% in February over the same month in 2020, with consumer spending one
of the areas of the economy to bounce back fastest to pre-pandemic levels.

"The latest round of stimulus checks, $1,400 per qualified individual
totaling $410 billion, started to go out in mid-March, supporting another
surge in spending," Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note Friday.
"For non-core components, credit card data for food service spending suggests
a sharp acceleration as warmer temperatures swept across the U.S. and state
and local governments eased restrictions on activity."

"Beyond March, spending should continue to be supported by reopening and
continued stimulus check disbursement," he added. "That said, in the months
ahead, there could be at least some modest payback following the
stimulus-driven surge in spending, similar to the January-February period."

According to Bank of America, the March retail sales report could post an
even faster gain than consensus economists are anticipating.

"Based on aggregated BAC card data, retail sales ex-autos increased 11.1%
[month-over-month] in March, showing the impact of stimulus, reopening and
better weather," economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. "This should set
up for a very strong Census Bureau report; indeed, we see upside for Census
even relative to our 11% growth rate."

During the seven days ended March 20, Bank of America credit and debit card
spending surged 45% over the same period last year and 23% over the same
timeframe in 2019, which the firm attributed largely to the disbursement of
stimulus checks. Recent card spending data from JPMorgan Chase corroborated
these trends: Spending on Chase cards was up about 24% year-over-year during
the seven days ending March 19, accelerating from growth rates of less than
10% in January.

Economic calendar
Monday: Monthly budget statement, March (-$720.0 billion expected, -$310.9
billion in February)

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, March (98.0 expected, 95.8 in
February); Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month, March (0.5% expected,
0.4% in February); CPI excluding food and energy month-over-month, March
(0.2% expected, 0.1% in February); CPI year-over-year, March (2.5% expected,
1.7% in February); CPI excluding food and energy year-over-year, March (1.5%
expected, 1.3% in February); Real average weekly earnings year-over-year,
March (4.1% in February); Real average hourly earnings year-over-year, March
(3.4% in February)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 9 (-5.1% during prior week);
Import price index, month-over-month, March (1.0% expected, 1.3% in
February); Import price index, year-over-year, March (3.0% in February);
Export price index, month-over-month, March (1.0% expected, 1.6% in
February); Export price index, year-over-year, March (5.3% in February);
Federal Reserve releases Beige Book

Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended April 10 (700,000 expected,
744,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended April 3 (3.700
million expected, 3.734 million during prior month); Retail sales advance
month-over-month, March (5.1% expected, -3.0% in February); Retail sales
excluding autos and gas, March (6.5% expected, -3.3% in February); Empire
Manufacturing Index, April (18.0 expected, 17.4 in March); Philadelphia fed
Business Outlook index, April (2.7% expected, -2.2% in March); Industrial
production, month-over-month, March (2.7% expected, -2.2% in February);
Capacity Utilization, March (75.6% expected, 73.8% in February); Business
inventories, February (0.5% expected, 0.3% in January); NAHB Housing Market
Index, April (84 expected, 82 in March); Total Net TIC Flows, February
($106.3 billion in January); Net long-term TIC flows, February ($90.8 billion
in January)

Friday: Housing Starts, March (1.602 million expected, 1.421 million in
February); Building permits, March (1.750 million expected, 1.720 million in
February); University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, April
preliminary (89.0 expected, 84.9 in March)

Earnings calendar
Monday: N/A

Tuesday: Fastenal Co (FAST) before market open

Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bed
Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open

Thursday: Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Truist Financial Corp
(TFC), The Progressive Corp (PGR), US Bancorp (USB), UnitedHealth Group
(UNH), PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), BlackRock (BLK), Rite Aid (RAD),
Citigroup (C) before market open; Alcoa (AA) after market close

Friday: Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), PNC Financial
Services Group (PNC), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Citizens Financial Group
(CFG), State Street Corp (STT), Ally Financial (ALLY) before market open


機翻如下:

本周將公佈的大量企業財報和經濟數據將在股市最新創紀錄的反彈之後考驗投資者。

交易員一直在為企業盈利反彈的可能性定價,以配合最近一批高於預期的經濟數據。預計
本周將有另一輪堅挺的經濟數據,最新一輪財政刺激政策的效果和近期取消更多的社交距
離限制將支撐經濟活動。

第一季度企業盈利很可能受益於這種堅挺的經濟背景。據FactSet數據顯示,在過去幾個
月裏,分析師將標普500指數的每股收益(EPS)總預期上調了6.0%,創下歷史新高。

而第一季度財報季將以大銀行的季報拉開序幕,這些銀行的利潤預期上調幅度最大。事實
上,根據FactSet的數據,在標普500指數所有11個行業中,金融行業的EPS預期自下而上
的上調幅度位居第二,僅次於能源行業。金融板塊的每股收益預期上調了13.1%,這是自
FactSet在2002年開始追蹤該指標以來該板塊第二大季度漲幅。

