認真覺得FB、LINE的訂閱很搞笑 - 股票
By Emily
at 2019-01-20T23:16
at 2019-01-20T23:16
Table of Contents
加入了幾個FB社團討論區,裡面時常有老師或高手推薦
例如這周要鎖定哪幾隻 然後可能推薦個5隻這樣
也看了幾個FB、LINE 粉專網紅平日的推薦,明日看漲哪幾隻這樣
我是沒訂閱,但觀察了一陣子真的覺得這些人遲早被看破手腳
基本上我覺得 只要推薦超過1隻以上 2支是極限了 多了就很瞎
股票市場某方面也是零和遊戲 若單純用二分法
大數法則下 每天漲或跌的股票數長久下來會趨近於各50%
簡化來說 每天會有一半的股票漲 一半的股票跌
所以若你只推薦一支 這支明天漲的機率本來就有50%了
若推薦兩支 至少有一支漲的機率有 75%
推薦三支至少有一支漲的機遇快到90% 以此類推
常看到很多自稱高手的 一截圖下來推薦都10檔左右
這根本搞笑 其中只要有一支漲幅不錯 就可以拿來說嘴
那其他大多數跌的呢? 到時一定裝沒事忽略阿
重點是一般追蹤的散戶 推薦給你10檔 其中有1檔會大漲
但你要怎麼猜到是哪一檔? 你資金有這麼多每一檔都去壓?
希望大家能早點看破
--
例如這周要鎖定哪幾隻 然後可能推薦個5隻這樣
也看了幾個FB、LINE 粉專網紅平日的推薦,明日看漲哪幾隻這樣
我是沒訂閱,但觀察了一陣子真的覺得這些人遲早被看破手腳
基本上我覺得 只要推薦超過1隻以上 2支是極限了 多了就很瞎
股票市場某方面也是零和遊戲 若單純用二分法
大數法則下 每天漲或跌的股票數長久下來會趨近於各50%
簡化來說 每天會有一半的股票漲 一半的股票跌
所以若你只推薦一支 這支明天漲的機率本來就有50%了
若推薦兩支 至少有一支漲的機率有 75%
推薦三支至少有一支漲的機遇快到90% 以此類推
常看到很多自稱高手的 一截圖下來推薦都10檔左右
這根本搞笑 其中只要有一支漲幅不錯 就可以拿來說嘴
那其他大多數跌的呢? 到時一定裝沒事忽略阿
重點是一般追蹤的散戶 推薦給你10檔 其中有1檔會大漲
但你要怎麼猜到是哪一檔? 你資金有這麼多每一檔都去壓?
希望大家能早點看破
--
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