辛苦一輩子 或是 辛苦一陣子 - 投資
By Tracy
at 2009-04-05T00:13
at 2009-04-05T00:13
Table of Contents
※ 引述《UltraSeven (@@)》之銘言:
: 我的方法也很簡單
: 台指期連續月
: 突破20日均線上買進作多
: 跌破20日均線賣出作空
: 就這樣... 最基本中的基本技術分析
: 而且我只用27萬作一口小台指
: 跟你賭100元 十年後看誰報酬率高 = =
: 其實看回測就知道你輸定了...
: 除非剛好十年後 加權指數站上2萬點 不然你是輸定了
: 你那個不叫投資
: 你那個叫把錢丟到水裡...
: 我建議你何不先去做做看回測
: 如果過去這樣作不會賺錢
: 你怎麼知道未來會賺錢????
不用回測..
台灣50的本益比本來就是公開的資料
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/ju168/14649634
這個部落格就有分析從92~96年台灣50的最低和最高比益比
(當年度最低/最高股價 / EPS)..
約介於10~20之間..
所以長期購買台灣50(10年的話有120張)預期可在10~20之間
換算報酬率是在5~10%左右..
(這也接近世界各國股市的平均年報酬率)
但是這是不把每年的現金股利再投入股市的獲利..
也就是少掉了複利的作用..
(這也是讓你賺到的地方)
而且120張平均定期購入的台灣50會讓購入成本介於這10年的平均值..
(台灣50和台股大盤的連動性很高)..
所以我也不用擔心10年後台股要到2萬點..
只要10年後台股在10年平均值之上我就有賺到股價差..
還有..這種簡單無腦的操作策略還可以讓我空出大把時間去充實自己的腦袋和休閒生活..
不需要花時間去傷腦筋股市漲跌問題..
--
: 我的方法也很簡單
: 台指期連續月
: 突破20日均線上買進作多
: 跌破20日均線賣出作空
: 就這樣... 最基本中的基本技術分析
: 而且我只用27萬作一口小台指
: 跟你賭100元 十年後看誰報酬率高 = =
: 其實看回測就知道你輸定了...
: 除非剛好十年後 加權指數站上2萬點 不然你是輸定了
: 你那個不叫投資
: 你那個叫把錢丟到水裡...
: 我建議你何不先去做做看回測
: 如果過去這樣作不會賺錢
: 你怎麼知道未來會賺錢????
不用回測..
台灣50的本益比本來就是公開的資料
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/ju168/14649634
這個部落格就有分析從92~96年台灣50的最低和最高比益比
(當年度最低/最高股價 / EPS)..
約介於10~20之間..
所以長期購買台灣50(10年的話有120張)預期可在10~20之間
換算報酬率是在5~10%左右..
(這也接近世界各國股市的平均年報酬率)
但是這是不把每年的現金股利再投入股市的獲利..
也就是少掉了複利的作用..
(這也是讓你賺到的地方)
而且120張平均定期購入的台灣50會讓購入成本介於這10年的平均值..
(台灣50和台股大盤的連動性很高)..
所以我也不用擔心10年後台股要到2萬點..
只要10年後台股在10年平均值之上我就有賺到股價差..
還有..這種簡單無腦的操作策略還可以讓我空出大把時間去充實自己的腦袋和休閒生活..
不需要花時間去傷腦筋股市漲跌問題..
--
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