誰是拜登概念股? - 投資
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By Zora
at 2020-11-23T10:59
at 2020-11-23T10:59
Table of Contents
1.原文連結:https://bit.ly/3lsJEhL
2.內容:
儘管川普陣營表示將提起重新計票申請與法律訴訟,但成功翻盤機率低,拜登幾乎可確定
贏得美國總統大選。拜登政見涉及氣候變遷、乾淨能源與基礎建設等重大議題,施政重點
與過往四年可能有天壤之別,哪些類股將從中受益?誰又是拜登概念股?
1. 加稅、財富稅等法案都難以通過
https://imgur.com/0tmjeu1
拜登政見包含縮小貧富差距、發展乾淨能源與大規模基礎建設,而無論是其中的調升高收
入者所得稅率,或是更高的財政支出與刺激法案,都必須透過立法部門才能達成。儘管民
主黨掌控眾議院,可自行提出相關撥款法案,或是通過白宮版本的預算案。但在共和黨繼
續主導參議院的情形下,共和黨不愛的大規模財政刺激或是稅改都難以通過,參議院勢必
會退回或是推出自身修訂後的版本。
2. 乾淨能源、環保題材產業最受惠
川普 2017 年剛上任時,共和黨同時掌控白宮與參眾兩院,但大規模基礎建設法案仍無法
順利出爐。如今民主黨只掌握白宮與眾議院,此類法案要過關機率更低,不須經過國會同
意的行政命令便成為拜登政府的利器。由於美國憲法對於行政命令的限制很模糊,基本上
只要內容不要過分侵犯到正式法律或憲法,國會或最高法院很少會推翻總統的行政命令。
因此拜登政府完全可透過行政命令的方式,督促各部會將乾淨能源、環境保護等議題列入
優先考慮因素,在常規預算的使用上,依然能間接幫助相關產業發展。
3. 民主黨政府跛腳時,美國成長與大型類股是贏家
https://imgur.com/ArchWME
從過 1978 年以來,民主黨分別於柯林頓與歐巴馬總統任內經歷過喪失國會主導權的時期
。而與想像中情況不同,理應降低施政效率的白宮與國會分治期間,股市表現反而異常亮
眼。美國成長類股與美國大型類股平均上漲 16.6% 與 15.4%,表現較落後的美國價值與
小型類股也都有超過 11% 的平均漲幅(考量到今年經濟環境特殊,未來價值與小型類股
表現可能遠優於歷史平均,詳細可參考疫苗報喜,類股領頭羊換人?)。
鉅亨投資策略
基金操作上,建議如下:
美股基金搭配永續投資王
新總統與分裂的國會,將降低政策不確定性,並有利美國股市表現。建議可以整體美國股
票型基金為核心,搭配更聚焦於永續投資商機的永續投資王。
-----
心得:
ESG類型的基金要被看好了嗎?
大部分的基金平台的優惠都到這個年底,我是覺得可以入手看看啦~
--
2.內容:
儘管川普陣營表示將提起重新計票申請與法律訴訟,但成功翻盤機率低,拜登幾乎可確定
贏得美國總統大選。拜登政見涉及氣候變遷、乾淨能源與基礎建設等重大議題,施政重點
與過往四年可能有天壤之別,哪些類股將從中受益?誰又是拜登概念股?
1. 加稅、財富稅等法案都難以通過
https://imgur.com/0tmjeu1
拜登政見包含縮小貧富差距、發展乾淨能源與大規模基礎建設,而無論是其中的調升高收
入者所得稅率,或是更高的財政支出與刺激法案,都必須透過立法部門才能達成。儘管民
主黨掌控眾議院,可自行提出相關撥款法案,或是通過白宮版本的預算案。但在共和黨繼
續主導參議院的情形下,共和黨不愛的大規模財政刺激或是稅改都難以通過,參議院勢必
會退回或是推出自身修訂後的版本。
2. 乾淨能源、環保題材產業最受惠
川普 2017 年剛上任時,共和黨同時掌控白宮與參眾兩院,但大規模基礎建設法案仍無法
順利出爐。如今民主黨只掌握白宮與眾議院,此類法案要過關機率更低,不須經過國會同
意的行政命令便成為拜登政府的利器。由於美國憲法對於行政命令的限制很模糊,基本上
只要內容不要過分侵犯到正式法律或憲法,國會或最高法院很少會推翻總統的行政命令。
因此拜登政府完全可透過行政命令的方式,督促各部會將乾淨能源、環境保護等議題列入
優先考慮因素,在常規預算的使用上,依然能間接幫助相關產業發展。
3. 民主黨政府跛腳時,美國成長與大型類股是贏家
https://imgur.com/ArchWME
從過 1978 年以來,民主黨分別於柯林頓與歐巴馬總統任內經歷過喪失國會主導權的時期
。而與想像中情況不同,理應降低施政效率的白宮與國會分治期間,股市表現反而異常亮
眼。美國成長類股與美國大型類股平均上漲 16.6% 與 15.4%,表現較落後的美國價值與
小型類股也都有超過 11% 的平均漲幅(考量到今年經濟環境特殊,未來價值與小型類股
表現可能遠優於歷史平均,詳細可參考疫苗報喜,類股領頭羊換人?)。
鉅亨投資策略
基金操作上,建議如下:
美股基金搭配永續投資王
新總統與分裂的國會,將降低政策不確定性,並有利美國股市表現。建議可以整體美國股
票型基金為核心,搭配更聚焦於永續投資商機的永續投資王。
-----
心得:
ESG類型的基金要被看好了嗎?
大部分的基金平台的優惠都到這個年底,我是覺得可以入手看看啦~
--
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