誰怕誰?王岐山:中國人吃草可以活一年 - 股票

By Catherine
at 2018-09-23T17:11
at 2018-09-23T17:11
Table of Contents
現在問題還是中國的仿冒和收買技術問題吧.
尤其現在你看產業創新越來越慢.
石油經濟下,人類能想到的創新都發展到一個規模.
也就是當年工業革命,20分要到60分當然進步很快.
現在是95分要進步到96分就要很久.
除非能源革命,才可能有大躍進的產業進化.
然後可怕的是,你創新超慢,但是抄襲模仿逆向工程超快.
你花20年研發的努力,對商業間諜來講,看個兩眼就抄了大半.
人家逆向工程可能一兩年就把你20年的努力直接全部破解然後大量複製.
也就是你本來領先的各種技術科技,放任中國抄襲的話.
他可能5年就可以追補你領先20年的差距....
就像,當年愛因斯坦講,世界上只有個位數的人懂相對論.
沒過幾十年,相對論變成物理課本上的教材...XD
學東西非常快,研發創新非常慢...
然後中國因為市場規模很大,外加企業很多背後都是有政府資金在操盤.
因此它們很容易透過規模化,大吃小等方式,把別人的技術吃下來.
其實你看鴻海買下夏普就是範例...
其實以前Bz直接買人家小型工作室也是類似的行為.
而美國真正害怕的是這個...
因為如果今天美國的技術.
不在領先中國,甚至不用說不在領先,你光追到只有5年的領先差距.
你美國人還想爽爽平均月薪6萬塊台幣就不可能了.
你只會人民薪資跟中國越來越近而已,你不下來就它們上去...
所以川普拚經貿大戰也要逼中國停止惡意併購,技術轉移,抄襲模仿.
保護美國的既有優勢.
不過畢竟美國是民主國家.
中國現在在賭大選.
民主國家的弱點就是選舉.
因為人民是愚蠢的,他們目光通常只有今天最多往後看三年.另外大腦都不太清楚.
另外,改變的時候,基本上損失的人比較多,得利的人很多還沒開始投資以外.
民主很容易發生,少數吃虧的喊很大聲,得利的都不講話,造成輿論風向很詭異...
因此透過各種手段去影響執政者的民調,就可以逼執政者妥協.
今天中國就是在賭這個.當然成敗要看下去才知道...
不過對中國來講,反正最後的退路就是,答應美國一開始的條件,讓經貿戰爭落幕.
現在中國還在撐...
--
尤其現在你看產業創新越來越慢.
石油經濟下,人類能想到的創新都發展到一個規模.
也就是當年工業革命,20分要到60分當然進步很快.
現在是95分要進步到96分就要很久.
除非能源革命,才可能有大躍進的產業進化.
然後可怕的是,你創新超慢,但是抄襲模仿逆向工程超快.
你花20年研發的努力,對商業間諜來講,看個兩眼就抄了大半.
人家逆向工程可能一兩年就把你20年的努力直接全部破解然後大量複製.
也就是你本來領先的各種技術科技,放任中國抄襲的話.
他可能5年就可以追補你領先20年的差距....
就像,當年愛因斯坦講,世界上只有個位數的人懂相對論.
沒過幾十年,相對論變成物理課本上的教材...XD
學東西非常快,研發創新非常慢...
然後中國因為市場規模很大,外加企業很多背後都是有政府資金在操盤.
因此它們很容易透過規模化,大吃小等方式,把別人的技術吃下來.
其實你看鴻海買下夏普就是範例...
其實以前Bz直接買人家小型工作室也是類似的行為.
而美國真正害怕的是這個...
因為如果今天美國的技術.
不在領先中國,甚至不用說不在領先,你光追到只有5年的領先差距.
你美國人還想爽爽平均月薪6萬塊台幣就不可能了.
你只會人民薪資跟中國越來越近而已,你不下來就它們上去...
所以川普拚經貿大戰也要逼中國停止惡意併購,技術轉移,抄襲模仿.
保護美國的既有優勢.
不過畢竟美國是民主國家.
中國現在在賭大選.
民主國家的弱點就是選舉.
因為人民是愚蠢的,他們目光通常只有今天最多往後看三年.另外大腦都不太清楚.
另外,改變的時候,基本上損失的人比較多,得利的人很多還沒開始投資以外.
民主很容易發生,少數吃虧的喊很大聲,得利的都不講話,造成輿論風向很詭異...
因此透過各種手段去影響執政者的民調,就可以逼執政者妥協.
今天中國就是在賭這個.當然成敗要看下去才知道...
不過對中國來講,反正最後的退路就是,答應美國一開始的條件,讓經貿戰爭落幕.
現在中國還在撐...
--
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