美元疲弱 羅傑斯看油價:要上200美元(內含個人觀點) - 理財

By Donna
at 2008-01-10T19:25
at 2008-01-10T19:25
Table of Contents
( 2007/11/28 08:17 永豐金證券 )
由於美元持續走弱,讓以美元為結算單位的商品價格持續走高,國際原油期貨直逼每桶
100美元大關,金價則創出近二十多年新高。而投資大師:吉姆·羅傑斯就預言,商品市
場可能還有7至15年的牛市,油價也上看至每桶200美元。
他說,從過去的經驗來看,一旦商品市場進入牛市週期,至今會持續15~23年,這次牛市
週期開始於1999年,至今已有8年,所以牛市預估可持續到2014年至2022年。而且從過去
的另一種經驗看,商品市場與股票市場的發展常背道而馳,也就是說當商品出現牛市的時
候,已發展國家的股市將可能會陷入熊市。這種情況在上世紀70至80年代初發生過一次,
目前歷史正在重演,因此,投資商品的回報比股市更有吸引力。
在眾多商品中,羅傑斯除了看好能源外,農產品也是他注重的投資商品,主要是因為農產
品價格與歷史高位仍有一段距離,所以未來上升的潛力相當可觀。
他也認為目前美國經濟成長趨緩,對商品的消費將因此下降,但他認為,亞洲、拉丁美洲
及中東等地的基礎建設正積極展開,加上人民生活品質得到改善,對各種商品的需求將會
增加,長遠來看,新興市場國家的消費將會使得商品市場還有一段榮景。
個人觀點
之前有人問油價長期上漲, 有多長期
羅傑斯認為7~15年牛市 油價上看200美元, 以國去油價上漲的趨勢
是有可能的,在前一篇提到天達環球能源基金的20年以來績效
其實長期投資這隻投資石油產業相關企業的基金
也是不錯的選擇
畢竟能源類長期向上的趨勢 從過去到現在不變
除非這些年裡突然科技大躍進,使得替代能源可以替代大部分的石油
不過相信羅傑斯也考慮到這一部份了,畢竟石油可不是只有加油才用得到
你生活四週許多東西都是需要石油來製成的
--
Richie's理財觀點
有別於一般的理財部落格 這裡大部分都是Richie獨特原創的理財觀點,
以特別的角度為您切入,讓您每天都有新的發現,這裡鼓勵並引領您建立獨立思考的能力
以建立成功的理財觀
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/richie-chen
--
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