關於蒙地卡羅退休提領模擬的疑問 - 理財

By Dorothy
at 2023-03-22T14:48
at 2023-03-22T14:48
Table of Contents
大家好,小弟在跑退休模擬的時候,有點疑問
我的退休提領參數設定 [提領率3%]
https://myppt.cc/ZGO6E
我的資產配置[股25% 債70% 現金5%]
股:VTI 15% VWO 5% VEA 5%
債:TLT 35% IEF 35%
現金:CASHX 5%
2020年的時候,用以上參數跑退休模擬,成功率超過95%以上
https://myppt.cc/Sp0BO
2023年,今天再跑一次退休模擬,參數照舊,但成功率卻慘不忍睹
https://myppt.cc/KbLUG
請問這樣的結果,是因為高通膨及股債雙跌所造成的嗎?
但2020年跑的蒙地卡羅模擬,難不成沒有模擬到類似情況嗎?
這樣模擬可信度是不是不高,不太了解細節,所以想請教大家的看法
謝謝各位。
補上網址:https://myppt.cc/MHNQx
--
我的退休提領參數設定 [提領率3%]
https://myppt.cc/ZGO6E
我的資產配置[股25% 債70% 現金5%]
股:VTI 15% VWO 5% VEA 5%
債:TLT 35% IEF 35%
現金:CASHX 5%
2020年的時候,用以上參數跑退休模擬,成功率超過95%以上
https://myppt.cc/Sp0BO
2023年,今天再跑一次退休模擬,參數照舊,但成功率卻慘不忍睹
https://myppt.cc/KbLUG
請問這樣的結果,是因為高通膨及股債雙跌所造成的嗎?
但2020年跑的蒙地卡羅模擬,難不成沒有模擬到類似情況嗎?
這樣模擬可信度是不是不高,不太了解細節,所以想請教大家的看法
謝謝各位。
補上網址:https://myppt.cc/MHNQx
--
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理財
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