在銀行利潤前景較為樂觀的同時,由於對經濟增長的預期增強,國債收益率大幅走高。10
年期國債收益率年初至今已走高超過70個基點,最高利率有助於提升銀行從核心貸款業務
中獲得的收入。標普500金融板塊年初至今漲幅超過18%,或為大盤大盤回報率的兩倍,因
近期輪動到盈利受經濟強勁反彈影響的週期股,提振銀行股。

本周公佈季度財報的銀行--包括摩根大通(JPM)、高盛(GS)、富國銀行(WFC)和摩根士丹利
(MS)--很可能已經反映出這種高息環境對盈利的提振。考慮到今年以來股市創紀錄的漲幅
和債券市場的波動,大銀行的第一季度業績也可能會從交易活動中得到另一個提振。據
Axios分析,上季度高盛、花旗、摩根士丹利、摩根大通和美國銀行各債券交易部門的固
定收益交易收入已經創下至少十年來最大增幅。

不過,德意志銀行分析師Matt O'Connor表示,由於最新的利率上升已經眾所周知,並被
投資者定價,銀行股下一步的上漲可能需要新的驅動力。而上周,週期性行業已經失去了
一些動能,因為穩定的利率促使科技股和成長股重新崛起。

"銀行股的下一個大催化劑可能是貸款增長的回歸。許多人認為貸款增長是銀行盈利的最
大長期驅動力之一,且品質高於利率上升帶來的提振,"O'Connor在最近的一份說明中寫
道。" 1季度的貸款比預期的要弱......鑒於財政刺激政策(和稅收回報)可能會進一步
去槓桿化,並且由於COVID-19疫苗的推廣將佔用本季度的很大一部分時間(可能會將預期
的投資激增遞延至3季度甚至4季度),2季度的貸款可能會再次疲軟。"

"但是,我們有信心貸款增長將回升,並預計4季度將大幅上升,因為可能會有一個強勁的
假期季節,結束收購,並希望公司投資擴張並利用應該是多年的經濟擴張,"他說。

貸款增長的主要來源可能來自於流行病後復蘇期間的消費者支出,以及隨著流行病的不確
定性減弱,尋求加快交易活動和企業投資的企業。

零售銷售
週四將公佈消費者支出的關鍵報告,消費將從消費刺激措施支票的交付和春暖花開中得到
提振。

據彭博數據顯示,經濟學家一致預期商務部3月零售銷售報告將顯示3月月度增長5.4%。這
將是繼2月份銷售額下降3%之後的又一變化,因為惡劣的天氣和1月份600美元刺激措施支
票的效果減弱,拖累了支出的月度同比變化。不過,2月零售額仍較2020年同期增長6.3%
,消費者支出是經濟中最快反彈至流行前水準的領域之一。

"最新一輪的經濟刺激支票,每個合格的個人1400美元,共計4100億美元,在3月中旬開始
發放,支持了又一次的支出激增,"野村經濟學家Lewis Alexander週五在一份說明中寫道
。"對於非核心部分,餐飲服務支出的信用卡數據表明,隨著溫暖的氣溫席捲全美,州政
府和地方政府放鬆了對活動的限制,支出急劇加速。"

"3月以後,支出應該繼續受到重新開放和持續刺激支票發放的支持,"他補充道。"話雖如
此,在未來幾個月裏,在刺激措施推動的支出激增之後,至少可能會出現一些溫和的回報
,類似於1-2月期間。"

根據美國銀行的數據,3月零售銷售報告可能會錄得比經濟學家一致預期的更快增長。

"基於匯總的BAC卡數據,3月除汽車外的零售銷售增長了11.1%[月環比],顯示了刺激措施
、重新開放和更好天氣的影響,"經濟學家Michelle Meyer在一份說明中寫道。"這應該為
一份非常強勁的人口普查局報告做準備;事實上,我們看到了人口普查的上升空間,即使
相對於我們11%的增長率。"

在截至3月20日的七天內,美國銀行信用卡和借記卡支出比去年同期激增45%,比2019年同
期激增23%,該公司認為這主要是由於刺激政策支票的發放。摩根大通最近的銀行卡消費
數據印證了這些趨勢。在截至3月19日的七天內,大通卡的消費額同比增長約24%,比1月
份不到10%的增長率有所加快。

經濟日曆
星期一,月度預算報表,3月(預期為7200億美元,2月為3109億美元)。月度預算報表,
3月(預期為7 200億美元,2月為3 109億美元)

週二。3月NFIB小企業樂觀指數(預期98.0,2月95.8);3月消費者物價指數月環比(預
期0.5%,2月0.4%);3月剔除食品和能源的消費者物價指數月環比(預期0.2%,2月0.1%
);3月消費者物價指數同比(2. 5%,2月為1.7%);3月剔除食品和能源的CPI同比(預
期1.5%,2月為1.3%);3月實際平均周收入同比(2月為4.1%);3月實際平均小時收入同
比(2月為3.4%)。

週三 4月9日MBA抵押貸款申請情況(前一周為-5.1%);3月進口物價指數月環比(預期
1.0%,2月為1.3%);3月進口物價指數年環比(2月為3.0%);3月出口物價指數月環比(
預期1.0%,2月為1.6%);3月出口物價指數年環比(2月為5.3%);美聯儲發佈鴿派書。

