追高殺低長期能賺錢嗎? - 股票

Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2018-01-01T22:17

Table of Contents

https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp2004AIMRefficientMrkts.html
直接看BOGLE說了啥好了

But the EMH may well prove less important in investment theory than a new
wisdom that is beginning to emerge. I call it the CMH: The Cost Matters
Hypothesis. Like the EMH before it, the CMH posits a conclusion that is both
trivially obvious and remarkably sweeping: The mathematical expectation of
the speculator is a loss equal to the amount of transaction costs incurred.
When he concluded otherwise, that “the mathematical expectation of the
speculator is zero,” Bachelier was wrong.

So, too, the mathematical expectation of the long-term investor is a
shortfall to the stock market’s return, a shortfall that is precisely equal
to the costs of our system of financial intermediation—the sum total of all
those advisory fees, marketing expenditures, sales loads, brokerage
commissions, transaction costs, custody and legal fees, and securities
processing expenses. Intermediation costs in the U.S. equity market may well
total as much as $300 billion a year, nearly 3% of the value of that $12
trillion market.

http://time.com/money/3956351/jack-bogle-index-fund/

Q: What about the benefits of diversification or the idea that going abroad
can lower overall risk because markets aren’t correlated?

A: Diversification is certainly true, but noncorrelation is bunk. It’s
applying higher mathematics to something I don’t think requires it. We’ve
overanalyzed the whole thing. I’m always the apostle of simplicity and lower
costs.

不管市場有沒有效率,投資人「整體」得到的報酬就是市場報酬,
成本最低的投資人會打敗大部份的投資人,市值加權先天周轉率比其他方式低,就這樣。

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Tags: 股票

All Comments

Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2018-01-03T09:01
沒錯 就是「低成本」跟「整體」創造的效益
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2018-01-07T14:10
壓低成本就對了,當某檔股票以技術面來觀察,已經
跌無可跌,大家都不想賣,成交量低迷時,進場,剩
下就只需要考慮賺多少要賣了!
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2018-01-09T23:46
剩下要考慮的是還有沒有起死回生的可能...錢閒置也
是價值
Tom avatar
By Tom
at 2018-01-13T22:38
如果是用閒錢投資,又何必急?
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2018-01-17T15:18
不是急不急的問題,是期望值的問題
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2018-01-17T23:49
你就不要押寶到垃圾 呵
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2018-01-21T12:46
定力不夠的人,想買這種股票,不要來板上問,大家一定
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2018-01-25T21:24
叫你不要買,因為基本(消息)面太差了 XD
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2018-01-30T05:00
你不知道,我就是專靠撿垃圾股翻倍賺錢的XD
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2018-02-03T07:25
剛好我大部分又還能判斷垃圾什麼時候要開始變黃金
,所以其實也不會等太久啦
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2018-02-07T03:16
重點是怎麼判斷不是垃圾
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2018-02-09T11:47
讚讚讚

追高殺低長期能賺錢嗎?

Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2018-01-01T21:30
很多人愛推「本多終勝」 試問今天給你 30 ~ 50 億,在座有誰能保證賺錢的? 自己花了近億將某檔股票拉了 5% ,馬上不知名大單壓了下來你有辦法承受嗎? 或是空頭大逃竄時,自己庫存根本出不完 還是其實本多終勝有某種不為人知的套利模式? - ...

4535 至興

Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2018-01-01T21:12
1. 標的: 4535 至興 2. 分類:多/空/請益/心得 多 3. 分析/正文: 目前股價在低檔 也在可以存的價 (五年平均看約 5%) 汽機車沖壓件大廠 今年受美國客戶調節庫存及台幣強勢影響 營收略減 不過它真的很優秀 近五年營益率一年一年穩定上升 從 ...

追高殺低長期能賺錢嗎?

Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2018-01-01T20:34
好啦~還是直接進入想討論的正題吧 直接說結論 推文中有些高手也看出來了 其實我就是在講0050這些and#34;指數追蹤型ETFand#34; 我想討論的是 指數追蹤型ETF並非如某些人所說的是and#34;被動式投資and#34; 它的本質其實是and#34;主動式擇時進出動能交易系統and#34; ...

CHL 多

Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2018-01-01T18:33
1. 標的: CHL 中國移動 2. 分類:多 3. 分析/正文: 去年12月跌破50塊殺到3年半低點48.9 近月來股價由谷底反彈突破50來到50.5 近3年來1月都是上漲 且有不小漲幅 50塊以下都是很值得投入的買點 約有3.5%左右的殖利率 ...

6223 旺矽 多

Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2018-01-01T16:53
1. 標的: 6223 旺矽 2. 分類:多 3. 分析/正文: 從去年5月一路下殺到12月初63塊低點的半導體測試廠 上個月股價已由波段新低往上爬升約7%左右 已有穩住下殺趨勢並往上回拉 去年營收雖不見理想呈現衰退 股價下滑可以想見 但目前已見 ...