請給我投資策略的建議 - 理財

By Christine
at 2019-05-08T23:11
at 2019-05-08T23:11
Table of Contents
抱歉不太確定這主題是否適合放這版,但那個CFP 理財規劃顧問版好像談保險的比例偏高。
我基本上先做大的資產配置,再決定投資組合與標的。除自住外沒有不動產,所以都是流動資產 (不看好台灣不動產的未來)。
理財目的是希望這輩子能夠順利走完,不用把房子賣掉籌措養老金。目前房貸還約200萬,因為房貸利率很低,所以不提前還款而是拿來投資理財。
目前的配置分三大塊:
1. 中高風險:國內外股票、ETF、含原物料。主要投資 VTI, VEA, VWO, BRK.B 與 NVDA
2. 低風險與固定收益: 債券基金、儲蓄險、保本組合式商品
3. 活存,定存含台幣外幣
1 的占比目前不超過4成,2約35%。其餘是3,應該算保守投資族。3 除了生活預備外,主要是用來做投資預備金。保險只買死亡險,定期險,不回本的醫療險。我把保險視為純消費支出。少數儲蓄險則就是當作利率稍高的類定存而已。
若以資產的幣別來看,美元資產最多,其次才是台幣資產,其餘占比都不高。不過也有點擔心強勢美元是否接近頂點了。
我理財也超過20年,但海嘯前的平均績效一直不太好,大約只比不賠好一點點而已。一直沒能好好掌握自己的總投資績效可能是問題之一,所以自去年底開始用 XIRR 計算自己的投資績效。我發覺隨時(每月)掌握自己的總投資平均績效,對投資比較有感覺。
前一段時間也在台股玩當沖,尤其穩懋與欣興。但玩了一段時間,發現實際上幾乎是運氣決定輸贏,所以現在比較不想玩。乖乖投資持有,報酬率反而比較好。
2008金融海嘯那波我損失不小,分散配置主動式基金但投資組合全倒。後來看到綠角宣揚ETF覺得不錯,所以減少主動投資,在 ETF 與(類)定存配置一定比例,十年來發現持有債券ETF沒什麼績效,還不如持有現金或儲蓄險這種類定存,流動性也較好。
我雖看綠角的理念,但實際操作不嚴謹,雖分成幾塊,但債券少股票多。而且我比較照市值配置,所以美股比重最高,歐日澳股其次、新興市場若不計中台其實比重不高。可惜的是台股與陸股比重從整體來看有點偏高,尤其是台股,但應該無可厚非,畢竟是本幣資產,操作與轉換比較方便。此外,也沒認真地照比例分配,或再平衡。但大體來說幾大區塊都有就是。
名嘴的廣播偶爾聽,但發現他們報的明牌不能信,投入常常只是幫忙抬轎或被套牢,所以現在很怕聽到報明牌的。也曾看過工商還是經濟日報的投資競賽,找幾位基金經理人每週配置基金,半年下來好像也難以打敗大盤,應該也很沒面子。
但有的人操作股票或期貨投報率很好,但他們的年化報酬率好像沒把定存等預備金一起計算。我覺得需要將可拿來投資的資金全部計算才合理,尤其不能只算賺錢的投資項目。把預備資金也計入算總投報率,其實會拉低不少的。但我知道還是有人很厲害,一年平均可賺幾十%(但不知是積極部位還是全部)。但有些人賺錢會說,賠的時候都不講。所以我一直不知操作的好的話,年平均總報酬率(含定存部位)可到多少?
