謝金河:臺灣錢淹腳目又有影了! - 股票
By Rebecca
at 2020-05-10T09:08
at 2020-05-10T09:08
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:
https://udn.com/news/story/6851/4546033
2.原文內容:
關鍵時刻,你如何抉擇?
從元月23日武漢宣布封城,從中國大陸傳出來的疫情席捲全世界,迄今未休;全球經濟遭
受到前所未見的巨大撞擊,金融市場動盪更是前所未有。這四個月大家所經歷的都是百年
一遇,像是恐慌指數到84.83,油價期油變成負40.32,道瓊工業指數大跌11354點,且熔
斷多次......所有經濟學家對經濟前景的預測都是無與倫比的慘烈。
在大家驚慌的時候,我喜歡看比較不一樣的觀點,這其中,在3月11日工商時報A3版出現
了一篇國泰投信董事長張錫的看法,他說台股會再旺十年,這當中,全球低息及台股高殖
利率是最大靠山!3月11日這一天,道瓊工業指數大跌1464.94,第二天再跌2352.62,美
國股市排山倒海崩跌而下,到16日重挫2997.1......當全世界信心崩潰之際,張錫說出台股
會再旺十年,這確實要有很大的勇氣。而同一時間,我的先探投資週刊老同事杜先生也不
斷傳他精研的技術分析研判,他的A波,B波,C波的波浪跌勢令人怵目驚心......
那個時候,我有幾個核心想法,一是恐慌指數到3月16日的84.83,如果繼續飆高,這個世
界不妙,現在恐慌指數已經跌到27.98,恐慌情緒顯著降溫。二是盯緊油價,油價才是經
濟活動最敏感的指標,這次石油期貨殺到負值,已是壓力測試的極至,現在WTI回到24.63
美元,已有否極之勢。三是美元指數,我用一個高點來觀察,川普當選後,美元指數升至
103.82,這次美元指數升高到102.992,如果突破103.82,這個世界就可能拉警報,現在
美元指數回到100以下,世界的危機沒有進一步惡化。
這是三個基本點,很多人問我,美國道瓊工業指數會跌到哪裡?我說川普當選的當天,道
瓊工業指數18322.76是川普的馬其諾防線,川普一定力守,美國使盡渾身解數,這次道瓊
工業指數跌至18213.65,果然印證了我的看法。
現在大家一定要注意,代表美國科技股的Nasdaq及Nasdaq100都已經把今年的跌幅全部回
收,Nasdaq100今年上漲5.58%,大家看到Apple,Amazon,Microsoft,Google及FB又繼續
奔馳......這一次各國把資金水閘門全打開,利率降至貼近零,各種紓困措施無所不用其極
,這個世界一定會發生大家從來沒有見過的巨大變化,台灣這兩年的蛻變,很可能是全球
最精彩的市場!這次口罩股,所有防疫概念股的飆漲,簡直就是30年前台灣錢淹腳目的翻
版,台股的高殖利率,遇到資金大洪水,可能一發不可收拾!今年外資把台股當提款機,
賣超逾五千億元,但新台幣不貶反升,原來藏在外面的錢又跑回來了......最近南港土地高
價標出,土地交易量頻創新高,資金大潮正應運而生。這次台灣防疫有成,台灣能見度大
增,台灣與台股的氣運會出乎大家意料!
3.心得/評論:
謝老開示,美國高科技股幾乎都收復跌幅,而且川普接下來要選舉,股市不可能跌倒哪裡
去;而台股因為防疫有成、游資泛濫及高殖利率優勢,在這波降息撒錢行情下至少可以再
旺個十年,你們還不快歐硬做多?
--
https://udn.com/news/story/6851/4546033
2.原文內容:
關鍵時刻,你如何抉擇?
從元月23日武漢宣布封城,從中國大陸傳出來的疫情席捲全世界,迄今未休;全球經濟遭
受到前所未見的巨大撞擊,金融市場動盪更是前所未有。這四個月大家所經歷的都是百年
一遇,像是恐慌指數到84.83,油價期油變成負40.32,道瓊工業指數大跌11354點,且熔
斷多次......所有經濟學家對經濟前景的預測都是無與倫比的慘烈。
在大家驚慌的時候,我喜歡看比較不一樣的觀點,這其中,在3月11日工商時報A3版出現
了一篇國泰投信董事長張錫的看法,他說台股會再旺十年,這當中,全球低息及台股高殖
利率是最大靠山!3月11日這一天,道瓊工業指數大跌1464.94,第二天再跌2352.62,美
國股市排山倒海崩跌而下,到16日重挫2997.1......當全世界信心崩潰之際,張錫說出台股
會再旺十年,這確實要有很大的勇氣。而同一時間,我的先探投資週刊老同事杜先生也不
斷傳他精研的技術分析研判,他的A波,B波,C波的波浪跌勢令人怵目驚心......
那個時候,我有幾個核心想法,一是恐慌指數到3月16日的84.83,如果繼續飆高,這個世
界不妙,現在恐慌指數已經跌到27.98,恐慌情緒顯著降溫。二是盯緊油價,油價才是經
濟活動最敏感的指標,這次石油期貨殺到負值,已是壓力測試的極至,現在WTI回到24.63
美元,已有否極之勢。三是美元指數,我用一個高點來觀察,川普當選後,美元指數升至
103.82,這次美元指數升高到102.992,如果突破103.82,這個世界就可能拉警報,現在
美元指數回到100以下,世界的危機沒有進一步惡化。
這是三個基本點,很多人問我,美國道瓊工業指數會跌到哪裡?我說川普當選的當天,道
瓊工業指數18322.76是川普的馬其諾防線,川普一定力守,美國使盡渾身解數,這次道瓊
工業指數跌至18213.65,果然印證了我的看法。
現在大家一定要注意,代表美國科技股的Nasdaq及Nasdaq100都已經把今年的跌幅全部回
收,Nasdaq100今年上漲5.58%,大家看到Apple,Amazon,Microsoft,Google及FB又繼續
奔馳......這一次各國把資金水閘門全打開,利率降至貼近零,各種紓困措施無所不用其極
,這個世界一定會發生大家從來沒有見過的巨大變化,台灣這兩年的蛻變,很可能是全球
最精彩的市場!這次口罩股,所有防疫概念股的飆漲,簡直就是30年前台灣錢淹腳目的翻
版,台股的高殖利率,遇到資金大洪水,可能一發不可收拾!今年外資把台股當提款機,
賣超逾五千億元,但新台幣不貶反升,原來藏在外面的錢又跑回來了......最近南港土地高
價標出,土地交易量頻創新高,資金大潮正應運而生。這次台灣防疫有成,台灣能見度大
增,台灣與台股的氣運會出乎大家意料!
3.心得/評論:
謝老開示,美國高科技股幾乎都收復跌幅,而且川普接下來要選舉,股市不可能跌倒哪裡
去;而台股因為防疫有成、游資泛濫及高殖利率優勢,在這波降息撒錢行情下至少可以再
旺個十年,你們還不快歐硬做多?
--
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股票
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