美國聯準會預估美國失業率最高可能到32% - 股票

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1.原文連結：

https://cnb.cx/2UMUp2v

2.原文內容：
Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%,
Fed estimates

美國聯準會預估冠狀病毒可能導致美國失業人口達到4700萬，失業率到32%


Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus
crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal
Reserve estimate.

成千上萬的美國人失去他們的工作，但美國聯準會預估最壞的時刻可能還沒有來到

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment
reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate,
according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.

聯準會經濟學家根據最壞的分析預估就業人口可能減少4700萬，相當於32.1%的失業率。

The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s
much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs
that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed
at halting the coronavirus spread.

本次的預估比之前預估的30%還要糟，這反應因防疫措施所導致的失業率。

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather
unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the
last 100 years,” St. Louis Fed economist Miquel Faria-e-Castro wrote in a
research paper posted last week.

從上週的分析所得到的失業率是非常巨大的數字，在近100年內的美國歷史上都沒有出現過。


There are a couple of important caveats to what Faria-e-Castro calls “
back-of-the-envelope” calculations: They don’t account for workers who may
drop out of the labor force, thus bringing down the headline unemployment
rate, and they do not estimate the impact of recently passed government
stimulus, which will extend unemployment benefits and subsidize companies for
not cutting staff and extending unemployment benefits.

這個研究分析裡面有幾個需要注意的是，他們沒有計算到某些因其他原因不從事工作卻被算在失業人口的人
此外他們也沒有計算在上週政府通過的經濟振興方案，包含鼓勵公司不裁員等方式。

However, the jobless picture already looks bleak

即使如此，失業率仍然前景一片慘澹

A record 3.3 million Americans filed initial jobless claims for the week
ended March 21. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect another 2.65 million
to join them this week. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls count for March is
expected to show a decline of just 56,000, but that’s largely due to a
statistical distortion because of the sampling period for the count happening
before the government implementing social distancing practices.

在3月21日截止所統計的初次失業人口為330萬，本週預計會再新增265萬人失業人口。
本週五預計公布的非農就業人口預計會下降56000人，不過這個統計數據時間在
政府經濟振興方案施行之前，因此數據可能會失真。

The central part of Faria-e-Castro’s compilations comes from previous Fed
research showing 66.8 million workers in “occupations with high risk of
layoff.” They are sales, production, food preparation and services. Other
research also identified people 27.3 million people working in “high
contact-intensive” jobs such as barbers and stylists, airline attendants,
and food and beverage service.

這份分析源自於之前另一項聯準會的研究，發現6680萬來自於銷售、製造業、食品加工業
等的工作是屬於容易失業的族群。另外一項統計，2730萬的工作來自於夜店，時裝業，
飛行員、食品飲料服務業等屬於需要與人密切接觸的行業。

The paper then took an average of those workers and estimated a loss of just
over 47 million positions. That would bring the U.S. unemployment rolls to
52.8 million, or more than three times worse than the peak of the Great
Recession. The 30% unemployment rate would top the Great Depression peak of
24.9%.

本次分析，平均上述的兩大種類的工作，得到4700萬的職位，5280萬的失業人口。
其為1929年經濟大蕭條尖峰時期的失業人口的3倍。
30%失業率比1929年經濟大蕭條的最高的24.9%失業率還要高。

The one potential bright side is the likelihood that the downturn could be
comparatively brief.
好消息是這個衝擊可能可以因為經濟振興方案有所緩解。

During a CNBC interview last week, Bullard said the jobless number “will be
unparalleled, but don’t get discouraged. This is a special quarter, and once
the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything
intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine.”

在之前的報導中，Bullard提到本次的失業率是空前的。不過這是個特別的時期，只要
病毒控制下來，而且我們沒有犯錯，之後一切會完好如初。


3.心得/評論：

之前聯準會所做的降息，無限QE的決定來自於其一開始預估的經濟崩潰會比1929年的
經濟大蕭條來的嚴重，不過相較於1929年當時的金本位，聯準會無法無限印鈔。
在這個鈔票想印多少就印多少的信用貨幣的年代，
是不是人類就從此擺脫經濟衰退的命運呢？


最後拜託道瓊快快下跌，救救肥宅我花2萬元美金買在94元的道瓊3倍反SDOW。
肥宅今年的新遊戲都沒錢買了Q^Q
https://imgur.com/dwCxuCN

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