聯電跌完沒?驚見外資目標價腰斬降評 - 股票QA
By Ina
at 2022-05-04T23:29
at 2022-05-04T23:29
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原文標題:聯電跌完沒?驚見外資目標價腰斬降評
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原文連結:https://wantrich.chinatimes.com/news/20220504900142-420101
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發布時間:07:32 2022-05-04
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記者署名:工商 簡威瑟
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原文內容:
半導體庫存修正討論如火如荼,滙豐證券最新加入論戰,直言現在已經不是「會否」進入
修正的問題,而是該關注何時開始、程度有多嚴重兩面向,降評二線晶圓代工股,尤其聯
電(2303)目標價腰斬,下探45元;在半導體族群中,唯一青睞龍頭台積電(2330)。
滙豐證券認為,美國聯準會(Fed)加速升息與通膨問題,導致總體經濟疑慮擴大,其次
,PC與智慧機等消費性電子產品需求出現放緩跡象,需求端浮現問題的嚴重性,超過半導
體產能2023年進一步成長的嚴重性,也可能導致半導體股下半年陷入修正。
考慮到來自需求面弱化的利空干擾,滙豐證券指出,半導體指標股去評價化(de-rating
)風險猶存,且尚未完全反應在股價上,市場對獲利預期有進一步下修風險,此時切勿急
著摸底。
滙豐強調,聯電下半年要再調漲單位售價的機率微乎其微,代表第二季可能就是毛利率頂
峰,隨後反轉機率大,研判聯電第二季後營運不易進一步走高,加以產業循環修正風險大
增,降評「中立」,股價預期由原本的95元高檔,一下攔腰砍到只剩45元,態度驟變。
外資以二情境估算聯電獲利表現,基本情境中,聯電2022、2023年每股純益分別是6.77與
5.48元,2023年獲利的衰退幅度直逼二成;不過,要是以單位售價下半年衰退、且2023年
更降至新冠肺炎前水準的悲觀情境估算,2022、2023年每股純益預估值恐再低至6.06與
4.12元。
心得/評論:聯電之前外資喊一百啊,八九十啊,結果殺到現在只剩40幾元,雖然聯電放久了
,領股利或許也不會賠,但是買在60以上的,真的套了一堆人,聯電未來的發展應該還是不錯
的,畢竟是台灣老字號的晶圓代工廠。
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