第二波"雷曼式"衝擊月底或來襲超準預言家 - 股票

By Gilbert
at 2019-08-16T16:01
at 2019-08-16T16:01
Table of Contents
成功預測了周三美股大跌的野村證券再次發布了新的預測,而且這一次,它還給投資者準備了4大應對策略。
野村證券在成功預測了8月14號的美股見頂後,又發布了第二次預測,野村證券認為,第二波雷曼式衝擊將在8月底或9月初到來。這一次,野村還給各位投資者準備了4個操作建議。
野村證券的分析師Masanari Takada表示,第二波市場衝擊將比第一次更為嚴重,就像一場破壞力更大的餘震。如果人們將可能到來的衝擊視為尾部風險而選擇忽視,那麼這些人就是在犯一個天大的錯誤。
野村證券的量化團隊還指出,債券收益率的大幅下滑已經嚴重波及到了股市,如今西方的股市,尤其是美股正遭遇大規模拋售。野村證券衡量美股市場情緒的綜合指數迅速從8月13日的-2.6降至8月14日的-6.5,而其衡量全球股市情緒的綜合指數也從-3.1降至-4.8,均為去年12月美股崩盤以來的最低水平。
對此,野村證券還提出了4點操作建議:
1、買入低貝塔係數和防禦性股票,賣出高貝塔係數和周期性股票。DM債券市場10年期和2年期債券倒掛與全球股市(MSCI ACWI)中防禦類股和周期性類股的相對錶現之間存在鬆散的相關性。雖然債券市場以往並不能完全準確預測經濟衰退,但保守地轉向貝塔係數較低、防禦性較強的股票是有道理的,因為市場參與者也會對衰退更加恐懼。
2、現在就寄希望於股市期貨強勁反彈,開始反向買進還為時過早。Takada認為,現在買進意味著要抓住一把掉下來的刀,更好的機會可能在兩週後出現。正如野村證券的定量分析師所指出的那樣,當商品交易顧問(CTA)清空未平倉多頭頭寸,並開始做空時,就應該考慮做多反向操作,以抓住空頭壓力反彈的入場時機。
3、傾向於做多VIX及其他隱含股票波動率指標,做空時間將在第二波拋售之後。商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)數據顯示,投機客仍持有VIX期貨的淨空頭倉位,截至8月6日為止,淨空頭合約達8萬份。鑑於波動率指數期貨UX1和UX2之間存在現貨溢價,投機者可能會繼續買入波動率指數期貨,以彌補空頭頭寸。
4、基於基本面指標反向交易。全球市場可能會越來越多地敦促美聯儲大幅降息。因此,股市投資者可能會把“好消息就是壞消息”的解讀應用於即將發布的美國宏觀經濟數據,進行反向操作。
最後,投資者應該警惕經濟衰退的到來。2年期和10年期美債收益率曲線的倒掛,美股的短暫反彈迅速止住,這似乎將美股市場情緒推入另一種模式,即預示著未來形勢將進一步惡化。野村證券總結道,美股市場情緒不佳,這也是經濟衰退的強烈信號。
--------
心得:
成功預測第一次雷曼式崩盤的這次諸葛野村給四個錦囊。
1.買貝他值低的
2.清空做多期貨
3.買Vix
4.跟著新聞反著做
抓緊機會只要方向對了準備雷曼式爆賺發大財
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Sent from JPTT on my Samsung SM-G935F.
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