經濟學人預測:拜登大勝川普 - 股票
By Callum
at 2020-07-26T19:47
at 2020-07-26T19:47
Table of Contents
經濟學人預測:拜登大勝川普
2020-07-25 23:47 聯合報 / 華盛頓記者張文馨/廿五日電
美東時間廿六日,美國總統大選倒數一百天。根據經濟學人預測最新選舉人票,準民主黨
總統參選人拜登將獲得三百五十二張選票,現任總統川普得一百八十六票;民調顯示,川
普不僅在搖擺州節節敗退,更危及共和黨票倉。
據經濟學人(Economist)的模型預測,川普和拜登在三月的選舉人團得票互有領先,三
月中過後,拜登取得領先優勢,一路拉開差距。經濟學人是以全國和地方民調結果加以計
算,分別估算出兩人得票區間,並以中位數作為最終估計值。
美國總統選舉需經過民眾投票、各州組成選舉人團再投票,兩階段決定下一任總統,經濟
學人廿三日的估計,拜登可取得兩百五十五票到四百一十五票,川普得票估計區間為一百
二十三票到兩百八十三票。選舉人團總票數為五百卅八票,總統當選門檻為兩百七十票。
以全國民調來看,經濟學人的每日民調中,拜登自六月下旬起,以九個百分點領先川普的
態勢相當穩定。
在幕僚建議下,川普廿一日重回演講台,主持每日疫情簡報記者會,盼重塑川普正領導抗
疫的形象,以拉抬民調數字;記者會只舉行兩次,他照稿宣讀、不與現場記者唇槍舌戰,
且隨身攜帶口罩的新風格,顯然尚未重新贏得選民親睞。
親共和黨的福斯新聞網廿二日公布三個搖擺州最新民調,拜登均領先,兩人差距在密西根
州為九個百分點、賓州十一個百分點,明尼蘇達州達十三個百分點。這都是川普二○一六
年獲勝關鍵選區,最新民調顯示,拜登已重新掌握傳統民主黨票倉賓州和密西根州。
另一個更令川普感到憂心的數據是,昆尼匹克民意調查(Quinnipiac Poll)在七月十六
日到廿日調查共和黨票倉佛羅里達州發現,川普支持度首度跌破四成,美國有線電視新聞
網(CNN)統計,這是自三月以來的各家民調中,差距最大的一次,拜登首度在佛州奪
下過半支持度。
以選舉人票前五名的選區來看,共和黨佔優勢的是德州(卅八張)與佛州(廿九張),昆
尼匹克最新的民調顯示,兩人支持度差距不大,拜登支持度為四十五%,川普為四十四%
。
福斯新聞網(Fox News)分析,拜登在女性選民、非白人選民和郊區居民中獲得強勁支持
,與此同時,川普正在流失男性和白人支持者。但福斯新聞網也指出,距今選舉還有三個
多月,還有很多選民尚未決定投票給誰,選情仍有變數。
https://udn.com/news/story/6813/4731177
心得/評論:
你川真的要BYE了 民主黨上台後是否會繼續灑錢 還是回復國家正軌呢?
--
2020-07-25 23:47 聯合報 / 華盛頓記者張文馨/廿五日電
美東時間廿六日,美國總統大選倒數一百天。根據經濟學人預測最新選舉人票,準民主黨
總統參選人拜登將獲得三百五十二張選票,現任總統川普得一百八十六票;民調顯示,川
普不僅在搖擺州節節敗退,更危及共和黨票倉。
據經濟學人(Economist)的模型預測,川普和拜登在三月的選舉人團得票互有領先,三
月中過後,拜登取得領先優勢,一路拉開差距。經濟學人是以全國和地方民調結果加以計
算,分別估算出兩人得票區間,並以中位數作為最終估計值。
美國總統選舉需經過民眾投票、各州組成選舉人團再投票,兩階段決定下一任總統,經濟
學人廿三日的估計,拜登可取得兩百五十五票到四百一十五票,川普得票估計區間為一百
二十三票到兩百八十三票。選舉人團總票數為五百卅八票,總統當選門檻為兩百七十票。
以全國民調來看,經濟學人的每日民調中,拜登自六月下旬起,以九個百分點領先川普的
態勢相當穩定。
在幕僚建議下,川普廿一日重回演講台,主持每日疫情簡報記者會,盼重塑川普正領導抗
疫的形象,以拉抬民調數字;記者會只舉行兩次,他照稿宣讀、不與現場記者唇槍舌戰,
且隨身攜帶口罩的新風格,顯然尚未重新贏得選民親睞。
親共和黨的福斯新聞網廿二日公布三個搖擺州最新民調,拜登均領先,兩人差距在密西根
州為九個百分點、賓州十一個百分點,明尼蘇達州達十三個百分點。這都是川普二○一六
年獲勝關鍵選區,最新民調顯示,拜登已重新掌握傳統民主黨票倉賓州和密西根州。
另一個更令川普感到憂心的數據是,昆尼匹克民意調查(Quinnipiac Poll)在七月十六
日到廿日調查共和黨票倉佛羅里達州發現,川普支持度首度跌破四成,美國有線電視新聞
網(CNN)統計,這是自三月以來的各家民調中,差距最大的一次,拜登首度在佛州奪
下過半支持度。
以選舉人票前五名的選區來看,共和黨佔優勢的是德州(卅八張)與佛州(廿九張),昆
尼匹克最新的民調顯示,兩人支持度差距不大,拜登支持度為四十五%,川普為四十四%
。
福斯新聞網(Fox News)分析,拜登在女性選民、非白人選民和郊區居民中獲得強勁支持
,與此同時,川普正在流失男性和白人支持者。但福斯新聞網也指出,距今選舉還有三個
多月,還有很多選民尚未決定投票給誰,選情仍有變數。
https://udn.com/news/story/6813/4731177
心得/評論:
你川真的要BYE了 民主黨上台後是否會繼續灑錢 還是回復國家正軌呢?
--
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