當股板普遍出現隨空隨賺的思維,是否該多? - 股票QA

By Cara
at 2022-05-19T14:44
at 2022-05-19T14:44
Table of Contents
現在股板隨著美國聯準會頻頻釋放鷹派訊息普遍看空
因為聯準會鮑威爾及其他決策官員
堅持要循環升息至中性利率3%左右
將美國通膨壓抑至2%
並縮減資產負債表從六月開始每月收回475億美元資金
預計從市場收回一兆美金
市場也隨著聯準會的升息+縮表訊息
今年以來頻繁地出現突然閃崩大跌,或者開低走低收最低的情況
S&P 500短短95個交易日
就出現18個交易日下跌幅度超過1.5%
S&P 500今年迄今跌了約18%
現在股板的空頭氣氛又開始像2020年3月份一樣
出現空頭瀰漫,隨空隨賺的訊號
當時熊市持續了大概兩個月之久
S&P 500走勢跟當時情況其實很像
都是市場突然會噴一兩根大根的
然後用力反殺破到最低
雖然時空背景不太一樣
那時候是因為新冠疫情爆發
現在則是聯準會要升息加縮表
但2020當時和現在的
聯準會的主席都是同一個人:鮑威爾
以歷史經驗來看,每次股板出現空頭瀰漫的訊息
都是最好的築底作多訊號
這次雖然有聯準會這個超強力的利空訊號
但也已經反映在股市上面了
現在是否是一個築底加倉的好時機呢?
--
因為聯準會鮑威爾及其他決策官員
堅持要循環升息至中性利率3%左右
將美國通膨壓抑至2%
並縮減資產負債表從六月開始每月收回475億美元資金
預計從市場收回一兆美金
市場也隨著聯準會的升息+縮表訊息
今年以來頻繁地出現突然閃崩大跌,或者開低走低收最低的情況
S&P 500短短95個交易日
就出現18個交易日下跌幅度超過1.5%
S&P 500今年迄今跌了約18%
現在股板的空頭氣氛又開始像2020年3月份一樣
出現空頭瀰漫,隨空隨賺的訊號
當時熊市持續了大概兩個月之久
S&P 500走勢跟當時情況其實很像
都是市場突然會噴一兩根大根的
然後用力反殺破到最低
雖然時空背景不太一樣
那時候是因為新冠疫情爆發
現在則是聯準會要升息加縮表
但2020當時和現在的
聯準會的主席都是同一個人:鮑威爾
以歷史經驗來看,每次股板出現空頭瀰漫的訊息
都是最好的築底作多訊號
這次雖然有聯準會這個超強力的利空訊號
但也已經反映在股市上面了
現在是否是一個築底加倉的好時機呢?
--
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