紐幣的跌勢反應經濟基本面 - 理財

網址如下 是國外著名財經評論網站彭博社的文章
(如果你沒看過這個網頁的文章我覺得你在金融界不用生存了)

內容大致翻譯如下
紐西蘭央行官員認為紐幣今年對美元跌9%是反應經濟基本面
因為紐西蘭財政部預測紐西蘭今年經濟成長會減緩到1%(去年是2.2%)
紐西蘭央行官員也認為這是匯率的循環性調整 而且之前紐幣的匯率過度高估
再者紐幣和美金的利差縮小也造成紐幣大跌

http://0rz.net/471oa

N.Z. Dollar's Drop Reflects Economic Fundamentals (Update1)
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar's 9 percent decline this year
better reflects the fundamentals of the economy, Reserve Bank Governor Alan
Bollard said.

The currency is the world's worst-performing currency this year amid
expectations that economic growth will slow, reducing the attractiveness of the
currency. The Treasury department yesterday forecast growth will slow to 1
percent this year from 2.2 percent in 2005.

The currency decline was ``a cyclical adjustment to better reflect the
underlying fundamentals of the economy,'' Bollard said in the bank's Financial
Stability Report released in Wellington today. There has been a correction from
an ``unjustified and over-valued exchange rate.''

Expectations of a narrowing yield differential may lead to reduced demand from
offshore investors in the year ahead, the Reserve Bank said. Bollard on April
27 left the benchmark interest rate at 7.25 percent and said he is unlikely
to raise the rate further.

Policy makers in Japan and Europe are expected to increase benchmark rates in
coming months. The Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates for the 16th
straight time on May 10.

Also weighing on the currency outlook is expectations that there won't be
demand from overseas investors for New Zealand dollar bonds sold to retail
investors in Japan and Europe. Sales of Uridashi and Eurobonds the past two
years have buoyed the currency and many of those issues are maturing this year.

Uridashi sales are part of the cyclical demand for the currency, which could be
easing as economic growth slows, Deputy- Governor Adrian Orr told reporters.

Investors may ``look elsewhere for more high yielding currencies as interest rates globally are rising,'' Orr said. ``The question remains how much of these maturing Uridashi will be rolled over.''



To contact the reporter on this story:
Tracy Withers in Wellington at [email protected].
Last Updated: May 18, 2006 20:17 EDT

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