還在ETF買天下?大賣空主角:被動投資泡 - 股票
By Hedwig
at 2019-09-06T10:04
at 2019-09-06T10:04
Table of Contents
還在ETF買天下?大賣空主角:被動投資泡沫化 宛如次貸風暴!
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4376706
鉅亨網編譯許家華
電影《大賣空》主角、知名價值型投資人 Michael Burry 是首批發現次貸風暴即將爆發
的投資者,這回他在被動投資中又看到類似的泡沫了!
Burry 表示,被動投資例如指數型基金和 ETF 這一類的被動投資正讓股票和債券的價格
膨脹,其方式類似 10 年前次貸風暴,當大規模資金流向被動工具的趨勢被扭轉後,「狀
況會很難看。」
Burry 說道:「像大多數泡沫一樣,泡沫持續時間越長,最後破滅的慘狀就越嚴重。這非
常類似大金融危機之前合成資產支撐的 CDO 泡沫,因為該市場的定價不是靠基本的安全
級別分析,而是靠諾貝爾批准的風險模型之大規模資本流動,而這已證明並不真實。」
低成本的被動投資工具一直是大眾市場的寵兒,根據美銀美林統計,目前股市上有近半數
被動投資,因為越來越多投資者不想選股,乾脆擁抱指數型基金。
晨星數據顯示,十年不到的時間內,股權被動基金已經膨脹至 3 兆美元以上,這些基金
幾乎可以反映出一切追蹤的事情,S&P 500 或 Russell 2000 均包含在內。
Burry 指出:「全球數兆美元資產都與這些股票的指數掛勾,就像是越來越擁擠的電影院
,但逃生出口卻依舊那樣小,當全球股債市流動性降低的時候,這一切會變得更糟。」
無獨有偶,許多知名投資者也都對被動投資發出了警告。有新債王之稱的 DoubleLine
Capital 執行長岡拉克 (Jeffrey Gundlach) 先前將被動投資比喻成「放牧行為」,稱這
種投資方式已達「狂熱狀態」,「在全球市場已經引發了廣泛問題。」
3.心得/評論:
近幾年全球市場和台灣ETF投資大行其道,看準無腦方便不會倒,但......
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