美債殖利率 - 投資

By Yuri
at 2023-04-23T21:15
at 2023-04-23T21:15
Table of Contents
※ 引述《djo (cder)》之銘言:
: ※ 引述《mfcke (遇到低能就是黑單)》之銘言:
: : 看一下自己文章跟最後自己推文
: : 應該算是沒誤人子弟 沒誤人財富
: : 現在看是理所當然 別忘了 當初我這種立場超逆風
: : 一堆開後照鏡 堅持什麼 要升息超過通膨 升到7%
: : 那期間推文 發文
: : 立場我這種升到四趴五趴差不多的
: : 都是被嘴 被嘲笑 但是堅持信念
: : 美國不具有長期高利率的能力 僅此一條
: : 單純看聯準會 財政部那資產負債表 就覺得不行
: : 問我 3%以上長債還是依然能繼續購買
: : 不過我最近獲利出場一些 下週要補一間預售
: : 但是偏向風險比較高房產操作 就不推薦了
: : ----
: : Sent from BePTT on my iPhone 11
: 推文寫了很多分析,
: 但其實投資並不是在比預測的,
: 而是在比賺錢的
: 現在bnd 的 ytm 是4.2%
: 而S&P500的E/P是5.2%左右
: 算上股利還要課稅的話,
: 實質報酬已經與債差不多
: (4/6更新,此段依據推文更新數字)
: 債券波動小又報酬差不多,
: 但債券不抗通膨,
: 肯定不能全配,
: 怎麼辦?
: 就是移動資產部位而已
: 標準可能是股債各半,
: 現在認為債券划算了,
: 就增配部位,股債可能移到4/6或3/7
最近再考慮更換
我2021年9月進場,vti+vxus+bnd,配置...
看看現在3檔平均報酬率-15%
想賣掉vti,bnd換vglt
畢竟美股也算高了,升息成5.25%持續一段時間,應該也會回檔
bnd跌15%,若當時買vglt會賠30%...
至於vxus,持股其中的中國股是低檔,其他亞歐股也算高檔....
乾脆全賣換vglt
這樣就全留債....好像也怪怪的
還在想
: 看後面看對了還是看錯了,
: 再決定怎麼調整,
: 但總歸來說,
: 怎麼調整應該都要以會賺錢為前提
: 在那邊分析了一大堆,
: 看錯了,怎麼辦?
投資有風險,賺賠自負全責
--
: ※ 引述《mfcke (遇到低能就是黑單)》之銘言:
: : 看一下自己文章跟最後自己推文
: : 應該算是沒誤人子弟 沒誤人財富
: : 現在看是理所當然 別忘了 當初我這種立場超逆風
: : 一堆開後照鏡 堅持什麼 要升息超過通膨 升到7%
: : 那期間推文 發文
: : 立場我這種升到四趴五趴差不多的
: : 都是被嘴 被嘲笑 但是堅持信念
: : 美國不具有長期高利率的能力 僅此一條
: : 單純看聯準會 財政部那資產負債表 就覺得不行
: : 問我 3%以上長債還是依然能繼續購買
: : 不過我最近獲利出場一些 下週要補一間預售
: : 但是偏向風險比較高房產操作 就不推薦了
: : ----
: : Sent from BePTT on my iPhone 11
: 推文寫了很多分析,
: 但其實投資並不是在比預測的,
: 而是在比賺錢的
: 現在bnd 的 ytm 是4.2%
: 而S&P500的E/P是5.2%左右
: 算上股利還要課稅的話,
: 實質報酬已經與債差不多
: (4/6更新,此段依據推文更新數字)
: 債券波動小又報酬差不多,
: 但債券不抗通膨,
: 肯定不能全配,
: 怎麼辦?
: 就是移動資產部位而已
: 標準可能是股債各半,
: 現在認為債券划算了,
: 就增配部位,股債可能移到4/6或3/7
最近再考慮更換
我2021年9月進場,vti+vxus+bnd,配置...
看看現在3檔平均報酬率-15%
想賣掉vti,bnd換vglt
畢竟美股也算高了,升息成5.25%持續一段時間,應該也會回檔
bnd跌15%,若當時買vglt會賠30%...
至於vxus,持股其中的中國股是低檔,其他亞歐股也算高檔....
乾脆全賣換vglt
這樣就全留債....好像也怪怪的
還在想
: 看後面看對了還是看錯了,
: 再決定怎麼調整,
: 但總歸來說,
: 怎麼調整應該都要以會賺錢為前提
: 在那邊分析了一大堆,
: 看錯了,怎麼辦?
投資有風險,賺賠自負全責
--
Tags:
投資
All Comments

