美股槓桿etf 抄底選擇qld or upro - ETF

By Heather
at 2022-10-02T14:31
at 2022-10-02T14:31
Table of Contents
目前考慮以下兩個抄底方案
第一個方案,美股的納斯達克100從高點跌35%就開始用兩倍槓桿qld分批抄到納指100的-5
0%左右的點位
第二個方案是,等到標普從高點跌30%,就啟動三倍槓桿upro分批接到-50%。
至於為何不選tqqq是因為tqqq波動還是大於這兩個,跌深要爬回去真的要花很久的時間。
而過去十多年二倍的qld報酬是贏過三倍的upro
https://i.imgur.com/Nd6jZbO.jpg
如下圖
https://i.imgur.com/rLU4Bq7.jpg
夏普比率越高,代表在同樣風險下能獲得的額外收益越高。
而過去十年qld的夏普比率是最高,代表波動率的年化標準差又是最小。
也就是說在這三組中qld承擔了較小的風險和較低波動,卻獲得相對較高的報酬。
如果光是這樣看,理論上應該選qld,但為何還是有在同時考慮upro?
因為
1.過去qld良好的表現只能當參考,不代表後續表現也是如此。
2.畢竟標普500的產業分散性和廣泛性還是高於納指,也有著比納指更長遠的真實歷史數
據可以參考。要說納指和標普哪個更有把握可以漲回前高,相信多數人還是認為是標普。
雖然納指也等於半個美股大盤了,標普漲回去,理論上納指也是會漲回去的。
分析下來目前我還是傾向買qld,各位怎麼看?
qld or upro?
當然有人會說兩個都買啦,但我是比較懶,想說選一個買就好。
另外,補充一下,不管買哪個,這批買槓桿etf的資金是可以長放的,至少可以放個3-5年
,甚至更久。因為拿5%資金買而已
--
第一個方案,美股的納斯達克100從高點跌35%就開始用兩倍槓桿qld分批抄到納指100的-5
0%左右的點位
第二個方案是,等到標普從高點跌30%,就啟動三倍槓桿upro分批接到-50%。
至於為何不選tqqq是因為tqqq波動還是大於這兩個,跌深要爬回去真的要花很久的時間。
而過去十多年二倍的qld報酬是贏過三倍的upro
https://i.imgur.com/Nd6jZbO.jpg

如下圖
https://i.imgur.com/rLU4Bq7.jpg

夏普比率越高,代表在同樣風險下能獲得的額外收益越高。
而過去十年qld的夏普比率是最高,代表波動率的年化標準差又是最小。
也就是說在這三組中qld承擔了較小的風險和較低波動,卻獲得相對較高的報酬。
如果光是這樣看,理論上應該選qld,但為何還是有在同時考慮upro?
因為
1.過去qld良好的表現只能當參考,不代表後續表現也是如此。
2.畢竟標普500的產業分散性和廣泛性還是高於納指,也有著比納指更長遠的真實歷史數
據可以參考。要說納指和標普哪個更有把握可以漲回前高,相信多數人還是認為是標普。
雖然納指也等於半個美股大盤了,標普漲回去,理論上納指也是會漲回去的。
分析下來目前我還是傾向買qld,各位怎麼看?
qld or upro?
當然有人會說兩個都買啦,但我是比較懶,想說選一個買就好。
另外,補充一下,不管買哪個,這批買槓桿etf的資金是可以長放的,至少可以放個3-5年
,甚至更久。因為拿5%資金買而已
--
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