週四。截至4月10日當周初請失業金人數(預期70萬,前一周為74.4萬);截至4月3日當
周續請失業金人數(預期370萬,前一個月為373.4萬);3月零售銷售月環比預增(預期
5.1%,2月為-3.0%);3月扣除汽車和天然氣的零售銷售(預期6.5%,2月為-3.3%);4月
帝國製造業指數(預期18.0,3月為17.4);4月費城fed商業景氣指數(2. 7%,3月為
-2.2%);3月工業生產月環比(預期2.7%,2月為-2.2%);3月產能利用率(預期75.6%,
2月為73.8%);2月企業庫存(預期0.5%,1月為0.3%);4月NAHB住房市場指數(預期84
,3月為82);2月TIC總淨流量(1月為1063億美元);2月長期TIC淨流量(1月為908億美
元)。

週五。3月房屋開工(預期160.2萬,2月142.1萬);3月建築許可(預期175萬,2月172萬);
4月密歇根大學消費者情緒調查初值(預期89.0,3月84.9)

盈利日曆
星期一:N/A

週二 Fastenal公司(FAST)開市前。(預期季報同比增長)

週三。摩根大通(JPM)、高盛(GS)、富國銀行(WFC)、Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)開市前。(
預期季報同比增長)

星期四。美國銀行(BAC)、Charles Schwab(SCHW)、Truist Financial Corp(TFC)、The
Progressive Corp(PGR)、US Bancorp(USB)、UnitedHealth Group(UNH)、PepsiCo(PEP)
、Delta Air Lines(DAL)、BlackRock(BLK)、Rite Aid(RAD)、Citigroup(C)開市前;
Alcoa(AA)收市後。

星期五。摩根士丹利(MS)、紐約梅隆銀行(BK)、PNC金融服務集團(PNC)、堪薩斯城南方銀
行(KSU)、公民金融集團(CFG)、道富銀行(STT)、Ally金融(ALLY)在開市前。



心得/評論:

一片樂觀

不過市場反應有時未必和經濟數字有那麼直觀的關聯

特別是季報前短期大幅拉升的股票

難保不會在季報出來以後有超出預期的反應





--
Tags: 股票

All Comments

Freda avatar
By Freda
at 2021-04-13T22:45
文章段落分類清楚好閱讀 好久沒有這樣QQ
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2021-04-16T14:50
金鬲虫口賁火暴
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2021-04-18T13:00
推!
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2021-04-22T04:09
GS跟MS那筆虧損應該會計入下一季
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2021-04-25T08:23
好幾家銀行合併效益可期,嘉信不但碰上股市大多頭又
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2021-04-27T01:16
搬到德州稅賦減輕,應該會很有看頭

2062 橋椿

Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2021-04-11T23:53
※ 引述《garyoldb (蓋瑞歐德B)》之銘言: : : 這部分我來補充討論一下 ,大大可以討論看看 : : 1.折舊部分,沒意見那已經是既定事實了,估計5—7年後機器部分折完才有大變化 : 這部分同意,折舊部分是既定現實,不用跟2016的財報比 : 只要確定擺脫2017年起逐年衰退的狀況,股價就有一段想 ...

有辦法用台股組出像VTI高分散低管理費嗎

Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2021-04-11T22:59
1. 標的: 有辦法用台股ETF組成像VTI高分散 低管理費嗎 2. 分類:請益 3. 分析/正文:如果要長期投資ETF,低管理費很重要, 高分散也可以降低風險 所以美股 有很多人投資VTI 但是有些人不想接觸匯率問題只想買台股 我想請問一下大大 如果用台股ETF或其他方式 有辦法組成像VTI的標的嗎 我 ...

台股拚「萬七」再現 投信:台灣經濟近20年最強

Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2021-04-11T22:46
原文標題: 台股拚「萬七」再現 投信:台灣經濟近20年最強 原文連結: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202104110057.aspx 發布時間: 2021/04/11 12:32 原文內容: 台股拚「萬七」再現 投信:台灣經濟近20年最強 最新更新:202 ...

1980年代政府因應股市泡沫作為 前經建會副主委回顧

Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2021-04-11T22:33
〈銀行家觀點〉1980年代政府因應股市泡沫作為 前經建會副主委回顧 https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3491096 台灣錢淹腳目的1980年代,資產價格狂飆,股市倍數升漲,全民皆瘋股的時代,大 家或許仍記憶猶新。2020年,台灣因防疫有成,股市飆、房市 ...

6568 宏觀 低調誠意滿滿多

Rae avatar
By Rae
at 2021-04-11T22:04
1. 標的: 6568 宏觀 2. 分類:多 3. 分析/正文: 1. 公司營運方面近年都有eps接近10塊的表現,去年疫情影響上半年表現不佳。但後期有 回溫。目前股價被低估中 2.成交量小,話題性不高,目前就缺關愛。 3.去年eps七塊多,發5塊現金、2塊股息,誠意滿滿。公司派作多意味濃厚 4.股價在所 ...