目前我有用約 2成資金買股票,畢竟人性好賭也不願服輸,小玩一些也有樂趣。但就是不知對總回報到底有多少幫助,可能還要詳細分析才知。
我覺得我的問題之一是投資標的種類多但金額少,每項最多幾十萬,少則幾萬,管理成本不低,但又不敢真的把標的減少到十檔左右,因擔心不夠分散,也看不準。
現在只希望中美貿易戰不要破局,害我的投資一下子少了幾成,那就真的別想退休了。
最近三不五時收到財經M平方的廣告,內容雖也有興趣,但又得繳會費所以一直觀望。股友社也是歷久彌新,可見靠真本領投資真的不容易,靠一張嘴收會員費比較好賺。
各位投資高手前輩若不嫌棄能略為指點一二,小弟萬分感激。
--
我基本上先做大的資產配置,再決定投資組合與標的。除自住外沒有不動產,所以都是流動資產 (不看好台灣不動產的未來)。
理財目的是希望這輩子能夠順利走完,不用把房子賣掉籌措養老金。目前房貸還約200萬,因為房貸利率很低,所以不提前還款而是拿來投資理財。
目前的配置分三大塊:
1. 中高風險:國內外股票、ETF、含原物料。主要投資 VTI, VEA, VWO, BRK.B 與 NVDA
2. 低風險與固定收益: 債券基金、儲蓄險、保本組合式商品
3. 活存,定存含台幣外幣
1 的占比目前不超過4成,2約35%。其餘是3,應該算保守投資族。3 除了生活預備外,主要是用來做投資預備金。保險只買死亡險,定期險,不回本的醫療險。我把保險視為純消費支出。少數儲蓄險則就是當作利率稍高的類定存而已。
若以資產的幣別來看,美元資產最多,其次才是台幣資產,其餘占比都不高。不過也有點擔心強勢美元是否接近頂點了。
我理財也超過20年,但海嘯前的平均績效一直不太好,大約只比不賠好一點點而已。一直沒能好好掌握自己的總投資績效可能是問題之一,所以自去年底開始用 XIRR 計算自己的投資績效。我發覺隨時(每月)掌握自己的總投資平均績效,對投資比較有感覺。
前一段時間也在台股玩當沖,尤其穩懋與欣興。但玩了一段時間,發現實際上幾乎是運氣決定輸贏,所以現在比較不想玩。乖乖投資持有,報酬率反而比較好。
2008金融海嘯那波我損失不小,分散配置主動式基金但投資組合全倒。後來看到綠角宣揚ETF覺得不錯,所以減少主動投資,在 ETF 與(類)定存配置一定比例,十年來發現持有債券ETF沒什麼績效,還不如持有現金或儲蓄險這種類定存,流動性也較好。
我雖看綠角的理念,但實際操作不嚴謹,雖分成幾塊,但債券少股票多。而且我比較照市值配置,所以美股比重最高,歐日澳股其次、新興市場若不計中台其實比重不高。可惜的是台股與陸股比重從整體來看有點偏高,尤其是台股,但應該無可厚非,畢竟是本幣資產,操作與轉換比較方便。此外,也沒認真地照比例分配,或再平衡。但大體來說幾大區塊都有就是。
名嘴的廣播偶爾聽,但發現他們報的明牌不能信,投入常常只是幫忙抬轎或被套牢,所以現在很怕聽到報明牌的。也曾看過工商還是經濟日報的投資競賽,找幾位基金經理人每週配置基金,半年下來好像也難以打敗大盤,應該也很沒面子。
但有的人操作股票或期貨投報率很好,但他們的年化報酬率好像沒把定存等預備金一起計算。我覺得需要將可拿來投資的資金全部計算才合理,尤其不能只算賺錢的投資項目。把預備資金也計入算總投報率,其實會拉低不少的。但我知道還是有人很厲害,一年平均可賺幾十%(但不知是積極部位還是全部)。但有些人賺錢會說,賠的時候都不講。所以我一直不知操作的好的話,年平均總報酬率(含定存部位)可到多少?
目前我有用約 2成資金買股票,畢竟人性好賭也不願服輸,小玩一些也有樂趣。但就是不知對總回報到底有多少幫助,可能還要詳細分析才知。
我覺得我的問題之一是投資標的種類多但金額少,每項最多幾十萬,少則幾萬,管理成本不低,但又不敢真的把標的減少到十檔左右,因擔心不夠分散,也看不準。
現在只希望中美貿易戰不要破局,害我的投資一下子少了幾成,那就真的別想退休了。
最近三不五時收到財經M平方的廣告,內容雖也有興趣,但又得繳會費所以一直觀望。股友社也是歷久彌新,可見靠真本領投資真的不容易,靠一張嘴收會員費比較好賺。
各位投資高手前輩若不嫌棄能略為指點一二,小弟萬分感激。
--
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