By Olive
at 2023-04-28T01:53
at 2023-04-28T01:53

By Wallis
at 2023-05-02T06:31
at 2023-05-02T06:31

By Suhail Hany
at 2023-05-06T11:08
at 2023-05-06T11:08
所以你對 vti+vxus+bnd 的指數化投資法 信心崩盤了嗎?

By Steve
at 2023-05-10T15:46
at 2023-05-10T15:46

By Jessica
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Regina
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Ina
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Dorothy
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Lydia
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Tristan Cohan
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Jessica
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
現在長債etf的配息報酬挺好的

By Adele
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Gary
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Vanessa
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Tracy
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Andrew
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
了兩年怎麼會覺得VGLT可以握超過兩年

By Belly
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Jessica
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
搞不好早就反映了

By Hazel
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
算了==

By Anthony
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
是主動投資,看你的擇時準不準罷了

By Harry
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
穩定部位也選定存 相對沒這麼慘

By Connor
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Mia
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Lucy
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
不舒服阿 所以才會想賣

By Skylar Davis
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Erin
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Kristin
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
都多講的

By Ophelia
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
問題

By Faithe
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By William
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
不安

By Madame
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Cara
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
都是漲的....開始降息,利率減1%,存續期間18年,就漲18%

By Edwina
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Tom
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Tom
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Kama
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Rosalind
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Oscar
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
上要通膨壓到3%以內,
目前比較難預設的是 要多久之後以後聯準會才能達到這個目
標

By Elvira
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Callum
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Catherine
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Delia
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Charlotte
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
20~25% 若沒有甚麼黑天鵝犀牛 股市指數大概三年就會超過了

By David
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Valerie
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Megan
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Megan
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Cara
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Connor
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Jacob
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Damian
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
華爾街一半以上的債券專家都是笨蛋了。

By Rosalind
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
如果長債這麼有利可圖,這些賣的專家們在想什麼?

By Puput
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Daniel
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Daniel
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Emily
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Freda
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Audriana
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Wallis
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
雖然看法很有問題,但運氣好還是可以賭贏。

By Quanna
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
部分所謂錯誤的概念,也許也有個40%的勝率;正確的概念,勝
算或許也就55%。單一事件來說,概念正確的人並不一定會勝過
概念錯誤的人。但累積起來,採取比較正確的行動的人,長期
來說領先的機會還是比較大的。
如果你對這個想法很有信心,你就去做吧。但即使結果不錯,
可能也不足以證明其正確性。

By Audriana
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
會再升息一丁點,然後衰退到來(或通膨降溫),會再降息
但最終降息幅度不會大(即使是衰退),降到1%左右不可能了

By Anthony
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Edwina
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Valerie
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Ethan
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
顯趨勢的時候 可能才比較適合被動投資

By Linda
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Caitlin
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Olga
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Callum
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Xanthe
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Yedda
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Lydia
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Freda
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
拉高台股部位的比重也可以

By Yuri
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
動也比長天債低

By Hazel
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Jacky
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Rachel
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Una
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Madame
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Genevieve
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Ingrid
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Ivy
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
個人覺得熊市反而該買股,未來漲起來會比債更多,除非你
是準備要退休了不能接受太大震盪

By Oscar
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Frederica
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Vanessa
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Emma
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
不會又去安裝來趕快賣股 我個人是從比較低的股票部位開
始訓練 讓自己心麻腳麻對大跌沒感覺

By Victoria
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Zanna
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Rachel
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01
指數ETF上 這樣也行

By Hedda
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
產

By Lydia
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Brianna
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39

By Margaret
at 2023-05-09T01:01
at 2023-05-09T01:01

By Michael
at 2023-05-13T05:39
at 2023-05-13T05:39
年就想要全部賣掉改成賭短線債券降息,建議長短線投資
的資金分開管理吧!不然只會被別人帶風向一直當韭菜而已
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