選舉倒數 花旗看多台股 - 股票

By Isla
at 2018-11-14T08:41
at 2018-11-14T08:41
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
※過長無法點擊者必須縮網址
https://udn.com/news/story/7251/3479134
2.原文內容:
台股昨(13)日早盤大跌200點,終場收斂跌55點,彈力十足,「台灣先生」花旗環球證
券台灣區研究部主管谷月涵對台灣政經局勢、九合一選舉表達看法,並重申台股偏多;不
過也有保守外資認為,美中貿易戰還沒打完,加上A股權重可能調升,台股仍要提防壓力
。
MSCI(明晟)將在今天宣布最新季度權重,先前傳出MSCI有意調高A股權重至20%,且可能
在2019年生效;最快公布時間落在今天。
經濟日報/提供
經濟日報/提供
谷月涵昨日對台灣政經局勢發表看法,是外資圈今年第一篇有談論台灣九合一選舉結果與
政經局勢變化的報告。以往會觸及台灣選舉結果的外資報告,還有里昂證券。
他指出,今年九合一大選,台灣藍綠兩極化的政治生態轉變,台北市長候選人柯文哲及高
雄市長候選人韓國瑜,為非典型、非傳統的另類政治人物,正帶動台灣政治轉型。
花旗看重兩岸關係轉變對經濟、股市的效應,現階段仍保持今年以來對台股偏多看法,事
實上,美中先前熱烈「你來我往」強打貿易戰,谷月涵即預期台股低檔展韌性,但他也呼
籲留意新台幣趨貶、獲利下修兩大資金拉力。
花旗對台股目標指數設定12,000點,是外資券商最高,不久前瑞銀因貿易戰下修台股目標
、由11,000點降到10,500點,滙豐降至10,880點,摩根士丹利則估11,500點(熊市情境10
,500點、牛市12,500點),高盛重申11,800點。
大多數外資維持萬點以上看法,主要基於明年台灣實質經濟(GDP)持續成長、通膨溫和
走升、企業獲利處於高檔等基本面條件綜合評估。
值得注意的是,外資券商在報告中,也提醒多點風險,除美中貿易戰、企業獲利成長幅度
下調等,分析師也高度關注iPhone買氣不振,如高盛資金流向報告點名,台灣蘋概股近期
修正特別劇烈,居亞股所有產業最大;摩根士丹利、滙豐則關注A股權重拉升衝擊,尤其
美國加速升息下,陸美股帶來不可逆的排擠效應恐高於預期,建議風險適度分散。
3.心得/評論:
大師出手了 以下開放多多搶廁所
https://i.imgur.com/MAmRI27.jpg
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