黑天鵝作者:紓困=企業好處全拿,虧損卻 - 股票
By Linda
at 2020-03-27T23:46
at 2020-03-27T23:46
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:https://bit.ly/3dvh5Nr
2.原文內容:
黑天鵝作者:紓困=企業好處全拿,虧損卻由納稅人買單
武漢肺炎肆虐全球,波音(Boeing)和航空業者高呼,這是黑天鵝事件,要求政府紓困。
《黑天鵝效應》作者塔雷伯(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)與門生 Mark Spitznage 聯合發
文痛批,疫情根本不是黑天鵝,企業在好日子時砸錢大買庫藏股,出了問題就丟給納稅人
買單。
塔雷伯和 Spitznagel 26 日在 Medium 發文稱,許多人說,疫情是黑天鵝事件,出乎意
料且難以防範,要是這些人真的看了書,就會知道全球大流行病是「白天鵝」,是發生機
率很高的事件,現代社會結構下,嚴峻的大流行病無可避免。
許多行業要求紓困,2008~2009 年的全球金融海嘯是前車之鑑,當時的美國財長蓋特納(
Timothy Geithner)對抗國會和部分官員,全力替銀行家護航。結果虧掉了銀行史上全數
獲利的銀行家,不到 2 年就拿到空前紅利。蓋特納卸任後幾年,轉往金融業領取優渥高
薪。
這是明目張膽的「企業社會主義」(corporate socialism),好處產業拿走,經理人背
後有納稅人撐腰。換句話說,企業人士留住利潤、虧損轉嫁給納稅人。其間的不平衡創造
出道德風險(moral hazard),就像丟銅板丟到正面,銀行家贏;但是丟到反面,不是銀
行家輸,而是納稅人輸。這還沒算進去量化寬鬆(QE)膨脹資產價值,加劇貧富不均。別
忘了紓困資金來自印鈔,相對於紐約超豪華公寓的資產價值,中產階級薪水將遭壓縮。
他們支持拯救航空業等行業,但是這不等於補貼企業股東和口袋飽飽的經理人,製造更多
道德風險。拯救航空業是因為航空是公用事業、是必需品,但是企業經理人不是。2006
年起,他們就大力呼籲企業應該建立緩衝以備不時之需。為什麼要替大買庫藏股的公司紓
困?這些公司砸錢買自家股票,卻不願留錢應急。替此種企業紓困,等於教訓作風保守的
公司。
美企狂買庫藏股 大難當頭喊沒錢
華爾街日報、Barron’s 22 日報導,許多行業叫窮,要求政府紓困。但是倘若這些行業
把購買庫藏股的錢,用來提高職員薪資、或留作儲備現金,現在情況會好上許多。左派智
庫羅斯福研究所(Roosevelt Institute)經濟學家 Lenore Palladino 估計,
2015~2019 年,美國 3 大航空業者逾 50% 淨利用於購買庫藏股。飯店業更誇張,希爾頓
酒店集團(Hilton Worldwide)有 93% 淨利用於庫藏股、Hyatt Hotels Corp 有 137%
淨利用於庫藏股,Marriott International 更有 182% 淨利用於庫藏股。
波音也要求政府援助,麻州大學洛厄爾分校(University of Massachusetts Lowell)經
濟學家 William Lazonick 去年論文指出,2013~2019 年波音撥款 431 億美元購買庫藏
股,打壓該公司的安全開支,也超過該公司的此一時期的獲利。
Barron’s、金融時報、衛報 23 日報導,許多企業在牛市時大發股息、狂買庫藏股,等
到真的需要資金時,無錢可用。美企灑錢的情況有多誇張?目前美國政府的疫情援助方案
,規模約 2 兆美元。2017~2019 年,標普 500 企業豪擲逾 2 兆美元回購庫藏股;2019
年美企的股息發放率大增 4.7% 達 4.91 億美元,總額創空前新高。
--
沒事亞當斯密,有事凱因斯
美國企業:有本事放著我倒啊,賭你不敢啦!
