美國聯儲會議紀要 - 歐元

全文網址

http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20120620.pdf

美聯儲會議紀要：
美聯儲官員對於美聯儲未來的貨幣政策有所分歧，
一些聯儲官員認為更多的刺激措施是必要的。
大多數美聯儲官員認為通脹壓力下降，
美國財政政策對於第三季度美國經濟形成威脅，
更多的財政緊縮政策對美國經濟構成下行風險，
大部分聯儲官員認為失業率在未來5-6年將恢復正常。
2名美聯儲官員認為未來應該擴大債券購買規模，
大部分美聯儲官員認為美國經濟增長有放緩跡象，
幾位美聯儲官員希望研究新的寬鬆政策貨幣政策工具，
歐元區債務危機增加美國經濟不確定性。


CNN簡評
http://tinyurl.com/chyp6pb

Fed officials fear risks of more easing

Bernanke: 'The outlook has changed'

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Minutes just released from the Federal Reserve's
latest meeting show the central bank is wary that its efforts to boost the
economy also come with certain risks.

The Fed has been buying unprecedented amounts of Treasuries since 2008 in an
effort to push interest rates as low as possible, thereby stimulating the
economy

Calls for QE3 grow as economy wanes
"Some members noted the risk that continued purchases of longer-term Treasury
securities could, at some point, lead to deterioration in the functioning of
the Treasury securities market that could undermine the intended effects of
the policy," the minutes said.

The minutes go on to say that at the moment, Fed officials "generally agreed
that such risks seemed low."

Calls for more easing are growing louder from Wall Street. While the Fed
discussed that possibility at its meeting, members also noted that they don't
fully understand the risks of taking their easing efforts too far.

"A few members observed that it would be helpful to have a better
understanding of how large the Federal Reserve's asset purchases would have
to be to cause a meaningful deterioration in securities market functioning,
and of the potential costs of such deterioration for the economy as a whole,"
the minutes said.

鬍鬚伯：前景已經改變了

簡單來說，
聯儲會最新會議表明央行剛剛公佈的會議紀要是持謹慎態度，
少數官員認為應該推行更進一步的寬鬆政策，
但是其他官員普遍認為推行更多的刺激方案也會帶來一定的風險。
如果繼續購買更多的長期債券，
可能會影響到國庫券市場的運作，
導致政策效果較預期中惡化。
目前這些風險還比較低。
(但是如果推行更加寬鬆的政策就難說了)
雖然華爾街對於QE3的呼聲高漲，
但是目前他們還不太了解這些政策會帶來的風險。
一些委員已經注意到，
美國聯儲會對於資產購買可能會對證券市場的運作帶來威脅，
以及這種情況惡化對於經濟成本潛在的影響。


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