股市離崩盤不遠了 !? - 股票
By Victoria
at 2018-04-13T20:00
at 2018-04-13T20:00
Table of Contents
個人覺得是 短空 中多 長崩崩, 以下不專業分析、僅供參考
指數大概會盤跌好一陣子, 原因是投入股市的錢近來會慢慢 (?) 變少
首先是縮表, 每個月有 300E 美金從市場收回, 持續三年,
300E 大概是美股市值的 2.6/1000, 三年則共計佔美股市值的 9.36%
當然這 300E 不會全由股市提款, 但總資金變少、股市也難獨強
然後是升息, 升息本身會增加資金減少的速度 (還款利息增加),
總資金又再變少 (雖然只是回收到放款機構, 再看下一點),
另外升息也會影響講究資產配置、股債平衡的投資者的操作,
進一步促使資金由股市移往債市
這部份也是隨著每一次的升息會越來越明顯, 也會持續幾年,
最後是景氣擴張, 擴張就是會 加蓋工廠、造新船、增加產線、
加聘員工、採買更多的原物料、etc etc, 這些通通是同一件事情,
就是要花更多錢, 因此升息後放款機構多回收的錢,
比起流向股市, 會更容易流入實體經濟的投資
這部份是進行式, 可能已經跑一半以上了
實際上的確也可以觀察到很多公司近兩年負債及存貨都上升,
表示資金真的在流入那些公司
總結,
整個經濟環境中的總資金會持續減少, 而剩下的資金又因升息及景氣好,
會有很強的動力移往債市及實體經濟而非股市, 所以股市暫時是強不了
會崩崩嗎? 也不致於, 景氣還沒反轉, 利率還沒有很高,
加上川普天天亂喊, 忽多忽空, 使整個大局呈現極為不穩定的狀況,
不管要做多還是做空都讓人抖抖der, 這反而成為一種穩定的力量 XD
個人猜測, 隨著縮表及實體投資的增加, 股市會弱個好一陣子,
或許半年, 而在實體投資告一段落, 而且投資成效開始出來後,
會再回漲一波
至於怎麼判斷對實體經濟的投資告一段落呢?
或許可以觀察中下游製造/代工等公司
看它們投資現金流是不是開始降低 (廠房/設備就位完畢)
負債是不是開始降低 (之前的投資開始盈利回本) 當依據
崩崩大概是再更久之後, 一片榮景之下某個點平衡沒抓好就...
大概是這樣...吧?
※ 引述《LGG7 (LG-G7)》之銘言:
: 已經快要五年了
: 我這個奈米戶,現在滿手現金領定存1%,等台股崩盤,到底還要等多久?
: 居高要思維已經聽得太多,
: 什麼時候可以有5000點左右的機會,可以讓我進場?
: (我已經不奢求3500點)
: 大家怎麼看?在川普的努力之下,這1年有機會嗎?
--
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