美台21世紀貿易倡議啟動 深化雙邊經貿關 - 股票QA

By Ingrid
at 2022-06-01T22:12
at 2022-06-01T22:12
Table of Contents
依照各方面的綜合發展
個人預判
2024之後 台灣會越來越多人移民
原因一樣
由台積電帶起的風潮
過去 台灣每年約2-3萬人出國留學
移民每年也有約 4-5萬人
之後會更多
美國最強的唯一原因也是這個
吸引最好的人才過去
從二戰 開發核彈 到現在矽谷
美國為了強化半導體產業
也會做一樣的事
老黃 蘇媽 賽林斯
就算是intel 蘋果
費半成股 那些公司
華人 數量都不少 而且很重要
______
台灣要儘早對這件事 提早轉型
哪件事呢?
「大量高級人才流出」
給各位幾個數字
2021年
台灣結婚對數只剩下11萬
過往10-15%外籍新娘/ 外籍新郎
2012-2018都維持兩萬對
離婚率40%
生育率是0.9%
出生已經不到14萬人
後面還會劇烈下跌
再加上我上面說的 每年移民的人數
後面移民到國外的人口還會加劇
若按照這趨勢比例發展下去
大概到了22世紀
運氣好的話台灣人口還有 600萬人
2022是2330萬
2040大概剩1900萬
2060大概剩1400萬
2080大概剩900萬
國發會每次預估上面的數字 都會有 三種預估
高 中 低 三種
結果每次實際上都遠低於 「低估值」
最新的預估 是預估到2070年 總數剩下1500萬
但按照慣例還會比這低很多
而這樣的人口劇烈減少的過程
是伴隨著 極高的 老人扶養比
剛開始是 平均四個人養一個65歲以上的老人
然後是三個人養一個老人
等各位老了 路上超過一半的人 都50歲以上
這個趨勢 其實十年前就應該要有大動作應對了
可惜....我們都在吵有的沒的 @@
--
個人預判
2024之後 台灣會越來越多人移民
原因一樣
由台積電帶起的風潮
過去 台灣每年約2-3萬人出國留學
移民每年也有約 4-5萬人
之後會更多
美國最強的唯一原因也是這個
吸引最好的人才過去
從二戰 開發核彈 到現在矽谷
美國為了強化半導體產業
也會做一樣的事
老黃 蘇媽 賽林斯
就算是intel 蘋果
費半成股 那些公司
華人 數量都不少 而且很重要
______
台灣要儘早對這件事 提早轉型
哪件事呢?
「大量高級人才流出」
給各位幾個數字
2021年
台灣結婚對數只剩下11萬
過往10-15%外籍新娘/ 外籍新郎
2012-2018都維持兩萬對
離婚率40%
生育率是0.9%
出生已經不到14萬人
後面還會劇烈下跌
再加上我上面說的 每年移民的人數
後面移民到國外的人口還會加劇
若按照這趨勢比例發展下去
大概到了22世紀
運氣好的話台灣人口還有 600萬人
2022是2330萬
2040大概剩1900萬
2060大概剩1400萬
2080大概剩900萬
國發會每次預估上面的數字 都會有 三種預估
高 中 低 三種
結果每次實際上都遠低於 「低估值」
最新的預估 是預估到2070年 總數剩下1500萬
但按照慣例還會比這低很多
而這樣的人口劇烈減少的過程
是伴隨著 極高的 老人扶養比
剛開始是 平均四個人養一個65歲以上的老人
然後是三個人養一個老人
等各位老了 路上超過一半的人 都50歲以上
這個趨勢 其實十年前就應該要有大動作應對了
可惜....我們都在吵有的沒的 @@
--
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