--
2.原文內容:
黑天鵝作者:紓困=企業好處全拿,虧損卻由納稅人買單
武漢肺炎肆虐全球,波音(Boeing)和航空業者高呼,這是黑天鵝事件,要求政府紓困。
《黑天鵝效應》作者塔雷伯(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)與門生 Mark Spitznage 聯合發
文痛批,疫情根本不是黑天鵝,企業在好日子時砸錢大買庫藏股,出了問題就丟給納稅人
買單。
塔雷伯和 Spitznagel 26 日在 Medium 發文稱,許多人說,疫情是黑天鵝事件,出乎意
料且難以防範,要是這些人真的看了書,就會知道全球大流行病是「白天鵝」,是發生機
率很高的事件,現代社會結構下,嚴峻的大流行病無可避免。
許多行業要求紓困,2008~2009 年的全球金融海嘯是前車之鑑,當時的美國財長蓋特納(
Timothy Geithner)對抗國會和部分官員,全力替銀行家護航。結果虧掉了銀行史上全數
獲利的銀行家,不到 2 年就拿到空前紅利。蓋特納卸任後幾年,轉往金融業領取優渥高
薪。
這是明目張膽的「企業社會主義」(corporate socialism),好處產業拿走,經理人背
後有納稅人撐腰。換句話說,企業人士留住利潤、虧損轉嫁給納稅人。其間的不平衡創造
出道德風險(moral hazard),就像丟銅板丟到正面,銀行家贏;但是丟到反面,不是銀
行家輸,而是納稅人輸。這還沒算進去量化寬鬆(QE)膨脹資產價值,加劇貧富不均。別
忘了紓困資金來自印鈔,相對於紐約超豪華公寓的資產價值,中產階級薪水將遭壓縮。
他們支持拯救航空業等行業,但是這不等於補貼企業股東和口袋飽飽的經理人,製造更多
道德風險。拯救航空業是因為航空是公用事業、是必需品,但是企業經理人不是。2006
年起,他們就大力呼籲企業應該建立緩衝以備不時之需。為什麼要替大買庫藏股的公司紓
困?這些公司砸錢買自家股票,卻不願留錢應急。替此種企業紓困,等於教訓作風保守的
公司。
美企狂買庫藏股 大難當頭喊沒錢
華爾街日報、Barron’s 22 日報導,許多行業叫窮,要求政府紓困。但是倘若這些行業
把購買庫藏股的錢,用來提高職員薪資、或留作儲備現金,現在情況會好上許多。左派智
庫羅斯福研究所(Roosevelt Institute)經濟學家 Lenore Palladino 估計,
2015~2019 年,美國 3 大航空業者逾 50% 淨利用於購買庫藏股。飯店業更誇張,希爾頓
酒店集團(Hilton Worldwide)有 93% 淨利用於庫藏股、Hyatt Hotels Corp 有 137%
淨利用於庫藏股,Marriott International 更有 182% 淨利用於庫藏股。
波音也要求政府援助,麻州大學洛厄爾分校(University of Massachusetts Lowell)經
濟學家 William Lazonick 去年論文指出,2013~2019 年波音撥款 431 億美元購買庫藏
股,打壓該公司的安全開支,也超過該公司的此一時期的獲利。
Barron’s、金融時報、衛報 23 日報導,許多企業在牛市時大發股息、狂買庫藏股,等
到真的需要資金時,無錢可用。美企灑錢的情況有多誇張?目前美國政府的疫情援助方案
,規模約 2 兆美元。2017~2019 年,標普 500 企業豪擲逾 2 兆美元回購庫藏股;2019
年美企的股息發放率大增 4.7% 達 4.91 億美元,總額創空前新高。
--
沒事亞當斯密,有事凱因斯
美國企業:有本事放著我倒啊,賭你不敢啦!
--
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